Maestrobjwa

On 10/6/2018 at 11:01 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh how I pray  

With my luck it’ll be another 09-10 with suppression depression in NE and monster after monster down there. If so, I’ll pay double the going rate for your place out near McHenry.

Just out of curiousity...just how often does a NE suppression pattern setup like it did in 09-10? Lol Gotta be rare, right?

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Here's comes the squeeze play for the 95 corridor. Michael band pushing northwest and cold pressing southeast.

Man I hate our geography sometimes...lol Which one appears to be winning? 

Sigh...just don't know what it's been this year...just some kind of anti-weather excitement forcefield over the I-95 corridor. Just no matter what...but the shore has done well all year. Just can't get anything in! It's been a year of blocks with just enough bad timing to make us just miss...smh Hope next year is better!

7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Nino's generally aren't cold winters. Weak is the best chance. Just going off recent Nino's since 2000 and warmer background conditions. Even with 09-10's exceptionally high snowfall the winter itself wasn't very cold. The Feb back to back storms melted fast. Same with the Dec storm. We did have some solid cold in Jan/early Feb tho but it was also a record blocking year. 

I don't put much stock in seasonal models when it comes to temps but the cfs and CanSips are AN DJF. Jamstec is also AN iirc. That's not why I think this winter will be at or above normal though. Just going off of climo and the fact that the northern hemisphere has been running warm for years in general. 

So essentially...around here, if ya see stretches of downright, teens/single digits frigid snow is less likely (which happens more in a La Niña?) But, if ya see temps that are the average to slightly below-average...more storms (but even then ya need more atmosphere stuff to battle that 32 degree line just cold enough?) Mercy...he have got to have the most complex region for getting snow in the entire country!!! Now, I take it 2014-15 had said frigid temps but also included above-average snow because it was more of a negative-neutral?

3 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The closest sstas for mid - late September is 2004...slightly concerning

Hey, I ain't too concerned about one more crap winter...because if history is any indicator...the next one COULD be good if not great! Our time is coming...lol

9 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

LOL. Nah, you caught me. Actually didn't look at the precip departures. Got so hung up on the 500's and following the torch in the arctic that I never even looked at them. Glancing over them now and December is probably indicative of systems running to our west and though the 500's are pretty zonal it does have the hints of troughing setting up in the west which would support that idea. Jan's precip departures look promising and its distribution would possibly suggest the threat of Miller A's? Considering that it is primo climo for cold it might not matter as much if the pv is farther north then desirable and the cold with it . Feb though I am not so sure the neg departures are result of suppression when you see the pv located so far to the north. Think the positive anomalies to our south are more a function of an active southern jet especially when I see + departures in southern Cali/Arizona into northern Baja. When I also see + precip anomalies just north of Maine I think the Cansips may be suggesting we see southern systems run off the SE coast and then turn up with the -Nao in place. Unfortunately it looks to favor a more eastern solution with that run up the coast so we are seeing the NorEaster's impacts much farther to the north bypassing our region. This would probably suggest that the Cansips favors an eastern based -NAO.

Sounds too much like last winter...lol So instead of Nina driving that effect, it would be an east-based NAO?

55 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

They are DCA numbers.

That'll do it...lol (what is with their measurements, anyway??)

12 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I was thinking the same thing about the 3.50-5 sweet spot! My question is how on Earth did 1977-78 1976-77 have such a high anomaly!

Yeah that is kinda weird...wonder what the total rainfall was for that year? (this year it just feels like it's gonna keep raining buckets...lol) 

P.S. That 09-10 snowfall amount isn't quite accurate is it? Wasn't it like 70 inches or something? Lol

35 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I added more years and another column for October precipitation leading into Modoki El Ninos.  October precip relative to average @ DCA may give a good estimate of how good a winter we get!

Modoki El Ninos (DCA)
Winter	SOI	Winter Snow	+/- Winter Snow	Winter NAO	Nov Temp	Dec Temp	Nov NAO	Dec NAO	Oct Precip
1952-53	Weak	8.3"	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.66" -
1953-54	Weak	18"	+	+	-	+	+	+	3.73" +
1958-59	Weak	4.9"	-	-	N	-	+	-	2.35" -
1976-77	Weak	11.1"	-	-	-	-	+ (N)	-	7.76" +
1977-78	Weak	22.7"	+	N (+)	+	N / (-)	N	N	5.35" +
1979-80	Weak	20.1"	+	-	+	+	+	+	5.54" +
1986-87	Moderate	31.1"	+	N	-	+	+	+	2.01" -
1991-92	Strong	6.6"	-	+	-	+	+	+	2.03" -
1994-95	Weak/Moderate	10.1"	-	+	+	+	N	+	1.19" -
2002-03	Moderate	40.4"	+	N	-	-	-	N	5" +
2004-05	Weak	12.5"	-	N	+	N	N	+	1.74" -
2009-10	Moderate	46"	+	-	+	-	+	-	5.71" +

 

 

 

Dude I was just gonna ask if you could post an extended version of that chart, lol (I actually started looking up the precip totals myself...but had no idea which years were Modoki!) Thanks! Seems like 3.5-5 inches of rain is the sweet spot...lol (also interesting how we had a few instances of back-to-back Modokis....Wonder if that's setting up to happen again?...If so, our odds oughta be pretty good for either this winter, next winter, or both! 

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When will we get a drought update?  

The 54 inches of rain on the year are just a mirage...lol

1 hour ago, frd said:

Well it could be related to the area in the Pacific where the greatest lift is located and how strong   By just looking at 87 and 09  they were stronger Modaki El Ninos .  

If that is the case then stronger West based El Nino the better.  I am a bit confused because you have the largest area of sub surface warmth located in the West Pac right now. 

I think there is more to it than this though.  Going to have to see how the SSTs develop in the Gulf of Alaska as well.  The high lattitude blocking this season, or the lack of it, could be a game changer.  

Still very early to call things,  in a month we can get a decent idea on the evolution of the PV and we can get an idea as well about snow cover in Canada , the QBO,  and changes in the PAC and whether the El Nino is still going to be weak still and if there any any signs it going more East. 

I  even see the mention of a two year Nino, with next year's Nino being a significant event.  

I think that's only fair since we've had to endure a two-year Nina (blech). And also, if I were a betting man...that would put the odds of a better winter next winter instead of the upcoming winter...But hey, maybe we can kinda score this year and score more next year?  Minimum + Niño ftw!

13 minutes ago, frd said:

Not sure where this piece of the puzzle fits in, but  If I am understanding HM correctly then the walk cell for this winter is not in the favor of snow lovers in the Mid Atlanitc at least.  

 

 

This weather novice doesn't always understand his posts...lol But what is this "Walker cell"? And do we know what it's doing now? (the fact that 94/95 and 06/07 keep coming up in the discussion is one reason why I have some doubts about this winter...)

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Oh great...more data and wobbles to obsess over during a threat...lol (insert happy hour EURO!)

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

From what I have read, solar minimum will be reached by mid 2019...which bodes well for this season.

Now hang on...Do we usually benefit during the winter just before the minimum or just after? (Which side were we on in 09-10 and 95-96, for example?) I looked at a chart recently and I couldn't tell if the most recent minimum fell in 08 or 09 (of course winter 08-09 wasn't much, snow-wise, lol But then kaboom the next year! Same in 1994-95--not much then, but kaboom the next year!)

WE'RE ALIIIIIIIIIVE!!!! *Pant*...*pant*....Phew, who knew Hurricane Florence would turn into a cybercane and completely wreck the entire forum for days???? Wow!!! But from the digital wreckage...we rise!! 

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

You are a sound sleeper maybe, or there was a tremendous cutoff - torrential rains and lightning and booming thunder in the falls rd and Roland ave corridor for sure.

Nah, he's just a sound sleeper...lol It must've been all over the city (I live in the area not far from Morgan State and my house was rockin' and rollin'!)

1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

One of the more impressive T&L displays  in recent memory, too

Yeah that was some serious rolling thunder and seemingly extra-bright lightning...wow!

On 9/14/2018 at 10:43 PM, psuhoffman said:

It seems that whenever the solar cycle does reach its minimum shortly after there tends to be a blockbuster year. And it's not totally enso dependent. 2010 was the perfect storm of a solar minimum and perfect enso. But 1996 pulled it off with a Nina. 1977s unfavorable enso might have prevented a snowier outcome to a brutal cold winter. The minimum in the mid 60s delivered. But what most has in common was the nao moreso then enso. So maybe just not having a crap enso state is enough. Problem is we don't know if the cycle has bottomed or not. Is the "big year" this year or next. I think there is likely one coming but it might not be this winter. But I see no reasons to say for sure it's not or that this year can't at least be ok even if it's not. 

Now was 1977s also a solar minimum year? (Is that why you said a crappy enso prevented a snowier winter?) And is that to say solar minimum doesn't always come with a minimum? (Or would even an okay enso with a minimum be enough?)

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Now you've done it. We will have threat after threat and be under numerous warnings and they will all bust into 33/rain. 

Wonder if that's how it went down the last time we had a neutral after a 2 niñas...lol My expectations for this winter are so low that it's hard to imagine being too disappointed...I'm putting my cards in 2019-20 winter with a mod Niño! 

Now doesn't the hurricane activity mean that any Niño we get this year at all is gonna be really weak? (Or is it related at all? I was thinking in terms of the wind shear and such...Nino is bad for hurricanes, right?)

1 hour ago, griteater said:

The MEI update from 9/7 is locked in on neutral...

"With the MEI showing ENSO-neutral conditions, four key anomalies in the MEI component fields flag La Niña, compared to only one for El Niño. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase.  Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, southerly wind anomalies (V) to the north of the Equator and south of Hawai'i, and unusually warm temperatures (S and A) northeast of Australia. All of these anomalies are indicators of La Niña.  On the other hand, westerly wind anomalies (U) along and north of the Equator from the Maritime Continent to the dateline flag emerging El Niño conditions."

"Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral rankings. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018."

"Compared to last month, the odds for El Niño in 2018 remain very low, potentially joining the previous aborted events of 2017, 2014, and 2012 (except that those actually achieved a few months of El Niño conditions compared to none in 2018)."

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

Blech...(for those in the mid-Atlantic, that is!) Expectations lowered...but I wonder if this is a transitional year, and we get an El Niño next year? (Has it worked like that before?)

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am not even gonna talk science. There is no chance we fail 4 years in a row. No chance I tell ya.

Well, technically this would be the third year in the row since we did pull off the mega-blizzard in 2016!! My guess is that even if this year doesn't work out...maybe next year we get a mod El Niño and epicness!  (I've ready half-given up on this winter until we see some more positive trends. Coming off of La Niña last year? I just don't trust it, lol)

7 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

It is also pretty amazing how much colder everything is now v. August of 2015. 

Er...Wonder if that means that a neutral may end up being the final result? (And that perhaps winter of 19-20 will be El Niño?)

On 8/29/2018 at 7:40 AM, anotherman said:

I just always hope it says warm and wet for us since it says cold and snowy every single year and fails.  Sort of like Bustardi's "forecasts."

I read through some of it...For this winter, it actually isn't as snow-happy in it's predictions (in fact, this is the first one in the last several years where it didn't call for 1 to 2 feet of snow at some point). I get it just as a hobby...and it is kinda entertaining when it's right on a particular week (like this week...called for humid!). I find that it'll get certain things right on a given day/week (regardless of the time of year). So I realize I'm a bit on an island here, but I think their formula hits just enough times to call it a little more than luck.

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I see nothing that looks bad. Att all the key players are either ambiguous or in a positive state for a good winter. That guarantees nothing. We know we typically only get 2-3 very snowy winters a decade and we can get unlucky even in a year where the pattern is good...but right now we are "in the game" and that is all we can ask for heading into fall. 

Now this here...everytime you've said it I look back at this decade as a whole...And we've already succeeded that number with 4 (unless you don't count 2016). And really...I think the 60s were also an exception to that rule! (Sweet mercy we got a lot of snow that decade! At least BWI did anyway, lol)

That being said...what haven't liked hearing is analogs being thrown around for 1994-95 and 2006-2007....yuck, lol

1 hour ago, WxMatt21 said:

Well, I do discuss teleconnections and give them my best educated guess, and management likes us to put together a forecast, but I'm also very transparent about taking long range forecasts with a grain of salt. Trends are easier to nail than specifics, and that's what we try to do. Then you have those viewers who cling to their farmer's almanacs and will let us know if we say anything contrary to that haha!

Hi there! I'm from another forum, but I'm checking winter discussions across the boards: So, when ya said almanac, that got my attention because it always baffles me the times during the year when they DO get something right...How in the world do you think are they doing that? (Again, of course it ain't right all the time, but when it does hit it's kinda scary, lol)