Maestrobjwa

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I don’t care too much what it showed verbatim. Trend tonight is dangerous and needs to stop. Like ASAP.

Bruh I swear if this thing trends all rhe way to being pure sleet and ice...

You gotta wonder if the models got new data this evening because these aren't just ticks north but a big jump.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Being totally skunked isn’t possible - we’d at least get like 4” of sleet if this really got screwed up somehow. Which isn’t as cool but it’s interesting

4" of sleet on top of like 6-10" I guess?

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Oh get ready for the freak outs about amped / sleet in the storm thread.  

Guilty, lol But we still have a long ways to go...we legit don't know if this is gonna be a trend or not--or how far north it could go

Just now, Ji said:

I am not going to get mad at 15 inch storm with 2 inches of liquid after seeing dustings and trace storms all winter. At least we get the snow first

Yeah ain't mad, just worried about it getting worse by being too far north. At this juncture I'd hope the models haven't been so wrong that we get skunked completely by that. But it is 4 days away...

8 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

ugh, here comes the CMC to bring the mood down with a sleet bomb..

Always one model that has to crap on things...as long as the EURO doesn't do that it's OKAY...

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Its the CMC and it's on it's own.  Viable solution, but I'll wait for confirmation....up next Euro

Yeah it makes you wonder...hadn't conceived of too far north possibly being an issue but here we are with that as a possibility, smh I mean if this run were THE goalpost I could live with it (still close to a foot + sleet) But I worry about an even further north trend now (more mix or even rain scenarios?)

1 minute ago, bncho said:

CMC might be too amped LOL

If these are the new goalposts I think we can throw suppression worries out the window, lol

Just now, Nomz said:

Man what I say wrong lol. If Boston ends up with sig snow from this system we almost certainly got hammered. If we get hammered its more likely Boston does as well. Just the way this system is oriented.

I know what you meant--but your wording coulda been better. You said "or vice-versa" which isn't always true (i.e. the storms they get that we miss)

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

ICON = 20"

What a run.

Oh my goodness 

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

00z icon at very end of its run... And  it's still snowing at hour 120 for all of us. And more snow to come!

That's 18z

Edit: Ninja'd twice over, lol

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bruh that thing can't even get 48 seconds right!

We don't talk bad about the NAM when it shows something we want

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR at 48 hours

Bruh that thing can't even get 48 seconds right!

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

From a climatology/historical perspective, that's insane.

Like seriously...how often do you see that??

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This would be the thing that causes that 4 day reshuffle. May it fall in our favor. 

Reshuffle...nah we can keep the deck just the way it is That sounds foreboding-- like that new data getting ingested and we suddenly get skunked at 12z or something, lol I know that has a lower liklihood, but I don't wonder if "huge jumps" like that are still on the table.

2 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I don't want Ji representing any part of my subconscious!!!!!

For all who love snow...he does! Whether we like it or not, lolol

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

 

apply your own ratios 

I knew this run was gonna go nuclear as soon as @bncho said the sw ejected faster. Good gloppity!!

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 12z "traditional" Euro EPS really upped the ante for Philly. Several double digit hits, and only a few duds (less than 3"). Out of 50 members, I only count 11% (6 members) with less than 3" of snow. Everything else is warning level or better. Again, what a signal from Dr. No at this range.

 

 

And if THEY'RE starting to get double digits hits in there...

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

That's probably the closest the red has been to MD so far!

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

GFS OP  is prone to big jumps.  That’s why everyone says rely on ENS over 3 days out.  

And one part of our brains knows that. But the other part of our subconscious Ji represents yelled and screamed anyway

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z.

Lolol Bruh what is wrong with this thing?

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Totals 

Wow...and that's stuff NOT coming together as good as it could be? Sweet mercy

15 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

AI-GFS considerably north of 12Z run. ~0.8 QPF for DC; ~1.1 for SoMD.

Any chance folks can start posting QPF and snowfall amounts for BWI/Baltimore during PBP? 

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Do you take Zelle? Every these days is wireless. 

I take Zelle, Pelle, Dell...

Actually with being a musician I've had to get all the forms of electronic pay, haha

Just now, bncho said:

Baja blast low less closed off hr 51

I have that trademarked--that'll be $5 in lunch money please

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

I just send snow maps and say “it might do this, it might not, I’ll update later” and leave it at that haha but yes I agree completely. I have coworkers bash weather people all the time for being wrong and they don’t know I’m a weather nerd. Have to bite my tongue a lot 

Yeah I try to urge people to give forecasters some grace because trying to get it right is much more difficult than they know, that the atmosphere is complex, and that sometimes weather does whatever the heck it wants, lol Mets are using their expertise to make the best prediction possible!