Maestrobjwa

19 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I can take it he was completely insufferable in February 2016?

Did you mean January 2016?

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

It's never simple. Overrunning also gives you sleet, freezing rain, or rain. And wave interactions can always apply regardless of synoptic setup.

Threats look simpler in the long range because of the ensemble averaging effect. So if you overlay the height field with the precipitation field, it often looks like basic overrunning with flat mid-levels. By the time you get closer to the threat, the ensemble spread significantly narrows, the amplitude of the waves increase, and you see the real synoptic complexity.

At the risk of semantics...SO perhaps not "simple" but rather simplER? That is if you were to compare overruning to a phase event which is easiER? @CAPE or anybody else have thoughts on that?

Is it just or does the stj seem to be waking up next week on the models?

15 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Have we ever had an overruning event? I always hear how that our easy way to snow yet the last i remember was maybe 2003. Before that like 1993 lol. Moral of my usual pointless posts is that there's NO easy way to snow this far south with like 5 feet of elevation lol

Overrunning is the simplest way outside of a classic Miller A. You aren't worrying about any messy wave interactions--just moisture into cold air. And I believe we had that happen a time or two in 2014.

Just now, ravensrule said:

It gives us a 1/2”. 

What was it at 18z?

Just now, Ji said:

I can’t tell you how Much I hate this model

The troll job last February was just another indictment of angst against it. Gonna be the good news model for a change show folks for 2 days and then say oops sowwwy--it invented a new way to troll!!

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks like we get no snow Saturday either

With the other models they all backed off of Saturday and got better for Sunday. If the Euro backed off of Saturday here...it can either stay exactly in this spot or get better from here. We'll see...

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

What the frickle is that??? 

Edit: Nvm I'll save that for banter

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Might as well been.   It's been a long time.  It never does right.  It just doesn't make sudden jumps normally.  Unless it's the wrong way.

Well at least it did tick the right way at 18z...now we'll see if that's all we get for the day or if we can get even a tick or two better. Or maybe I'm just a lunatick

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Pretty sure it’s no dice but better than 12z. Onward 

edit: ya’ll fast 

Pivotal was already out to 87 on your first post 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

UKIE making the right moves through 72

Looks like it's tapping more gulf moisture this run

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Oh crap. After seeing the GFS.. now I gotta wait up for the euro lol..   looks like I'll be  groggy at work tomorrow!!!  Ahh the pains of being a weather nut!!!

Hey at least it runs a half hour earlier now, lol

Just now, TSSN+ said:

When other models agree lol. CMC close that’s a start let’s see ukmet and euro come in as well. 

Yeah it's just plain old looking to see if there's agreement. And this evening that has moved in a positive direction

53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Fwiw 0z Hrr 30hr vs 18z GFS 36hr 

I can just hear the Pokémon evolving music with this...lol (iykyk)

Hey is there any fix to the "yes yes" emoji? The image has been glitched out for awhile 

Just now, anotherman said:

The energy has not been properly sampled because it’s not on sure yet.

So does that actually make a difference in the accuracy of modeling? (I'm assuming it does?)

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

When do we do the weenie "s/w will be better sampled soon"?

Lol But I am curious...is that actually a thing?

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Jeez, y'all. It's a hold. There's very minor differences at h5, it phases a little worse than 12z but four days out it's a hold.

It's a hold. But the bigger thing is it's still on it's own so this analysis may not matter tomorrow, lol

I'm guessing it's too soon to have any clues as to where in the basin the Niño will set up in terms of weather, central, or east? (or Modoki)

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I wouldn't. Precip was just a little drier on the S and E side from DC toward St Mary's

I guess 0z will be telling...if it gets drier then it could be backing off

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

yall are overanalyzing this GFS run lol. it's basically just noise

Given it's performance I'd lean more towards this being a step towards the other models. Low looks further east to me.

24 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS loading...PBP anyone?

More like Poor-by-Poor!

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dislike

Sounds like we offered him an identical deal too, smh Guess he had other reasons for choosing them!

4 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Expect the weenies to keep coming when you say weenie things like this that are just a bit melodramatic imo (lol):

Respectfully, we're all in for disappointment waiting for the lousy GFS to lead and score a coup with one of these. Desperate times. 

Is it though? I mean has the GFS been terrible or no? I'd argue that's a fact--we hoped it was onto something for tomorrow but it was wrong then too, lol

1 hour ago, bncho said:

I'm genuinely surprised that I've been mentioned here. Thought I provided nothing but here we are.  

Today I'll be thanking @SnowenOutThere.  Firstly, thank you for creating this thread. This forum definitely needs something like this, and maybe the other subforums can take a hint from this. Secondly, I would like to applaud you for your amazing posts. You're a top 5 poster IMO. The quality has improved rapidly, and whenever you post I learn a lot from you. And lastly, thank you for being so supportive of me by putting up with my BS. It's really helped me to find a place in this forum.

You contribute more than you know. I've been meaning to ask if you are thinking about studying meteorology--you seem to have a natural understanding of things!