Maestrobjwa

9 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

It is pretty wild how big the city impact is on temps. I live 9 miles south of my parents, but I’m in Baltimore City and they’re just over the County line. It’s 37 degrees here and 31 degrees there. 

What part of Baltimore city? And yep...the Maryland snow elevation cliff if something else, lol

18 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'm not trying to be mean, but this was too good an opportunity to pass up...

 

Fixed 

Even hit 32 here in the city

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

HS

Aha! I was just wondering about your age and my quiet guess was...teenager! (Although here you sometimes it's hard to tell the difference, lolol)

34 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Here's my quick breakdown as a bit of practice for my upcoming atmosphere and weather test. I am going to start with the negatives before ending with the path to victory I can imagine.  I think the more notable issue is that the high appears to go from helping to hurting before the event even starts. By Friday midday the main surface high pressure is off the coast which promotes flow in from the Atlantic (which as a reminder it is still early December).

 

Additionally, we have no real mechanism for keeping any cold air in place for the layers below 700mb as the surface high is unhelpful. The upper level low and surface low are both in a position to eat away at the remaining cold wedge before precipitation even comes close to our area. Just take a look at this 925mb map. The flow is completely out of the south 12 hours before the event even begins. It should be noted our saving grace here is that the storm is weak so the winds are minimal. 

The better news is that the 850+ level is less affected by the surface high and general weak low that is "attacking" from the south. This means that the flow is firstly, not that strong; secondly, out of the southwest/westsouthwest. 

Once you get above 850mb the flow largely veers to be out of the west as there just isn't enough cyclogenesis to really distort the westerly flow. All of this said, I think that ultimately with currently modeling the event this Friday is not in a good spot. I believe this as in order to get a real plowable snowstorm we need two things to go right. 1. A stronger low pressure center in order to actually get lift into the area 2. A correspondingly stronger/more stubborn high. If we get 1. and not 2. all of the thermal issues I highlighted goes from bad to worse as the southern flow just becomes stronger. Meanwhile, if we get 2. but not 1. then we probably end up suppressing this storm. In the end it seems like another thread the needle event that just seems unlikely to get more than 1-3 inches. Disclaimer is that ofc I would be happy with 1-3 inches but this analysis is from a "how could we get a plowable storm" perspective. 

That said, I think there is room for hope as it is not impossible we get 1. and 2. to align. The 5h pattern isn't horrible after all.

There is clearly a path here. Though as it stands everything is slightly off. We have a some semblance of a 50/50, though we need it to be further southwest if we want to trap the surface high pressure in. Additionally, the shortwave out west isn't in a horrible spot. However, as it stands it seemingly gets both weakened and pulled north by the larger low pressure center over central Canada. I think the path to victory here is quite simply that the low out west doesn't get stuck. Currently, the energy enters the southwest around hour 60 then languishes there through 110 before a secondary shot of energy pulls it along. I think if we're able to have the first ball of energy keep its form and progress eastwards and the second shot of energy enters faster its honestly quite possible we manage to get a stronger, more consolidated, and further south system without as much northern stream interference. Additionally, the 50/50 would naturally be in a better spot which would help offset the WAA from a stronger storm. Thank you for listening to my Ted-Talk and if any met read this through let me know if I am gonna fail my test. 

 

TDLR: As it stands I don't think Friday looks good for anything more than 1-3 inches, however, I think the path to victory for a bigger storm is still there if the energy out west is more progressive

Not that this means much coming from this layman, but...you are going to become a main anchor here very soon 

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

This storm will be a hint as to where the new r/s line is setting up. Seems like the dividing line has shifted from immediate burbs west of 95 to further out towards rt15 and 70 the last few years. Also, I have no idea what I’m talking about, but what I do know is not getting any snow from this system with a fresh, albeit transient, cold air mass in place would be pretty lame.

Why? This is Dec 2nd...that's really early in the season where even 20 years ago it took more to snow in this part of the calendar than later--that part isn't new.

19 minutes ago, bncho said:

I wouldn't be too worried about missing this one, fellow comrades in the metros. We're already tracking two more events in the medium-range.

I wouldn't do that if I were you...those two events don't even exist right now. The one we have for Tuesday is the only one we can count as real!

Thought I was hearing things when I heard the sleet this morning, lol Checked the radar and lo and behold 

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO for Tuesday.

Other thread 

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

0z Gfs looks to be cooking up something for next weekend. Looks similar, but cooler, than Tuesday 24 hrs before it gets here.

Feels like in that scenario if it were to come together, even the metros could get a little something to coat things at night since it'll be cold all week...buuuut of course we have an eternity in modeling time before we can even consider that, lol

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Stop whining about the NS lol. In winter a busy NS is the norm more times than not, unless we are torching, then who cares. A quiet NS in a 'good winter pattern' usually only happens when we have a legit persistent NA blocking pattern like 2009-10, in something like the ideal Modoki Nino with a legit southern jet. Doesnt happen that often.

Oh wow I knew it was the norm but I didn't know it was THAT rare. So even in some non-Modoki ninos it's still present, huh?

Oh even the pretty patterns and decent setups...that dang unpredictable northern stream...

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

These seem to be the 2 potential windows to watch via recent guidance- I still like the 10-11th, but the 6th is starting to look intriguing, with some potential for significant southern energy to eject northeastward from the SW, and a nice NA look. A lot of NS energy associated with the TPV lobe though as advertised, and we know how that goes with timing(phasing vs crushing).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The main reason for our nina struggles and why tracking is a pain. Chaos and it rarely goes right

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Surface looks mundane...

In other words surface looks very Dec 6th in the Mid-Atlantic.

30 minutes ago, mappy said:

Believe in the N and W jackpot!

If that starts being a thing again now that @North Balti Zen moved out that's gonna be the funniest thing ever, lolol

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Pretty much.  His map is how I think this one will play out. A classic N and W special. Us city folks gotta wait a little longer. Hopefully the 6th or 10th comes thru. 

Doesn't it feel like we haven't had a classic "N & W Special" in awhile? I mean the last several years have been more S & E specials!

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think euro is the only model showing such a depiction. Either it will cave, or all the other models will cave to the euro. I think we will know with tonight’s 00z runs. 

Given how terribly did with the February threat...I'm not trusting it, lol

9 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

 I'd be flipping estatic if it wasn't 282 hours away lol but at least it's another one to track. And this one seem colder 

Don't stare at it too long, lol

13 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Lol Philly fans are so spoiled 

Yeah I don't understand...y'all just won the SB LAST YEAR and you're still leading your division for crying out loud! I really don't get this level of angst...

9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Crazy snow squall up here in Tyrone, PA. Quick quarter to half inch. 

Well then we'd better call Tyrone and tell him come home with that snow squall!

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

lol he took blame for specifically THAT? Makes zero sense.  How about taking the blame for his team constantly looking unprepared/flat against lesser opponents.

The way I see it not paying enough attention to ball security is all a part of that preparation. Remember last year when he took responsibility for the penalty problems, and then they got better towards the end of the season? This tells it's something he's let slip (like a lot of other things).

See this is why I've been saying that...Harbaugh just doesn't have the energy to stay on top of things anymore--home primetime games under Harbaugh have almost always been MONEY (only two losses heading into this season--and one of those was during COVID!). But now we've lost twice just this year? Nah, man. And you just look at him...he seems warn out, and doesn't have the same fire like he did earlier in his career. It's not like Pete Caroll or Andy Reid at 63...The way HIS aging process is going, it actually seems like he's older. This is why he needs to go ahead and retire, imo

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Excited for another Harbaugh press conference (maybe this even was last night?) where he does word salad about having a good game plan and just needing to execute and that the other team is full of professionals that made plays and they need to make plays too and the offensive line actually looked good when they evaluated it.

Not sure about O-line comments, but Harbaugh didn't sugarcoat a lot last night...actually blamed himself for the fumbling problems.

You know it's a weird season in the AFC when the Chiefs and Ravens could be 6-6, lol

49 minutes ago, CAPE said:

They have fucked up in every way imaginable. Cant wait to see what they do in the second half!

Defense has done pretty well though. Have a feeling they will get torched in the second half because the offense is completely inept.

And look and behold...they are! And Nate Wiggins being out could be the final nail in this one, smh

Mental, mental, mental...that's what these mistakes and shooting themselves in the foot come down to. And that ultimately goes back to the HC. C'mon Biscotti...ya gotta make the change end of this season.