Maestrobjwa

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Not sure if it is far enough away from Parkton, @mappy but I will officially be living in Fallston as of Dec. 1. Bad news for @Interstate as I bring my snow shield to Harford County...

 

Hey bruh you gettin' too close to Baltimore--back it up! Keep that shield within a 20 mile radius please  (or maybe you moving away from the Hertford Zone will reverse the trend )

40 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If Atlanta gets November flurries then there’s no way we’ve reached the point where we’ve permanently lost the 1996, 2003, 2016 tier storms.

It must be an extra good day when your perspective is sunnier than mine, lol I'm just tired of seeing people in the south get snow and remaining in the screw zone in my area. It's gotta break one of these days

Snow flurries in Atlanta today  It's just flurries but given the SOB (south of Baltimore) storm track that has persisted for most of the decade, it's still annoying nonetheless.

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We need to stop the strat talk STAT! If there's any winter weenie index over the last 10+ years that basically ensures a nasty struggle then epic fail... its the Amwx SSW index. The more posts about it the less chance of anything good happening. There's literally 100s if not 1000s worth of post data backing this up. 

I mean sure, scientifically a SSW can be a precursor to blocking and cold/snow in the east but the more it gets hyped here, the less chance of it working out. This is a fact. But weenies gotta ween and my yards gotta fail. Thanks man

This is exactly why my question was covered in skepticism. These days I mostly ignore strat talk because it's failed so often over the last decade...and the one time it really worked the effects of it were too late for us down herea (February 2018 with effects in March 2018). We did get some first day of Spring snow though so that was kinda funny!

6 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

If by we you mean me... lala lockitup

I feel like this "south of Baltimore" storm track of the 8 years favors you more than most of us here, lol I still wanna know why it has been like this but most have said it's kinda random...but how does it repeat that long without a cause?

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

With a SSW/weak PV being forecast this month, I checked when the last time we had a SSW in November. 1968. 

So I looked up the 1968-69 analog, and most of the teleconnections match. -QBO, -PDO, +AMO, etc... except it was a weak nino, not a nina. 

It was a very cold winter, averaging roughly -5 through DJFM, snowfall was backloaded apart from an early November snow. 

With this winter being a weak nina, snow might be more front-loaded and may be colder than what seasonal models are depicting, assuming the SSW verifies. 

Now with these SSWs...like, how difficult are they to forecast even a week out? And if they do happen are we able to see it in real time? I ask because it feels like there have been a lot of wild goose chases over the last decade or so!

3 hours ago, bncho said:

The conversational flurries seem to want to go south to Richmond. When have we heard that story before... 

I'd love to have a new storm track one of the years. The one of the last decade sucks...not even "higher amounts north and west of the city" exists anymore! I find the fact that there is no clear cause rather annoying, lol

8 hours ago, CAPE said:

The Ravens weren't very good that season and missed the playoffs, but that game was wild in the snow.

Yes it was (and to have that on a snow fat was even better!) That was absolutely insane--remember when we all thought Marlon Brown was gonna be a breakout after that? Lol But that was the craziest 2 mins of all time! And the memory is even sweeter knowing that snow kicked off an epic wall-to-wall winter 

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would expect a very cold Decemer, - NAO just delivers consistently pedestrian departures. You need the +TNH get really cold values...and this is assuming tha the -NAO isn't overdone, which it probably is.

Did you mean you would not expect a very cold December, then?

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

Really?

It really says a lot, smh

52 minutes ago, mappy said:

I agree. A shame really. 

It really is. Is he out for good now?

I got a real easy approach to tracking this year: If a model shows something that hasn't happened in 10 years...assume it's wrong and toss it 

1 hour ago, frd said:

We have had that multiple times and still failed. We had  them in a Nina and a Nino. The Pac is really King. Many great mets were humbled when the pattern screamed HECS and nothing happened, not even a SECS. However, lets get the cold first and see what happens.   

Nah we haven't had the pattern with a less hostile PDO though. The -PDO regime has been a constant the last 10 years. It finally eased up close to positive for a moment last season and lo and behold...we squeezed out more flakes. Not blockbuster by any stretch, but slightly better.

13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's not impossible to snow in a nina and a -pdo.

I don't understand your thinking of "close the blinds" till we get a Nino.

Is it harder? Sure but definitely not impossible and all weak ninas arent complete duds.

I wouldn't expect a big storm this year but it doesn't have to be a complete dumpster fire also.

 

No I'm not close the blinds like in a "dumpster fire" kind of way. Just more in a not expecting something different from what we've seen in a decade kind of way. Like basically the max for this setup (and winter) is advisory-level scenery snow--which is still nice to look at, mind you. I would just love to see a -AO/-NAO pattern in a more favorable regime to finally break the snow drought.

46 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Oh if only it weren't a nina and a -PDO! These looks are useless...er, right?

Just now, CAPE said:

Speaking of dying on a hill, the Ravens failed(not sure they event attempted it) to improve their pathetic OG play via trade. The delusional belief that Faalele is any good(Vorhees isnt much better) may very well be the difference between making and missing the playoffs- not to mention compromising the health of Lamar while in the pocket trying to make plays downfield.

It seems to me they're relying on Emory Jones to at least replace one of the two. Not sure how strong of a prospect that is.

11 hours ago, Stradivarious said:

And top it off he is fellow string player (viola)

Ah violists...always the third fiddle 

15 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

23 minutes ago, Normandy Ho said:

For sure the Montego Bay damage consistent with cat3 winds

Yeah, unfortunately, it seems everything operationally is verifying on the ground. I am hopeful many lives were saved by residents heeding the advanced warnings. They had several days to plan. It will still be a miracle if the death count doesn't rise, however, despite the more densely populated areas in eastern Jamaica avoiding the eyewall. As you can see in the imagery, there are an overwhelming number of structures deroofed, walls down, or completely destroyed.

Any major flooding reports from this?

10 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Well, it has now been 10 winters since our last KU-HECS type storm, so there ya go!  I don't know what the "average" time is between such events, but I think historically it's been less than that(?).

From 1990-2016 the trend of every 6-7 years was remarkably consistent. As was the trend of getting a footer every 3-4 years. But since then that hasn't meant jack diddly, smh. No reason to bank on it happening until, well...it happens, lol Tbh I wouldn't even want to entertain the idea of the WDI finally winning until we roll the dice with a niño again!

35 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Im moving out your way mid December 

Yeah go west not north--that ain't worked out to well lately, lol

6 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

The system clearing as quick as it did is really good news for Halloween festivities - kid and adult. And extra good news for those us who will be lining up for the Billy Strings concert. Super happy we won't be getting poured on.

Looks like it spared some foliage as well!

3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

2016 sequel

Not quite...if this were winter this would've been a cutter with that track, I believe...

59 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Come on man...You can't make it that easy for him....

That was a dang 80 mph fast ball right down the middle, lol

28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Eye is clearing out again and -80c tops wrapping around the Southern half of the CDO. Guess my hallowed out core post was off base lol.

"I'll show you hollowed out, jerk!!!* -Melissa, probably.

Something told me this storm wasn't gonna just lay down. There's just something about epic storms like this--they just break the rules, lol