Maestrobjwa

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

@Maestrobjwa@bncho Anything that you all want to know in particular? 

Hey thanks for doing this! Well, the biggest thing is those H5 vorticity maps you guys always share when there's a storm, and what a phase looks like. I never quite know what I'm looking at as it looks like spaghetti sauce to me, lol

3 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

indeed I could be. but I am simply being direct because you are an adult and not a child. and I also literally provided you with a list of videos.

Well that's funny...3 other people in here responded graciously and it's not started a convo and sharing of information. And all you had to do is share the links, not with the passive-aggressive "Was that so hard??" thing. Totally unecessary. Nah--you just naturally go at people like that. Adults ask other adults about crap they don't know.

And lo and behold...and H5 video that demonstrated what I was talking about I did not find.

4 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Green line is dews. Red line is temps. Blue line is hieroglyphics if it's there. Maybe it's just for RGB funsies? Y axis is altitude. X axis is temp at ground level. Isotherms (lines of equal temp) go up and to the right and form the "skewed" x axis. We only really care about the freezing one because we're weenies.

 

Dew and temps close together is moister. Lines deflecting more to the right indicates lift I think? Everything keeping behind the 0 deg isotherm means you get snow. The surface being freezing but too much above (or too close to the surface) being across the 0 deg line means you get freezing rain. The surface being freezing but a little bit (or far from the surface) being across the freezing line means you get sleet. Or maybe rimed snow. Graupel goes in there somewhere, idk. I hate graupel. Just don't cross the damn freezing line please. Surface not being freezing but dewpoints being dry and the rest of the column looking like that snow description and you might get non accumulating snow, or only on friendly surfaces for a short while. Surface not being freezing and the column being shit, yup, you guessed it, rain.

This is probably a gross oversimplification and you shouldn't trust me. My profile picture is a dog. Not some cool weather thing. My name is not red. Here's some more info...

https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/convective_parameters/skewt/skewtinfo.html

Thanks for sharing!

6 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

 

you just asked people here to stop what they are doing and and create a video that already exists just to cater to you. 

and I literally gave you a link to a list of videos to learn about soundings.

I didn't say stop what you're doing...I was speaking in general some time in the future not right now...goodness gracious. And not JUST for me but for others like me who don't always understand what they're looking at! Could ya be anymore unkind?

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This is a pretty good video tutorial. 

 

 

Since we focus mainly on winter wx, you dont have to master everything. At the very least, memorize levels, temps, and wind direction. All a sounding is is a vertical visualization of the atmosphere from the surface to the jet stream. Winter wx focuses mainly on 500mb or below or roughly 18k' down to the surface. 

Learn to locate the 0C (freezing line). It runs diagonal and memorize altitude of key levels like 500mb (approx 18k'), 700mb (approx 10k'), and 850mb (approx 5k'). Levels are related to pressure are not static and altitude varies but the approx levels are the most common. 

Once you get that and the 0C line yaou can track temperature above your head and easily spot the trouble areas and also predict ptype. 

 

Thank you Bob for not being a jerk. I'm just trying to learn and speak for others like me that are just laymen and don't know whst we're looking at half the time--I will definitely look at the vid and I appreciate the explanation.

4 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=how+to+read+a+sounding+video

https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=how+to+read+"500+hPa"+weather+map

Now why'd ya have to be snippy like that? That's how arguments start, smh

Now I haven't searched for a long time...but the last time I did I don't recall finding a tutorial. Will look again...found soundings but not H5.

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Yep, the Euro is now by far the high end event for me. It even beats out the GFS. Mainly it just has an insanely favorable front end thump and QDF before switching over. Also to the point about some people have been pointing out about ptype maps; I've dug into the Euro a bit and it would have a longer period of snow and then sleet before icing. Though, it still manages to give me some legit freezing rain soundings by the end. Would probably be near the absolute worst case impacts wise. Oh and one last thing, my friend in HS wants our input (he follows the board because of me) as to IAD's total snowfall to win a free lunch. I'm thinking maybe 9.8? 

Did you mean QPF?

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Increment me 6 more times daddy!

Cool it Ravensrule

So...I anybody here willing to make a tutorial video about just the basics of reading soundings and H5? I mean there's plenty to read about it I'm sure, but...like if it was just a "H5 for dummies" kinda video for laymen that would be awesome!

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's obviously long range but analogs and teles are screaming big storm potential. AO on the relax after a big dive and a solid analog list. Weenie rule that the big ones are sniffed out early and a big +WDI

 

Even from my layman perspective...initially I liked this window better than our current storm for that very reason--the relax! But the current storms is good too 

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

GGEM is a beatdown for a lot of folks here. 8+ for metro areas thanks to a big thump. Bit colder as well.

First time all week it's had a friendlier run, lol

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS is flipping back to snow to the west as well. Interesting change. 

Okay so here we are at what...48 hrs? Are there any signs of a cave so far?

Just now, LP08 said:

Baja low a little quicker to eject

I would ask if that's what we want...but what we want/don't want has changed so many times or had so many caveats I lost count, lol

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

It’s loud, I can tell you that much. Have been through a couple. Friends at college went through VDay 2007 up in PA with 5+” of sleet. They said it sounded like a barrage of BB’s for hours on end hitting the house. Crazy 

How well was that one modeled a day or two before? Was the amount of sleet a surprise?

Just now, stormtracker said:

We've all had them. It's a rite of passage here.

And to tell ya the truth, even as we learn to control them on here, it would not surprise me if even the most measured posters on here still have them silently from time to time--it's a part of our syndrome, lol

7 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Their meteorologists are probably exhausted, too.

Or, someone may have hacked into the computers there and are about to change the forecast to five feet of snow for the entire sub.......

Jeb....what did you do????

50 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Does anyone know what's causing these very odd mesoscale banding features on the 24h snowfall at h252? Is it just long range chaos?

Everything's odd 252 hrs out 

Just now, anotherman said:

Next weekend?

Yep

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

I guess I'm a big dummy because I'm just not seeing any noteworthy evidence of a cave here. 

And let me be clear: I FULLY expect the GFS to cave some or all of the way to a Euro-like solution at some point. I'm just saying that, to my eye anyway, the differences folks are pointing to are so small and synoptically inconsequential as to be well within the normal run-to-run variability. It's actually remarkably consistent with the 18Z run. Again, to my eye. I fully acknowledge I could be missing something big. 

From what a couple others have said it makes sense...very subtle changes but they're there. 6z and 12z will certainly be telling!

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Based on the last euro run and some forecasts here made in response to it I think it’ll be near the ceiling of your range.

That would be awesome!

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

It's subtle, the GFS did cave a bit back to the west at 850mb looking at the isohypses. Not as far as other global guidance (Euro, UKMET, CMC, etc.) It's still very aggressive on it's coastal development along the warm front. More so than other models, which in turn slows down the WF advance northward.

So safe to say if we a similar cave at 6z then it's on it's way, lol Goodness gracious this model

Just now, TowsonWeather said:

I mean, I'm as skeptical as everyone else that this will verify, but you're reaching some here, I think. These are mostly noise level differences.

Yeah I mean I guess if we see those features strengthen/weaken again at 6z then perhaps it is a trend. But hard to tell that right now

Just now, stormtracker said:

Wow...if it caves it will be the most wrong the GFS has ever been on a storm we're tracking, lol I mean we're at 72 hrs and no change! I mean it HAS to happen at 12z tomorrow if it's gonna happen, right?

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

But the thing is, it isn't. Any storm like this has the same odds to uptrend or downtrend regardless of ENSO state. It just doesn't matter in this small of a timeframe.

How so? NS is busier in ninas, right? So that means disruptions are more likely...right?

6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Exactly.  Yeah, when looking at a monthly or seasonal forecast or trends, the ENSO state of course has an impact on what to expect or what may happen.  But a specific storm such as this doesn't suddenly say to itself, "Oh, shoot!  It's a Nina!  I better start backing off on snow amounts!"

Lol Not quite what I mean. If you track a storm in a nina, ya gotta lower your expectations even more because nina crap is more likely to get in the way and mess it up. I mean look where we are right now...

4 minutes ago, Nomz said:

I don't understand the comments about the ENSO state for a system within 72 hours. The ENSO is helpful for long-range guesstimating, not short-term anything. Is it less likely to have a MECS in a Niña? Yes. If the correct ingredients are there for a MECS, and it happens to be in a Niña, will it still happen? Yes. ENSO only affects the odds of the players coming to the table. Once the players are on the table, the atmosphere cares not if it's Niña or Niño; a storm won't downtrend or uptrend solely because of the ENSO state.

What I'm saying is when trying to track a storm in a nina and you're 72 hours out...the complications that are most likely getting in the way are always the same: NS disruptions because it's simply too busy in ninas. What we're seeing now is no different: Too much phasing, too little...this GL low got in the way, this ns feature interfered at the wrong time, and on and on. I'd bet if we had this same slug of stj moisture coming right at us in a Niño with cold in place, it would be nice and simple. That's why I feel like enso state does play a role in what we see when we track a storm like this.