Maestrobjwa

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Never heard of the guy. Sounds like a real clown.

On a wx note, the rgem at 84 is really trying to bury our s/w in the Baja. 

Is that the earliest piece of this we gotta watch to make sure it goes right? Lol

Just now, bncho said:

Webb IMO is full of it. That HP is NOT going to be 1050.

Wasn't even depicted that high on today's guidance, lol

Just now, Terpeast said:

Can’t say I hate being on the north side of the heaviest snows as depicted by the nbm. Still a little worried about suppression, but 12z assuaged that concern just a little bit. 

@Ralph Wiggum mentioned in the other sub that across all guidance the high weakened slightly from thr 1050s to 1044 at the most

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

One trend past 24 hrs i do like, the strong 1052 arctic hp isnt showing nearly that strength and is ~1044mb highest i could find across guidance at 12z. Not surprising that it probably won't be as strong as depicted 6 days out.

I think that'll be good for both our subs...because a weakee high would lessen suppression risk, right?

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Planning to start my deep dive H5 post shortly. So far all I will say is that I think with the recent set of guidance have have since passed even Feb 20 at its peak in consistency and likelihood. 

Feb 20th?

Just now, stormtracker said:

I don't care

 

 

Yeah ya don't have much choice especially if there are other things to track too, lol

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I think suppression is least likely.  CMC showed how just a little more amped storm will slam those mids over top and there is more mix.  It's like roles reversed when back in the day the euro would hold things back and GFS went ham.  Now the gfs is laggy with pieces.  Topsy turvy world.  

But there is a storm.  Next 5 days will be hell as everyone loses their shit run to run when jack zones shift.  I'll just aim for 4" and be happy with whatever.  

Hey, as long as I don't see suppression I'm good. Because if it's amped like whst is being modeled now...it's possible that everybody will have a chance to have their biggest snowfall in a decade. Let the jack zones roll 

Just now, bncho said:

VA/NC border probably 15-20"

DC probably around 10-14"

Baltimore probably around 8-10"

So what sounds like a pretty decent bump north, no? And hey...if 8-10" is the fringe job? I'll take it (while still being only slightly jealous )

Just now, mitchnick said:

I hope it's a girl.

Her name is...Folksia

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Debbie Downer wants to remind everyone that there are reasons we have had like 1 KU in a La Nina in the history of the Mid-Atlantic region since the last glacial maximum

Always something to keep in mind...(What was Feb 2006? An overruning event, or?)

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

We would all take 8 in a heartbeat.

That would still be my biggest snowfall in 10 years! If that would be a "fail" scenario, then that would be a heck if a consolation prize.

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

12z gefs was better than the op and an improvement from 6z.

Oh okay. PBP fail @bncho -- you said it was technically a shift south but it actually ticked north! Dropping your grade to a C+ 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Holy smokes. UKIE just went ballistic. Everything seems to be coming around to the AI solutions from yesterday. Just wow. 

Except for the GEFS and EPS...would really like to see those on board too

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Zoomed version

Sweet mercy that's a lot of orange sherbet! (TM)

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Canadian is about as amped as I want at this range. Inside of 48 hrs? Sure.

Listen I will happily risk amped over suppression any day...keep that ampin' and rampin'!

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Wasn’t a clean phase. AIGFS could’ve smoked us even more. Love where we stand right now. Could always change my mind in an hour 

What got in the way of a clean phase?

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Phase 8

Neg AO

Neg NAO

Positive PNA

You'd think! A fail would just be bad luck i.e. a random anomalous high at the wrong time. But hopefully not!

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I don't think i invented the phrase but i've said it alot over the past few years.....Nina's love the beaches and North Carolina

Always, smh Although it has been awhile since we've had this kind of moisture from the stj during a nina...so you'd hope that would help. But then ya got that dang high pressing (not sure if that's a random NS thing or not).

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What makes you think tomorrow would be definitive? Trust me, we won't know yet.

Well I was thinking that if the anomalous strong high was gonna verify and keep pressing we'd start seeing more and more suppressed solutions by then.

20 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I'm telling you especially if you live north

If it fails I'm not sure how much of a "rug pull" it'll be seeing as we could very well know by 0z tomorrow whether suppression (the biggest fail risk) is gonna be an issue or not.

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Hey at least we have AL's models on our side

Yeah I'm having a hard time believing those, tbh. Until we see less suppression from the regulars it'll be hard to buy it

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I know, that's why I posted. It shifted south.

Oh my bad I was looking at the gifs in the wrong order, lol Darn it

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'd like to see the Eps shift north.

Stolen from the southern forum. Just out to 144, of course

6z Euro looking pretty nice at the end. Starting to feel like...as long as we don't have any guidance go the opposite way (more squashed) and have everything at least hold steady today that would be encouraging

Just now, stormtracker said:

We'd all take the Euro at this point.  Good to have the AIs still doing their thing.  Good place to be so far

And besides this was still better than 12z, no?