Maestrobjwa

6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Oh no! 12-18 inches of snow before we worry about sleet on top? awful! We need to go back to the happier runs where we smoked cirrus- that was totally better…

FORFUCKSAKE PEOPLE 

I would take tonight's runs in a heartbeat. The problem is...worry about the future ones. Blip or trend? There's fear of the future ones continuing further and further north.

Is 6-10" of snow too much to ask? Lol I think I will take even that even if sounded by sleet afterward.

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

One thing that seems to be coming into hyper focus is that this is going to be a winter storm of proportions that our region as a whole hasn’t experienced in 10 years. I just hope it doesn’t end up being mostly sleet. I’d be perfectly fine with a huge thump of snow followed by sleet. I prefer all snow but it is what it is, and hopefully the trend doesn’t keep pushing. 

This is what I'm afraid of. I'd be perfectly fine with the thump depicted on the EURO/CMC. But all sleet would be a real punch in the stones because that STILL wouldn't end the snow drought. Hoping things level off today.

Synopticqlly, is there room for this to amplify even more?

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

All season thus far we couldnt buy a can phase. Now we get a record arctic hp and antecedent airmass and the ns decides to do a perfect clean phase and overamp. So hard to get a clean MECS. It really is. But we have time. Hang in gang.

Yeah and again...as long as it doesn't go any MORE amped than this, we can still get something really good despite the sleet. And I think we'll know by this time tomorrow. If we can't get at least 8" out of this that's just plain ol' bad luck and just wasn't meant to be.

Just now, nj2va said:

Looks like DC flips to sleet Sunday late morning/early afternoon with a warm nose at 700. But my goodness, what a thump before that. 1.2” or so of QPF in DC before that.

Earlier start time?

Just now, Another Field said:

Dude, you are super annoying

He's a kid.

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's GGEM like.  We got sleet problems.  It;'s a ton of QPF tho

So all the models went north and amped...I don't even wanna know what they're gonna look like by 12z tomorrow.

I don't mind sleet mixed in at the end. But what I am afraid of seeing is this becoming mostly sleet or worse.

Just now, bncho said:

Stop reacting with sad. It's not necessarily a bad thing for the Euro to do this. It had leeway.

It's the trend that could be the issue.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

For those of us who aren't good at reading these maps...a few words of explanation would be appreciated 

From the NYC thread but relevant for us as well in regards to the Ukie solution:

19 minutes ago, TriPol said:

A primary that survives all the way to Erie in this pattern is structurally suspect. It requires the cold dome to retreat faster than the synoptic setup allows. The 1032 mb high to the west is not a paper tiger. It is feeding low-level cold and keeping the boundary pinned south and east. Primaries do not just waltz through that without consequences.

Ukie keeping it mostly snow in NYC while dragging the primary to Erie is internally inconsistent. If the primary truly gets that far north and west, the low-level flow into NYC backs too much from the south. You do not get to keep a clean snow profile and a strong inland primary at the same time. One of those has to give.

What usually gives is the primary.

In reality, with this kind of trough geometry and thickness field, the inland low weakens earlier. Energy transfers near the coast. The inland center becomes a bag of isobars and stops mattering. That is exactly the evolution the GFS, Euro, and most ensembles favor in similar regimes.

Ukie has a known bias here. It over-amplifies inland primaries in cold-dominant patterns, especially at this lead time. It often delays or underplays the transfer, then corrects late when the coastal baroclinic zone asserts itself. La la land is not an unfair description.

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wednesday morning if we're being real 

I knew somebody was gonna do that, lol

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I definitely agree with you, but I don’t understand why you assume it’s going to keep happening. It is slightly concerning because it’s the Ukie which i believe has the second best verification numbers, let’s see what the Euro says in 45 minutes. 

It was a really big jump. I mean...we legit don't know if that's the northern extent or not--it's just Tuesday night.

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

I'm fearful of losing that, but it's just weenie jitters. Usually don't get this emotionally invested anymore lol

I am too. I mean this is Tuesday...this thing has enough time to trend all the way to mostly sleet at this rate!

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I don’t care too much what it showed verbatim. Trend tonight is dangerous and needs to stop. Like ASAP.

Bruh I swear if this thing trends all rhe way to being pure sleet and ice...

You gotta wonder if the models got new data this evening because these aren't just ticks north but a big jump.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Being totally skunked isn’t possible - we’d at least get like 4” of sleet if this really got screwed up somehow. Which isn’t as cool but it’s interesting

4" of sleet on top of like 6-10" I guess?

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Oh get ready for the freak outs about amped / sleet in the storm thread.  

Guilty, lol But we still have a long ways to go...we legit don't know if this is gonna be a trend or not--or how far north it could go

Just now, Ji said:

I am not going to get mad at 15 inch storm with 2 inches of liquid after seeing dustings and trace storms all winter. At least we get the snow first

Yeah ain't mad, just worried about it getting worse by being too far north. At this juncture I'd hope the models haven't been so wrong that we get skunked completely by that. But it is 4 days away...

8 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

ugh, here comes the CMC to bring the mood down with a sleet bomb..

Always one model that has to crap on things...as long as the EURO doesn't do that it's OKAY...

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Its the CMC and it's on it's own.  Viable solution, but I'll wait for confirmation....up next Euro

Yeah it makes you wonder...hadn't conceived of too far north possibly being an issue but here we are with that as a possibility, smh I mean if this run were THE goalpost I could live with it (still close to a foot + sleet) But I worry about an even further north trend now (more mix or even rain scenarios?)

1 minute ago, bncho said:

CMC might be too amped LOL

If these are the new goalposts I think we can throw suppression worries out the window, lol

Just now, Nomz said:

Man what I say wrong lol. If Boston ends up with sig snow from this system we almost certainly got hammered. If we get hammered its more likely Boston does as well. Just the way this system is oriented.

I know what you meant--but your wording coulda been better. You said "or vice-versa" which isn't always true (i.e. the storms they get that we miss)

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

ICON = 20"

What a run.

Oh my goodness 

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

00z icon at very end of its run... And  it's still snowing at hour 120 for all of us. And more snow to come!

That's 18z

Edit: Ninja'd twice over, lol

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bruh that thing can't even get 48 seconds right!

We don't talk bad about the NAM when it shows something we want