Maestrobjwa

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're in a tenuous spot. You wait all year for winter and then we torch like it's nothing. Meanwhile the atmosphere has concepts of a pattern for snow that's perpetually two weeks away.

Heh...see what ya did there 

5 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Because that's too far out. Underestimate the SE ridge at your own peril.

Not that it would have to be correlation, but...last year was one year where if ya underestimated it you were right, lol

I'm kinda at peace with whatever happens this season...my lowest bar is to just make the playoffs. After that I expect us to get the boot right away, and hopefully that'll force a change. We can't go for the SB this year in our current condition.

Side note: I learned this week that our O-line coach has been fired 9 times, and all his O-lines got worse, smh Had no idea he had that bad of a track record! Needless to say he won't be back next year, lol

2 hours ago, Herb@MAWS said:

Another sucky Ravens team performance. But a win is still a win. 

Sucky offense...defense is what kept us in it.

10 hours ago, mappy said:

This why I don’t look at that thread. Can’t cancel it if there was a chance for big snow that disappeared if I never knew it existed to begin with. 

People should just keep expectations neutral and view everything within the broader context of where we've been the last 8 years and what enso state we're in and go from there--instead of going up and down with the LR modeling and the inevitable chaos of tracking an actual threat.

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

If pattern changes are almost built in rushed in guidance then why not develop a system that does not do that?

Over last couple winters we’ve seen gigantic failure anywhere from 36 hours to 15 days out.   Very few if any positive such surprises .  

 

I think you're expecting things that the computers are simply not advanced enough for those things not to happen sometimes. Why not just...accept the current limitations/biases and set forecasts/expectations from there instead of railing against the failures as if it's something easy to fix or some conspiracy? Technology simply isn't there yet. NWP (if I'm using that term correctly) is leaps and bounds better than it was 25-30 years ago but it still isn't a crystal ball! (and someone can correct me if I'm off base on any of that).

On 11/17/2025 at 12:18 PM, WxUSAF said:

Can not deny this pattern’s been going on for a few months now where guidance keeps wanting to push a ridge into the northeast and it keeps not happening. With our luck this will flip just when we need it to happen for snow chances. But look at our area and the northeast for Friday evening vs a few days ago. 

Not sure of the similarities to now, but...I remember a lot of SE ridge can kicks last year!

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

meh. I find that hard to believe given the coupled SSW and MJO progression. should get quite favorable after the 10th, not the other way around

Did the SSW actually happen/still on track to happen?

57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You think that’s low?

I think he's making a joke about it looking like it says negative 16 inches, lol

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The root of the problem is the interior OL, and EDC and Harbaugh should be made to pay for sticking with 2 subpar guards. Calling Ben Cleveland????

I'm not sure EDC deserves to be fired over this. He just needs to fix the dang thing this off-season. Now Harbaugh is another matter

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will be better than January.

But that would be kinda atypical for a nina, no?

2 hours ago, adelphi_sky said:

Should I get excited about this winter? A lot of talk about below avg temps and above avg precipitation. Can't wait to start tracking again and eating popcorn watching people argue snowfall maps.   This has been one boring summer/fall. Needs some weather excitement!

In my amateur opinion...I wouldn't get excited about any winter before it happens--especially in this current cycle of underperformance we've been in with this -PDO. Just keep expectations neutral...it is a nina so you know the potential of those is limited even in better conditions anyway.

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am starting to lean towards something like this as the mean winter pattern.  December-January coldest, February warmest, March is a wildcard.  

Sounds like a very easy, canonical call!

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not sold on El Niño either. Historically year 2 after a strong/super mini goes cold ENSO, year 3 is roughly 50/50 and its year 4 that tilts warm ENSO. 

Wut. Man it's too hard to get a Nino it takes forever! Or does a -PDO regime naturally produce more ninas?

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Do all of that and that’s how to get a shot like these! (From WV/VA border and 4000+ ft at 12:30am)

That is a beautiful shot--especially the bottom image with the stars. Wow Very inspiring!

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
 He’s just trying to be funny. It’s good to laugh at yourself. I do that all of the time! I’m my own best comedian when I laugh at myself as I have so much material! Come on, man, we all know that you enjoy pushing mildness in winter when you can back it up well (which to your credit you do), and that there are more that do the same on the opposite end sometimes without good evidence.

Yeah I mean I'm a snow miser like a lot of folks here. I want snow and plenty of it! Why he won't simply admit to being a heat miser when it's so blatantly obvious is beyond me--all our biases are loud and clear 

41 minutes ago, IronTy said:

When I look at last year's snowfall it seems pretty normal outside of the anomalous Gulf Coast snow.  Sure we got more snow in Calvert county than Baltimore but that was really just luck from one storm and it due to climate shift.  At least that's my take.  

How do I get that map from 2018 through now? That's the time period I really wanna see.

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One specific location getting more snow in one specific season is a fluke.  If you pull back and look over a 10/20/30 year period it is not snowing more to the south. One storm and one year is a fluke. An anomaly of short term randomness within the longer scale actual patterns. Same way 2010 was an anomaly for us, not some indication we get more snow than places in upstate NY that got less snow than Baltimore that one season.

I must be misrembering then. I just know southern half has done better than the northern half of our sub since Dec 2018.. It's not one season but multiple ones since then. Precip boundary has been consistently south of here, hasn't it? NoVa has done better as well...but I could be wrong.

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The only "sustained" blocking over the last 10 years (sustained being more than a one week transient episode) were January into early Feb 2016, March 2018 and mid Dec to mid Feb 2021.  

ETA: During the Dec-Mar period 

South definitely got more that year. Remember the TX freeze and the snow that came with it?

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Are places south of us getting more snow, or did some location south of us simply get one snowstorm at some point that we missed and you got frustrated?  Because I am not finding these places south of us getting more snow.  

Average snowfall the last 10 years

BWI: 12.31"

DCA: 9.28"

Salisbury MD: 9.49"

Richmond VA: 6.66"

Raleigh NC: 3.16"

Charlotte NC: 1.88" 

Oh no it wasn't just one. I'd love to look at the year by year for that. Wouldn't those averages be skewed by the mediocre years? And It's been several times in different areas. I can think of at least 6 years of the last 10 where places south got more. NC in Dec 2018, TX in February 2021, Snow in NO last year. 2019 southern MD getting more from that storm, and again last year--snow events in Alabama! Beach blizzard in...2018 I THINK.

What I'm saying is the years that haven't been complete ratters, the south seems to be getting more. And you'd think it would happen less but the amounts have been consistently higher south of Baltimore since 2018 aside from years everybody failed.

43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z mesos look dicey on central Md cloud cover. Better for NoVA and southern MD.

Always. I would like the coulds around here to cooperate just one dang time.

58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Higher anomalies to the north, lower along the south...what you would expect if climate zones were shifting north (which they are) in the

And here's the part that defies common sense. So if this is the climate, you would think you WOULDN'T see snow and cold south of here as much...and yet over the last 7-8 years places south of Baltimore, and then places WAY south...have seen more snow. Like you would think that boundary shifting north=warmer and less snow south. You'd think you wouldn't see Texas freezing in 2021, onorthern. AL snowing last year, or again, Southern part of the forum having more snow than the northern. The whole thing is counterintuitive.

10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Sigh. Another winter of seeing places well to the south cash in while we are missed? 

If that streak is gonna break I guess we can't count on it breaking in a la nina. Even dang Atlanta got flurries before we did. It baffles me to no end how the supposed boundary is inching "north" yet places just south--or WAY south--of here have seen more snow than we have over the last 8 years. Just on a commonsense level that makes zero sense. You'd think warmer would mean that wouldn't happen as much and yet here we are!

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Not sure if it is far enough away from Parkton, @mappy but I will officially be living in Fallston as of Dec. 1. Bad news for @Interstate as I bring my snow shield to Harford County...

 

Hey bruh you gettin' too close to Baltimore--back it up! Keep that shield within a 20 mile radius please  (or maybe you moving away from the Hertford Zone will reverse the trend )

40 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If Atlanta gets November flurries then there’s no way we’ve reached the point where we’ve permanently lost the 1996, 2003, 2016 tier storms.

It must be an extra good day when your perspective is sunnier than mine, lol I'm just tired of seeing people in the south get snow and remaining in the screw zone in my area. It's gotta break one of these days