Maestrobjwa

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Also yes, that map likely includes sleet as well since that’s how it goes in the record for the daily measurements. 

Why does sleet make into daily snowfall measurements, anyway? I mean it's literally not snow, lol

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

4 day week for BCPS?

Yeah probably. Can't imagine anybody is gonna be able to do much of anything Monday morning, lol

Just now, EHoffman said:

If we get 8" plus tons of sleet and temps not hitting freezing all week...wouldn't shock me if most systems are closed most of the week.

Good point...yeah the arctic plunge part of this does add more to the equation

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You think schools will have a 4 day week next week or 3 day?

Depends on where you are. I'd imagine it'll be at most a 4 day week...and decreasing the further n & w you get, lol

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

In any event, this time Saturday we will be watching a huge swath of snow creeping towards the region with no worries of a miss.  Been a while since we have been able to watch a big frozen qpf bomb encroach on our areas.

And it should've been simple...Finally having unmissable precip just to have other random ns nina crap potentially mess it up to the point where we see snow totals getting cut back and back and who knows how much more over the next 48 hours. I haven't had a warning level snow in 10 years nor have I hit double digits since that time. I would like crap to go right just ONCE.

If I can get 6-10" I'm good. But it just feels like that's in jeopardy. 2007 (an analog for this storm) was supposed to be a snowstorm but ended up all sleet unexpectedly. If that happens and I get stuck with 4-5" snow with hard-to-shovel sleetn I'll still not have had one in 10 years.

(And yes I can dream up worse case scenarios with the best of them, lol)

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

6-12 is still the best range at the juncture. Do agree it sucks to have a one in ten year storm turn into a snow and sleet bomb instead of two feet. 

Listen I wasn't even looking for two feet. But I sure as heck wanted to least try to make a run at double digits for the first time--it sucks because you'd think a simple SS wave coming right at us would deliver...but then we get unlucky with a NS complication, and you wonder if it continues to get trimmed back over the next 48 hours.

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story:

5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way.

Yeah because just 36 hours ago it was looking more like 8-12" for the metros and now we're down to 5-8"...and seeing unfavorable trends with the low position and such. So many times we get closer and stuff gets lower and lower. Been burned many times the last 10 years

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

AIFS trend 

Yeah that's not good...man I just don't wanna lose a warning level snowfall with this at the last minute. 6-10" bare minimum

15 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

NAM is always amped, that's what the A stands for. 

NAMped? 

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO

Definite improvement over 18z!!! Ha...funny how we're calling a foot of snow a "thump", lol

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Genuinely do not know your issue with me man. You’ve been on my ass when you yourself offer no commentary on our setups and haven’t been on the forum in years. It’s bullshit. As for the CMC point go back to model runs Monday and tell me which one is the closest to our current runs. It is the CMC as by and far it involved the cleanest phase out west and includes the NS lobe which the others didn’t even have at that point. Either way, you gotta chill out man; as it turns out I’ve changed since you last checked the forum and actually know what I’m talking about now. If you’d like to contest that please refer to the top 2 most popular posts in the old thread and tell me the synoptic faults I made as I am more than willing to concede I’m not perfect. 

It's not you, man. That's how he is--like @nw baltimore wxsaid just put him on ignore. Not worth the brain space--you are doing a fantastic job!

24 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

CMC gets sleet all the way up to Boston this run... sheesh

Yeah even to my layman ears that doesn't sound right...lends credence to the possibility that it's overamped

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Oh my goodness. Hmm!

Absolutely weenie run there

Don't care--SOLD!

1 minute ago, Army Mike said:

If Cranky puts that out i would assume so

He's Content now 

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

the Icon is typically very stingy with snow. this alot for the ICon

Hey gets Baltimore back to a foot? We take 

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@Maestrobjwa is going to be having a word with you 

Well if this storm keeps trying to invent ways to fail I will relinquish my trademark...but for now BAJA BLAST

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Most always is the northern stream. 

The northern stream has to be THE most complicated one...my goodness.

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

Ironically, the cut-off low that is being sampled is likely not the most uncertain piece of the puzzle.

*Yells up to airplanes* YOU'VE GOT THE WRONG GUY!!!

Did they key in that wave because it’s what gets everything started, I guess?

11 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Just want to point out / take a step back that regarding the potential evolution, even though the precipitation and outcomes look similar, we still have a long way to go in order to understand how this is going to unfold dynamically.

Well I hope it unfolds favorably...or else Mr. Ucinelli may have a storm bearing his name in a realm of weenie infamy...

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

This is what I'm confused about. The 18z Euro from my view of its H5 vort and height should've been an improvement or more southeast yet it went further northwest (not for DC in particular but I went from a foot to six inches and from .3 of ice to .6 and an inch or two of sleet). I'm honestly not sure what happened to cause the warm air intrusion further south. Comparing the 18z Euro to 12z as Terpeast noted we see a good amount less phasing

When looking at the vort maps it becomes even stranger to me that things went the wrong way at the surface as the NS appears almost close to crushing the SW, especially if it was displaced any further east. 

Meanwhile 12z Euro has a whole ass triple phaser

The only negative I can denote is slightly less confluence on the 18z? Maybe? Either way it just shocks me the changes out west had no impact on the surface. Maybe if we got another run that had these exact changes we would see more meaningful consequences? 

So we have been aiming for less phasing! That is what was confusing me about this run as well...so we got less and yet the end result was...worse? If it turns out that way that means it would've literally invented a way to fail, lol But let's hope not

1 minute ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

Now we are on to who deserves more snow! 

If we'll play that game...how about the least snowy city in the state for the past decade: Baltimore!

At least 6"-10" is still on the table. Just don't want this trend to take that away too. If I can't break the 10 year-long warning snowfall drought with this storm then mean how? Lol

3 hours ago, mappy said:

Wouldn’t it be funny is Louis U was right and we get mix and rain instead 

Then this storm would go down in absolute infamy...