Maestrobjwa

25 minutes ago, mappy said:

Roads are brined up my way 

So all over the state they about to make the roads all ashy for no reason? Boo

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

2018 gave us snow even later than that.

The first day of spring was hilarious (I remember making a video to troll my friends who aren't big on snow, lol)

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree with all this. But on a side note, I (and the rest of northern MD) really needs this predominant cycle of the last 8 years where almost all our snow comes from these progressive w-e boundary waves to end.  It makes sense that some of our lowlands are doing way better wrt climo than here. It takes a lot less luck in those patterns to get to climo when you avg 17” than 39”  A couple lucky hits and you’re there. Up here I’m not lucking my way to a 40” that way!   I need the amplified coastal to come out of retirement!    

My question is...why have those w-e been so bad in our yards the last 8 years? Constantly hitting the same dang wall like that seems weird to me. Ya poked me a bit when I shared that post from Bluewave about something in the Pacific (ocean temps around Japam or something like that) possibly being a culprit...but this is why I did. Seems weird that those waves have setup at the exact same spot all this time.

9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

The what went wrong thread is going to be an interesting read.

Well, it doesn't have to be...I mean this to me just felt like something totally random in the flow that ultimately screwed it up.  It just wasn't meant to be this time around...just gotta flush this one and move on. All you can do, really.

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I haven't!  Might have to check it out.  I'm in a foul mood like my man B

Brooooo well this would be a perfect time to see it! It's a 3-part Docudrama, and Paul Rhys' Beethoven portrayal is the best one I've ever seen. All 3 parts are on YouTube for free (and each is an hour so you'll have plenty to distract ya )

Part 1:

https://youtu.be/QVtf5LbXB2s?si=Q5bAGHkuBIfTBnqe

Part 2:

https://youtu.be/tedQsfbcMQ0?si=0j14rjArDTUp_jqb

Part 3:

https://youtu.be/pHdyfuNnaOM?si=Tln-Dr9Zn7kv7FET

45 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looking at the models like:

This is from "The Genius of Beethoven" btw. Have you ever seen it?

https://x.com/AvaWBAL/status/1891447717366243549?t=Lfs_GQNcyLgo2AsGhF1tZQ&s=19

@mappy!!! Ava just said "I'm the problem it's me". So you are hereby guilty by association! 

5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Here's a few Euro ensemble runs from when we had the great snow maps with the OP but warning signs when looking under the hood 

 

 

I guess you'd expect to see more tucked members overall?

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Niñas usually double dip, I don’t know why that’s a surprise to some…

Yeah I'm not sure they do it EVERY time...I mean the 2017-18 nina didn't, and instead we got a weak niño instead. But double dipping does seem to happen more overall, smh

25 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s a tough fact to face that after two decades Im pulling away from this.  Did not even look at 11pm updates last night and already had cut it down to twice a day anyway .

Models can’t do their job as far as frozen storms in the mid Atlantic. 
Some will defend adamantly  the supplier as selling good shit or I use it wrongly but is easy to see what that smacks of.   
Carry  on but this  broken record of repeat poor performance is going nowhere while you still buy it . 

Pulling away? So you're NOT gonna be back next year to remind us about how poor they're doing? 

26 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If the PDO does indeed flip then if we get a Niño like last year’s then we could finally get the goods?

Well, that would be the next test. I mean last year was so insanely negative I wonder if that would've worked with any niño in the past (anybody have any analogs). You'd HOPE a modoki with a +PDO would yield a better result...but as with everything else ya still have to see what still works and how.

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

21-22 was the last time this happened.

Didn't that torch in February, though?

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll be tracking a window within a week imho. From what I see, another period of +pna/-epo is possible first 10 days of March and any "warmup" will be under a week. Last blocking collapse evolved into a -epo/+pna so there is precedence. Not the best snow pattern but it's March and things can be powderkeggy 

Brief, muted warm-ups followed by a quick return to cold has probably been THE most refreshing tendency of this season. I mean how often have we had to deal with the polar opposite the last several years? Lol

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know we’re upset about the modeling fail, and I am too… but objectively, this has been a decent winter south of i-70 especially after going in with -enso/-pdo/+qbo and a high chance of a wall-to-wall torch. 

I wouldn’t change my grade on this winter even if it ended today. C+/B- imby, B+/A- for the southeast zones who jacked twice in the biggest storms. My grade is based on  how much cold we had, how much snow fell, how many “snow days” we had, and how long snow cover lasted.

Model performance gets a totally separate grade, and I’m not as generous on that end. 

This is why I couldn't go any lower than a B- even with another winter below the median for my yard. We all expected it to be crappy coming in, and instead...the "feel" was wall-to-wall winter! A very pleasant surprise--really enjoyed January in particular...haven't had an almost month-long snowpack since what...2014?

Now, we don't talk about models (no, no, no)...

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No problems posting them or any map. They should all be posted because even fantasy runs are plenty useful in the thought algorithm. Using a 120+ hour map to make your final call with emotions attached and not accepting anything less? That's masochism man! 

This part. I think avoiding this emotional pitfall is key to ingesting these snowmaps in a healthy way. Don't start fantasizing when ya see them at 120+ hours--nip that in the bud and toss the pretty pinks aside as a non-reality. Otherwise...you WILL start to get attached subconsciously even when you logically know it's far from bejng set in stone. So I guess it's a bit of a mental discipline thing, lol

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I did express my concerns in the mid range. Even at the height of the runs I was pretty modest. I mentioned several times that a big cohesive storm had some problems but it was overridden with euro snow maps and intense optimism lol

I stand corrected, lol And you're right--that buried in a sea of pink Euro snowmaps...

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's a bias in play here. Gfs/gefs was getting ripped when it was weak and disorganized while the euro was going big. It was assumed to be wrong and would catch on to the euro. I looked at if different. To me it was a consistent warning sign that a cohesive storm had some problems. More that one. 

It seems like a model collapse when consensus showed the northern piece being a thorn instead of a boom. But there were plenty of warning signs not to jump on the boom bandwagon and I never did. Never doubted an OK storm, but those big totals never seemed real to me. 

I'll say this, this place would be a lot more fun if people would stop marrying mid range high end fantasy stuff. Anything less is unacceptable but less is a near certainty.... time and time again over and over lol. The majority of our storms are looked at with turd colored glasses come gametime  because of this. Even when it produces what's expected in the short range. 

Never hold back your alarm bells, Bob! I think it would go a long way in setting more realistic expectations around here--seriously!

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No when things are bad I’m not a blow smoke up your ass rainbows and sunshine kinda person.  When my team loses in the playoffs I don’t say “there’s always next year”. “Ya and the odds of us winning are no better, actually they’re worse we could suffer injuries and not even make the playoffs”.  And I’m not that way with snow. You have no idea when the next opportunity with this good a setup comes along. We don’t know yet if the PDO is actually flipping. We might not get another shot like this for 5 years. Next year we could get another 2020 Or 2023 type winter!  DCA only beats climo 1-2 times a decade. What if this was that good winter and we just got unlucky and missed our chance and now we have 6 more awful dreg years to suffer through before we get another!  
 

Im not who you come to for comfort if you need to see the bright side. Im a dose of reality good or bad. When it’s bad I dive into that lake of misery and swim in it. I cleanse myself in the fire through pain and lowery. And I come out the other side hardened and ready to go to battle again and take on whatever shit tomorrow has to throw at me. 

Whoa...wasn't expecting that lecture. I never meant that you should sugarcoat anything. You keep things realistic and we need that. And I'm not telling YOU how to post, per se. That was just MY opinion on the "what if" part of this we don't know yet. That unknown is also part of the reality. We don't know--You could be right, or perhaps it could be better. We can choose which one we focus on in the midst of any disappointment over this winter.

Funny...one poster skewered me terribly for debbing on his unlimited optimism about a winter (and folks in general when I'd say in the Fall I doubted the winter results) And now I counter with a positive spin and get this. Ah, well...can't please everybody 

So...what are the early thoughts on ENSO next year? 

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Plot turn: as these things happen at or below our latitude less and less frequently it makes missing each opportunity even more catastrophic 

It might be healthier if we don't go there, lol And actually...here's another plot turn: The first year in awhile (9 years?) that we didn't have a deeply negative PDO (but rather slightly negative) we also had our best opportunities...so maybe that means we'll have more opportunities if it is indeed flipping? 

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’m just so shocked on how big the euro failed on this one. Can say I believe it now as much as any other model. 

I feel like they all crapped the bed in the midrange with this one.

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

50 mile shift is very possible

To the east

Shoulda spaced that out more for full effect, lol

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Chivas 18. Yeah it did a number on me last night.

And in turn did a number on the forum, lol

6 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

The slow rebound starts at 0Z FOLKS. Look alive and pick your chins up. 

Really putting it on the line aren't you? Lol

Welp, I guess that's that for this winter barring a miracle comeback. 

This winter was a mixed bag for me. I am glad it looked and felt like winter most of the time. We had true cold air to work with all season, and warm-ups were the exception not the rule. You'd have cold, brief warm intrusion, then cold--polar opposite of years like 22-23, lol After all the "too warm" discussions we've had...this time winter felt like winter. I mean we actually had a snowpack for almost the entire month of January--when's the last time that happened? This winter was no where near as hopelessly nina as any of us thought it would be. Even February wasn't a complete torch, lol That too warm thread was abandoned this year 

Now, while this winter gets an A+ for a winter atmosphere with consistent cold and snowpack, the results were downright mediocre for my yard. Fringed over and over again, smh I was hoping this would be the year I finally broke the streak of not getting at least a 6" snowfall. But alas...Baltimore's rough stretch continues. If this week's threat doesn't come back, this would be the 6th year in a row I didn't even get to median let alone average. The last 9 years have been below typical climo (so for those thinking my expectations are "unrealistic"...I'd like to think all of you would expect your climo. I do, and it just hasn't gotten there for quite awhile.)

So, my overall grade: B-.