Maestrobjwa

The worst part is...sleet is difficult to shovel and I have chronic fatigue syndrome. So not only will the snow likely not be warning level, but now it's gonna require twice the amount of energy to shovel and twice as long. 

Shoveling isn't easy for me, but it's worth it when it's a great event. Shoveling an underachiever with the added toilet of sleet is even worse. I'll probably turn on Beethoven and pound the crap out of it, lol

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Honestly haven't seen too many tantrums yet, mostly people being real about possibilities.   We're getting a winter storm and we're all going to enjoy it.  

I'm gonna try to, man. I've gotten better at enjoying it when it comes. Like I have enjoyed and appreciated small snowfalls more the last few years because that's all I've had. But I am absolutely bummed to miss warning level again (minus the sleet I'm guessing 4-5 inches). Last 10 years have beaten me up snow-wise. Can't get over the hump...

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’d track a limbless torso

Oh the macabre! I'm gonna guess you love horror movies, lol

Regular GFS does have a signal for something...messy output but still a signal.

Hm...after what appears to be a growing debacle tomorrow...we really wanna track this one if it has legs? Lol

We Baltimorians have every right to be cantankerous more than anybody else in this sub. We have had it the absolute worst--never in our history have we gone 10 years without recording 6" or more. (BWI doesn't count btw as both times more fell there than in the city itself).

3 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

I swear reading the models thread you would think it's going to be 40 and raining all day tomorrow. I get it, we aren't getting a foot of snow, but damn people.

Bruh...10 years without a 6" snowstorm. A very low bar. And now that drought is looking to continue based on trends...so yeah.

4 minutes ago, T. August said:

Ready for it to snow. This was a tough week of tracking. Sucks that we couldn’t maximize what was on the table, but hopefully we come out with something that sticks around for 2 weeks.

My guesses (snow/sleet):

DCA: 5.2”

IAD: 5.8”

BWI: 5.7”

mby: 6.2” (4.5” snow)

I feel like the max south of the M/D line will be relatively low - something like 9”.

In the scenario...once again I fail to hit the 6" mark, and the 10 year drought continues. Man I'm this close to moving on to next year's nino. If we have anything to track for next weekend I will, but otherwise? Screw ninas.

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nope. Folks just getting hangry over the usual silliness.

Increasing odds of busting low with more sleet is hardly what I'd call silliness...but you're right we hangry, lol

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And that is largely a function of h5 shortwave interactions. As I have said- say it with me- all our hopes and dreams are determined by random wave interactions and timing.

....that are much easier in Niños  See we don't have as much problem in those. And y'all wonder why I rant about ninas so much. Ninos are so much simpler with the wave interactions as long as the cold is there.

Alright Imma need next weekend to produce...that's all I'm saying. This weekend kinda hurts, lol

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Almost everything that could go wrong with this one has, honestly. It’s a miracle the cold is so cold or we’d’ve been out of this one a couple days ago.

This is what ninas do...and people wonder why I complain about them. NS rarely plays nice. If we had this same amount of moisture in a niño with this cold we'd be looking at a MECS or more.

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

More phasing/amplification allows the primary low to track further north with a later transfer to the coast- and the developing coastal low is tucked. Earlier runs were less amped/ w flatter flow, a weaker primary with earlier transfer further south and the coastal low tracking ENE off the coast- this setup spares the area from too much warm air moving in aloft and at the surface in the vicinity of the coastal low. The warming is temporary as the colder air comes back in afterwards.

 

 

So in other words...just bad luck with the track, smh

16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Sticking with the middle of the road forecast I made earlier, not panicking over the bad CAM runs. 4-8” mix/ice DC metro, 6-10” sleet fest with some zr NW

Prediction for Baltimore?

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Internal ratio on TT has me at 8 so I would abscond. But wish the CAMs would come around. At least, CAMs other than the FV3 lol.

Same, lol If we don't fall into solid 6-10" territory it's a bust...full stop!

Just now, yoda said:

 

A slight improvement, perhaps?

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ggem

 

Might be it's snowiest run so far?

3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Oh, man, I love classical but I only recognize the greats and would have no idea who to recommend to someone with the handle maestro.  I just ask Alexa to put on an Apple Music playlist.  I also love 40's jazz and crooners.

Hahaha Hey literally any orchestra, brass band, choirs, soloists...and anybody else who elevate Christmas carols (i.e. Mormon Tabernacle)

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

I do a ton of Christmas decorating so I leave it up longer than most. So with the storm coming, I've been getting my morning coffee, firing up the laptop for tracking, lighting the tree and village, running the train, and listening to classical Christmas music.  It's been a great week.  

Ah classical Christmas music? Awesome  Who do you listen to? Always looking for things to add to the playlist for next year

Just now, stormtracker said:

No. ICON.  GFS not in range yet

Wait...I just saw the end if the ICON on Pivotal (the two waves were there but didn't interact through the end of the run)

Just now, stormtracker said:

ICON stuck at 156 , but players are all there

Did you mean the GFS?

NAM replacement held serve with other guidance.

19 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I had no idea.

Yep. That happened twice, actually.

January 3rd 2022 - BWI recorded 6.1", spotter report closer to the city was 5"

The one we had early January last year: BWI recorded 6.8"...spotter report in the city wad 4".

Now you see why I get cantankerous about this, lol

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

I actually planned on doing a revised forecast tonight, but the models are not handling the HP out west well at all. I'll release a final call tomorrow at 18z.

Modeling it too weak or too strong?

1 minute ago, Wow said:

Enjoy ice!

Booooo, lol

Hey I commented in the technical help thread but didn't hear anything (do you run that?): The "yes" emoji gid has been broken for awhile and I was wondering if there was any fixing to it.

And I've always been curious: What character is your profile pic showing?

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

I thought the NAM was sort of useful 5 minutes before precip start? And even then it’s wrong AF! Am I missing something here!? LOL. I guess we all have nothing else to do at this point except look for how we can fail? Jeez! Manifest some positive vibes, peeps! It’s going to snow. Be happy that we can actually still snow in our new semi-tropical climate. 

We've had sleet busts before...that's why it's concerning.