Maestrobjwa

4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Agree.  I can recall several advisory to warning-level snows between late February and mid-March, it's really not all that rare of a thing relatively speaking.  I know there are those who tend to thumb their nose at later season snow events but we've had a decent number.  And in not the greatest setups, too.

I'll just note I'm just talking the last week of Feb not March. March snow is annoying to track but it most certainly happens.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

dude do you realize how rare getting a 5" plus snowstorm is on any particular week?  How often in the last 20 years have we had a 5" snowstorm ANY week?  

Yeah I know. I'm just saying...this weeks feel like worse luck than other weeks call it a slight superstition or whatever. Like sports when a team just doesn't play well in a particular situation over decades.

It's just like the "weekend rule"...snows more on the weekends than it does during the week!

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What's wrong with saying something in a way that's less insulting? 

I think a few people struggle with that on this board. But that's the nature of online debate and disagreement....

21 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Suns out, guns out. Get those lawnmowers tuned up. Crocus bloom watch.

 

Turrible. Just turrible.

46 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

You are constantly harping on this. Sure, the overwhelming majority of MECS and HECS have occurred before Feb 20th but to say there been little in the way of any snow during the last 1/3 of February is simply not true. Your own words are "very, very few snowfalls of any kind those two weeks". You couldn't be more wrong and I'm not trying to be nasty. Please provide data or do some research before making such a bold statement. I'm only calling you out on this because you make reference to it quite often. Just take the last 40 years. 1986,1987,1993,2003,2005,2007,2014,2015,2021 all saw events and some of those years were quite snowy periods. There were many years with close misses that still yielded some snow for certain parts of the region or had significant storms the first few day of March such as 1984,1994,1996,1999,2009,2011,2017 and 2019. My set of years are based from Feb 20th through March 1st. If you include the full last 2 week of February like you did in your post then your position worsens greatly. 2013 got a little snowy for NW and of course the epic fail the first week in March. This isn't even including countless C-2/3 inch events not even worth mentioning.

Let me clarify by saying that when I say it doesn't happen often I'm talking primarily of snows that are warning-level (5"+ And I'm only speaking of the cities (i.e. BWI) not so much N&W. Sorry I didn't clarify that part.

Now admittedly...what I don't know how to do is how to isolate Feb 20th-28th and last week of December to see just what fell each year. What's the best way to do that? I'm more than willing to take time to put the stats together I just don't know how. I need to see how many snowfalls over 5" we've gotten the last week of December and the last week of February AT BWI.

And btw I'm not at all talking about March. We got 5" there several years ago.

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

Definitely not the last shot by seasonal perspective, but I find March to be truly overrated in the snow dept. Really can’t rely on that around here. But it is kinda weird how we don’t get much snow it seems in late February…it’s kinda like our late December void.

Don't get me started, lol Historically it's always been that way! Very few warning snowfalls during those weeks. No scientific reason for it...it just never works out. Even 2010 had a fail that last week of Feb, and then that which shall not be named happened the last week of Dec! Again, nothing scientific...but it's like sports when a team just never plays well in a certain stadium or park, lol

Just now, Ji said:

I love being the lead overnight meteorologist when no is awake or believes lol

Anyway this a a decent shift

Till 6z

How did the AIFS look?

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ai models probably don’t have the computing to forecast precise phases

This is gonna be an interesting test for them.

Just now, bncho said:

very close to a region wide MECS. NYC gets the big totals this time.

 

Oh wow

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Magnesium supplements usually do the trick. I was taking it for muscle recovery and sleep. But then I found out it had a side effect lol, at least for me. Dose dependent. I backed it off and now ok.

We've gone from extrapolation to excrapolation

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Really trying to piss me off

Wait who is that? Lol

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

the ensembles are still north of the OP. Should be interesting. models will have a hard time with the timing of the ejecting low vs the northern stream. Keep hope alive. Where is cape?

AIFS remain south, though...at this point we gotta trust them more than then the EPS.

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

it was close enough not to give up on 

I don't know...Euro AI is locked in and in fact went even more south. Unless that changes this one is probably done.

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro is a runnin

AI Euro running away with the precip altogether...allllll the way south. I mean dang, lol Never thought this would morph into a total whiff altogether!

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Gotta wait for the Doctor, he will decide it

If the Doctor's AI doesn't show a hit, he'll probably be south too, lol

24 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

yeah if the op euro is just chasing the AIFS which has consistently been south we're cooked.

Yeah and we've seen these AI ops refuse to move once they get locked on an idea, smh I'd love to see a positive trend on those in the next day or so to have more confidence in our chances...

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

If this snowstorm happens I'm convinced it's because of George Washington's rant.

Wait when was the rant? Haha

Just now, mattskiva said:

So clearly this is the banter thread now right?  Cause scrolling through page after page of this noise to find like 2 posts about model runs is just, well, a joyous way to spend the day

 

Oddly enough, Round 2 of this debate has been technically on topic though page consuming, lol

Huh...OP Euro actually looking like it's AI counterpart. Completely suppressed this run!

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah it's the GFS, but

Here's later that day.. probably a little extreme but it shows that there is some potential for a nice warm up. Sounding says DCA is 75F. 

Nice? Maaaaan ain't nobody but the heat misers want that right now, lol But a pronounced SER would fit nina clomo though...

Wonder how long it'll take before the AIs finally correct themselves? Lol I'd bet on Day 5!

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

If the GFS verified it'd be a storm with no frozen at all in mid Feb, not even on the northern edge of precip (which extends to NYC), save for a few very tiny ZR pockets that are just 32 degree rain

It sounds like the problem here is more of a timing isssue. In the runs that snowed the precip came in earlier. But with the most recent ones...things develop so slow that the cold air is already scoured out by the time the storm gets here. But I could be wrong. @psuhoffman feel free to clarify

Well...at least this is an on-topic back and forth  But still though...lol

Just now, psuhoffman said:

You just deflected right past my point and launched right back into yours. Ignoring the “why do we keep seeing ridges that were unheard of 50 years ago commonly now” 

Round 2...debate!

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

We need like weekly 1” rain events for a couple months and then a juicy thunderstorm season. Drought just won’t quit us…

I'd imagine the El Niño could help with that, right?