Maestrobjwa

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

It's subtle, the GFS did cave a bit back to the west at 850mb looking at the isohypses. Not as far as other global guidance (Euro, UKMET, CMC, etc.) It's still very aggressive on it's coastal development along the warm front. More so than other models, which in turn slows down the WF advance northward.

So safe to say if we a similar cave at 6z then it's on it's way, lol Goodness gracious this model

Just now, TowsonWeather said:

I mean, I'm as skeptical as everyone else that this will verify, but you're reaching some here, I think. These are mostly noise level differences.

Yeah I mean I guess if we see those features strengthen/weaken again at 6z then perhaps it is a trend. But hard to tell that right now

Just now, stormtracker said:

Wow...if it caves it will be the most wrong the GFS has ever been on a storm we're tracking, lol I mean we're at 72 hrs and no change! I mean it HAS to happen at 12z tomorrow if it's gonna happen, right?

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

But the thing is, it isn't. Any storm like this has the same odds to uptrend or downtrend regardless of ENSO state. It just doesn't matter in this small of a timeframe.

How so? NS is busier in ninas, right? So that means disruptions are more likely...right?

6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Exactly.  Yeah, when looking at a monthly or seasonal forecast or trends, the ENSO state of course has an impact on what to expect or what may happen.  But a specific storm such as this doesn't suddenly say to itself, "Oh, shoot!  It's a Nina!  I better start backing off on snow amounts!"

Lol Not quite what I mean. If you track a storm in a nina, ya gotta lower your expectations even more because nina crap is more likely to get in the way and mess it up. I mean look where we are right now...

4 minutes ago, Nomz said:

I don't understand the comments about the ENSO state for a system within 72 hours. The ENSO is helpful for long-range guesstimating, not short-term anything. Is it less likely to have a MECS in a Niña? Yes. If the correct ingredients are there for a MECS, and it happens to be in a Niña, will it still happen? Yes. ENSO only affects the odds of the players coming to the table. Once the players are on the table, the atmosphere cares not if it's Niña or Niño; a storm won't downtrend or uptrend solely because of the ENSO state.

What I'm saying is when trying to track a storm in a nina and you're 72 hours out...the complications that are most likely getting in the way are always the same: NS disruptions because it's simply too busy in ninas. What we're seeing now is no different: Too much phasing, too little...this GL low got in the way, this ns feature interfered at the wrong time, and on and on. I'd bet if we had this same slug of stj moisture coming right at us in a Niño with cold in place, it would be nice and simple. That's why I feel like enso state does play a role in what we see when we track a storm like this.

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

Let's hope he likes next weekend better 

Don't chase a coastal in a nina if you value your mental health, lol

Just now, wxmeddler said:

Yeahhh... The AI's, Euro, and MPAS based cores seem to be leaning that way. In a way the coastal "low" is just pressure falls along the warm front due to the insane isentropic lift occurring.

So the expected totals for this thing can still go down, then...

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Just stop looking at the GFS man. It is literally worthless. 

Unless is pulls off a massive coup, it's performance with this storm has just damaged it's credibility even more. Who can trust it with anything?

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Sleet in the teens/20s could be fun

I don't understand the fun with sleet, lol (other than it being a pack preserver)

Just now, stormtracker said:

8" on the ICON before we flip (Kuchera tho). 10:1 is like 6/7

And BWI? (It would be great if folks could include that in pbp )

Not losing the floor (6-10") is the goal here...

8 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

You know what's really interesting... The Euro-AIFS and AIGFS are really similar. Like scarily so.

Interesting good or interesting bad? Lol

Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Off topic, but I don't think I've ever seen someone get ten different reactions to a post before. That's gotta be a record. I clicked on 'clap' just to make it eleven. 

You played out my intrusive thought that I resisted to do that...thank you, lolol

Just now, Amped said:

Ecmwf, Rgem and even the Nam usually handle warm air aloft better than the GFS.

That they do. However the GFS has a different track with the primary altogether...so it being colder kinda lines up with that track.

Just now, snowfan said:

The Ravens just like to hire people associated with Jim, John and Michigan.

Well the last guy they hired from Michigan is doing pretty good right now 

The Ravens have made their choice:

Jessie Minter!

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It hasn't.  It's strange because it's usually playing catchup and never leading the way.  I expect a full cave tonight.

Yeah if it doesn't cave tonight and other models don't start caving to it, then the GFS is in even worse shape than ever, lol

Just now, Ji said:

for the love of Marcus and dryness...please for once be right in the history

Wait, who? Lol

Just now, Interstate said:

I thought it was the newer version of the RGEM

Let me shut up, lol

Just now, jayyy said:

What’s the RDPS


.

RGEM--small version of the CMC basically

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Wish I had the willpower to do that! And this site sometimes…

Certainly feels like one bad run always starts a trend. 
 

 

And the thing is it's not even "the elephant" now...we got the cold but it always feels like there's 50,000 bad variations that can happen. Like random crap...stuff just finds a way to fall apart and I just don't get it.

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah I feel all that. This is a pretty shitty hobby and we’re in a historic snow drought. My son asked me something similar last weekend “why does it always get worse for snow?” Lol. 
 

Don’t have much useful advice except take a step back for your own mental health. 18z euro yesterday sorta triggered me for some reason and I just put my phone away at 7pm for the rest of the night. I wish I had the strength to just ignore everything until snow starts falling Saturday evening lol. 

Maaaan you ain't lying. I think I'm reaching that point today. It's like everything gets more complicated, can barely keep up with what "trend" we need to look for, all the "we need this to do that but not to fast, or slow, or north, or south...oh now here's another fail scenario"....bruh I'm tired. That's why any prospect of tracking a storm for next weekend just makes me like ugghhh I wanna just turn it all off and wait till next Friday, lol Again...TIRED

Ninja'd by @SnowenOutThere on that sentence, lol

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Wiki article says Falls Church got 13". I totally believe you though... classic DCA crummy elevation screw job.

Dang. I mean even BWI recorded 13" for the Baltimore record!

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I feel like confluence is one of those things that never trends stronger going into gametime. Maybe it's just the position we usually watch from, but I feel like we're always watching it weaken. Or maybe I'm totally crazy.

Ohhh it did once...when NC got that blizzard in Dec 2018...oof. I remember that lobe up there trending stronger and stronger, lol