Maestrobjwa

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

If this snowstorm happens I'm convinced it's because of George Washington's rant.

Wait when was the rant? Haha

Just now, mattskiva said:

So clearly this is the banter thread now right?  Cause scrolling through page after page of this noise to find like 2 posts about model runs is just, well, a joyous way to spend the day

 

Oddly enough, Round 2 of this debate has been technically on topic though page consuming, lol

Huh...OP Euro actually looking like it's AI counterpart. Completely suppressed this run!

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah it's the GFS, but

Here's later that day.. probably a little extreme but it shows that there is some potential for a nice warm up. Sounding says DCA is 75F. 

Nice? Maaaaan ain't nobody but the heat misers want that right now, lol But a pronounced SER would fit nina clomo though...

Wonder how long it'll take before the AIs finally correct themselves? Lol I'd bet on Day 5!

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

If the GFS verified it'd be a storm with no frozen at all in mid Feb, not even on the northern edge of precip (which extends to NYC), save for a few very tiny ZR pockets that are just 32 degree rain

It sounds like the problem here is more of a timing isssue. In the runs that snowed the precip came in earlier. But with the most recent ones...things develop so slow that the cold air is already scoured out by the time the storm gets here. But I could be wrong. @psuhoffman feel free to clarify

Well...at least this is an on-topic back and forth  But still though...lol

Just now, psuhoffman said:

You just deflected right past my point and launched right back into yours. Ignoring the “why do we keep seeing ridges that were unheard of 50 years ago commonly now” 

Round 2...debate!

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

We need like weekly 1” rain events for a couple months and then a juicy thunderstorm season. Drought just won’t quit us…

I'd imagine the El Niño could help with that, right?

Meanwhile the AIs continue to show something completely different...I don't get it, lol

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ehhhh its progression makes sense sadly. Not saying its right but with this pattern we are relying solely on timing so a situation where the 50/50 is too progressive and we end up without any cold at all is possible. Though I guess it's a less damning storm in terms of PSU's climate change book if that happens. 

I was just thinking the same: As long as it's not a logbook fail, I'll take that if need be, lol

2 hours ago, Ji said:

we have had warm rain storms before. 1988 had the uttimate wet storm. I dont think we fell under 32 the entire time and got like 12 inches of snow lol

Did you mean warm snow storms?

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

By classic, do you mean Chuck Berry, Page or Hendrix?

Nah as in classical music classical guitar  Various Baroque composers (i.e. Bach) Spanish composers, and other guitar adaptations of classical music

32 minutes ago, mappy said:

What’s so funny? It’s true. 

I didn’t understand a word of anything he sang but it was entertaining and I enjoyed quite a bit. 
I mean it was better than Katy Perry’s dancing sharks 

I was just thinking about that stupid left shark thing the other day, haha

Just now, Ji said:

the thread is like seeing cape do a guitar solo without a band

Haha Ah but on the other hand if it's classical guitar it's perfectly soloable 

5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Euro AI and Euro are... different. at 500mb.

@CAPE Your technical thread falling off already? 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, obviously my time frame for the SSW will not work out after looking likely a week ago...but I'm till not convinced we don't pull it off later in the month.

Those things are really, really hard to predict, aren't they?

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

it seems lost---maybe its "learning" this pattern

I was about to say...as good as it has been, I'm sure eventually there will be a pattern/setup it might struggle with! I mean that solution there looks like it's copying something suppressive from 10 days ago, lol

Just now, stormtracker said:

I’m talking after that storm. 

I get ya. Missing the blizzard kinda hurt. Now...from an unselfish, greater good standpoint, given how things had just gotten paralyzed by the glacier, perhaps it was better we didn't get that on top of it. Make no mistake I wanted it ALL, but I can kinda see the grace in that outcome too.

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro AI is so far south--we dont even get precip

 

Yeah that doesn't look right...I mean it's the only OP showing suppression. I'm not even sure it's ensemble members are gonna do that. But eh, what do I know? 

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I think for us in the cities this is probably going to be the best case scenario. It’s either this or all rain. Just sucks because we had all this cold air and nothing to show for it 

Except the glacier that snarled the cities for a week?  (I mean maybe DC was better but it sure had the effect of a foot of snow here!). I don't get the nothing to show for it part of this...no we don't have as MUCH as we could've had, but this is far from nothing. And by Nina standards even more so.

Ukie with a thump as well...

I'd take the stat pad...though snow immediately washed away by a bunch of rain is my least favorite kind. I'd love for the heaviest to be snow and just some liiiiight rain afterward to keep some of the snow around 

2 hours ago, mappy said:

Ummm yes. The whole performance was full of symbolism 

And that's a big part of what made it so good! I didn't understand a word except mannana but I felt all the themes, and I felt the very soul of Puerto Rico throughout the entire performance. The music was better than I expected (not my usual cup of tea but I can objectively appreciate quality of music if when I hear it!)...and the entire production was fantastic!

3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Yes!! Lol

I may have spoken a tad soon, lol Still got some time...

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

That’s good because that model is never right

I mean is it that far off from the others this time, though? Seems like they all have things forming too late to catch the last of this cold. I know the AIs are still south, but...