Maestrobjwa

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR at 48 hours

Bruh that thing can't even get 48 seconds right!

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

From a climatology/historical perspective, that's insane.

Like seriously...how often do you see that??

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This would be the thing that causes that 4 day reshuffle. May it fall in our favor. 

Reshuffle...nah we can keep the deck just the way it is That sounds foreboding-- like that new data getting ingested and we suddenly get skunked at 12z or something, lol I know that has a lower liklihood, but I don't wonder if "huge jumps" like that are still on the table.

2 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I don't want Ji representing any part of my subconscious!!!!!

For all who love snow...he does! Whether we like it or not, lolol

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

 

apply your own ratios 

I knew this run was gonna go nuclear as soon as @bncho said the sw ejected faster. Good gloppity!!

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 12z "traditional" Euro EPS really upped the ante for Philly. Several double digit hits, and only a few duds (less than 3"). Out of 50 members, I only count 11% (6 members) with less than 3" of snow. Everything else is warning level or better. Again, what a signal from Dr. No at this range.

 

 

And if THEY'RE starting to get double digits hits in there...

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

That's probably the closest the red has been to MD so far!

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

GFS OP  is prone to big jumps.  That’s why everyone says rely on ENS over 3 days out.  

And one part of our brains knows that. But the other part of our subconscious Ji represents yelled and screamed anyway

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z.

Lolol Bruh what is wrong with this thing?

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Totals 

Wow...and that's stuff NOT coming together as good as it could be? Sweet mercy

15 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

AI-GFS considerably north of 12Z run. ~0.8 QPF for DC; ~1.1 for SoMD.

Any chance folks can start posting QPF and snowfall amounts for BWI/Baltimore during PBP? 

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Do you take Zelle? Every these days is wireless. 

I take Zelle, Pelle, Dell...

Actually with being a musician I've had to get all the forms of electronic pay, haha

Just now, bncho said:

Baja blast low less closed off hr 51

I have that trademarked--that'll be $5 in lunch money please

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

I just send snow maps and say “it might do this, it might not, I’ll update later” and leave it at that haha but yes I agree completely. I have coworkers bash weather people all the time for being wrong and they don’t know I’m a weather nerd. Have to bite my tongue a lot 

Yeah I try to urge people to give forecasters some grace because trying to get it right is much more difficult than they know, that the atmosphere is complex, and that sometimes weather does whatever the heck it wants, lol Mets are using their expertise to make the best prediction possible!

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That's it. People are anxious.. need something to look at NOW and either validate their hopes or stress the fuck over.

Man you are in a zero craps to give mode these days aren't you? Lol

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

No idea why anyone here, let alone the NWS, would give 2 shits about the 12km NAM. Esp extrapolating lol. That model is damn near useless.

Do you think they were just talking about the energy that you can see through 60 hrs...and comparing that to the GFS at the same point?

4 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Retired military worked with the some of the elite. Now working doing what I do best and the money is great. Getting ready to retire a second time and have been ask to return for a couple days a week.

Thank you for your service, sir!

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What an awesome batch of overnight runs. To make things even better, I get to be on a panel at IMD today that moderate by Dr. Louis Uccellini. 

Wow the U of KU himself??? That is awesome!

1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said:

This accumulation distribution matches the January 22/23 1940 storm pretty closely. Richmond received 21" and DC got 15". I believe that is still the biggest storm on record for Richmond. 

No idea if any part of the pattern or storm evolution is also a match, but there is at least historical precedence for accumulations like this. 

1940? Well dang Baltimore must've gotten skunked then because BWI recorded 9.8 inches on the month, lol

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I could see this being one of those where the local mets go 4-8. Then up it to 6-10. Then up it again to 10-14. I used to love watching Bob Ryan constantly upping the totals. Always made me chuckle. He was the original DC snow weenie. 

That's what I remember from 2010. I mean every broadcast it kept going up and up and up...and my mom and I were like "HERE????? "

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looking at the individual EPS members (nice WxBell maps incoming) it's pretty clear the only reasonable cause for concern is suppression. Northern stream running out too far ahead of the southern stream (ULL slowing down) would be my specific concern with what we're seeing but hopefully we've got some room.

And basically that has to do with how that Baja low rejects, right? (Nervous about that part, lol)

Just now, bncho said:

I mean...that is indeed a hold! Just gotta stay level-headed (good luck with that, lol).

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

0z comparison?

1 minute ago, Alfoman said:

Was nice while it lasted GFS 

Can't get comfortable until we are sure the models are gonna get this part right 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

It is definitely holding back a little bit.

Don't start this mess, gfs lol