Maestrobjwa

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Last I want to say on this, I did that "upstairs analysis" several times over the last 10 days I've scrolled through the daily plots on the control runs, saw some H5 pass through VA, a 990 low off the delmarva and was like "there is our HECS" then went to the snow maps and was like..."where's the snow".  It was up in northern PA, similar to that storm 3 weeks ago.  It's also worth noting that the EPS Mean kind of hints at the same thing, with a trough axis to our south indicating a good storm track, but with a snow mean displaced north of us.  

So while everyone is drooling over the EPS H5, and I am too, I am just trying to put it out there that the EPS is hinting that we might have temp issues despite the perfect pattern.  Will we, who knows...but if it goes down that way the guidance did warn us.  That's all.  

Man I hope not...mercy (goes to panic room) That would unfortunately answer "the question". So snow means can predict temperature too?

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I keep thinking about that storm cause it was so wet. Had it been 1 -2 degrees colder we would be sitting at about 25 inches is snow right now heading for probably an epic winter. I degree really destroyed what could of been a severe January

I chalked that up to a Niño early Jan being a Niño early Jan, lol I'd like to see how many Niños actually produced in early January.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Longer range guidance does a little better seeing where the general track of major waves might be.  

And when it comes to temperature?

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

 I agree it's not something to be overly worried about.  But I think its worth mentioning and taking note that the guidance is not aligning the snow output with what you would expect looking at the pattern.  

Given all the fails the last 7 years, even something like this kinda brings on the "Oh look the other shoe dropping" when other things seem to be looking better. Not sure I can fully enjoy any of the good looks now knowing there's even a tiny chance the snow means are a red flag since they line up with what you've been talking about. Man...this is enough to make you pull your hair out, because we're kinda on the edge here, needing this season to produce...but all this with the foreboding "this may not work anymore" and it's mildly stressful. I hope we can get our KU MECS/HECS despite everything!

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I acknowledged I usually don't put much stock in the snowfall products BUT this isn't totally accurate, yes usually they are pretty close to climo but the few times over the years I've seen the extended products look that THAT, they usually did show a mean skewed south into the mid atlantic.  The tell tale sign is when the snow mean doesn't really even increase to the north much until you get way into Canada.  I saw that back in 2019 for example.  It never happened because the extended guidance was wrong about the pattern and that amazing looking Feb 2010 clone pattern just never actually became a reality.  There were times in 2014, 2015, and 2016 when the snow means at weeks 3-5 showed a crazy anomaly centered over the mid atlantic also....and guess what we got some big snows eventually each of those years.  We just have not had the kind of patterns where the guidance SHOULD be showing much of a positive snow anomaly over us the last 8 years.  March 2018 I also think towards late Febuary the extended guidance was showing a mean skewed south with that coming blocking episode.  In the end we had 2 storms suppressed and squashed during that window so it was too much blocking maybe.  

Another point, I have been keeping an eye on the control runs to see what they show to get an idea of what an individual member might look like.  This only works when the control matches the mean pattern but most runs it has.  There have been several OMG LOOK AT THAT PATTERN runs of the control in the last week...and yet DC had little or no snow from them!  That isn't an issue with a mean, that is an individual run that was saying despite a -3stdv block and perfect pacific we were going to see several storms manage to track north enough for us to get mostly rain from the pattern.  The other day there seemed to be a few perfect track rainstorms in there judging from the daily SLP plots.  Saw a few daily SLP where I was like ok there is our HECS then the snow plots showed nothing until up in PA.  

I agree it's not something to be overly worried about.  But I think its worth mentioning and taking note that the guidance is not aligning the snow output with what you would expect looking at the pattern.  

I echo someone else who asked this earlier: What did those snow means show for last week before it happened?

4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

But it can also sap any fun or enjoyment if we get some good storms this year if we're going to constantly worry that "it's not enough to offset the past 7!!!"

Now this part here...for me, it's not necessarily about "offsetting" the past 7. Those are past now. But it's the fact that if we don't see a MECS or HECS this season, we may be waiting even longer than the 8 years we already have been. And overall, we may be waiting longer for an above average season if we don't get it here. I know I don't want to have to wait through two more ninas and who knows what else...so there is more worry than usual about this year producing...because there is a high degree of uncertainty beyond this year.

I get what you're saying about focusing on the here and now...I certainly did that last week. I enjoyed the heck out of those 8-9" (even made a snow angel...despite the fact that I forgot to move my legs...been awhile so I'm rusty ).

People need to be more compassionate given the unprecedented stretch we've been through. There is no arguing how bad it's been. So what is all this "Ugghhh why are people complaining???" Uh...hello? Have you seen the dang BWI/DCA snow totals lately?

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

the complaining is ridiculous.  Unless folks live in the far western parts of our region (Davis, Canaan, Deep Creek,etc), expecting reliable snowfall from winter to winter isn't a thing around here.  The standard deviation of annual snowfall from most of our climate sites has to be off the charts.

Last 7 years: Least snowiest years in our history. What one could reasonably expect in our city climo wasn't even met. I don't get why people don't understand that...this is the worst stretch in many of our lifetimes. I'm 33 and have never gone 7 years without getting at leasd one footer, or a period with two less than 2-inch winters in a three year span. This is not what I consider the "normal" inconsistent snowfall. That 7 year period has felt worse to me.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and to think people are punting the rest of the winter. fucking insane

gotta suck to be that jaded

Consider the reason why people are jaded, man. The last 7 years ring a bell? I don't get why folks are so perplexed about why some are the way they are. You fail that many times (and in different ways) in a seven year period...you tell me...Why is it hard to understand why somebody would be jaded?

Asking for the game Sunday: Game is at 3 pm...y'all think it's gonna be a washout, or more spotty/scattered as the coastal transfer (if I'm identifying it right) starts?

17 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Seems like the same issue we've had outside of basically the last week. It's just not cold enough.

Not sure this fits under the same category. This would be a marginal setup in any decade (except maybe the snowin' 60s, lol). But the fact that some parts of the forum maybe able to squeeze something out of this is encouraging, imo

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Late Feb into early March would be the prime time for something big looking at the h5 evolution on the weeklies/extended products verbatim. Subject to some change ofc.

Well that would fly in the face of our history...lol It's not scientific, but man that post PD wall feels so real when you look at that list! For some reason...big ones just don't come after that. March 1993 (anomalous), March 1958...that's it, lol

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I just did. I’ve been very sick and thought maybe I missed something. Now I’m just confused. I think perhaps people are interpreting the same posts differently.  I’m not trying to fight. I don’t have the energy. If people are saying where we are now is unacceptable that’s a little silly. We’ve done ok and we have what’s always supposed to be our best window coming up. We are still very much in the game to get a 30”+ winter. But I also disagree with some posts that seem to imply just eeking close to climo this season is “acceptable”.  @osfan24 had an accurate point wrt climo by enso. I gave the numbers. When I feel well enough to get to my computer I’ll post the chart but our snowfall is so heavily skewed towards Ninos that we need most of them to be big or our overall avg will collapse because we typically get well below avg in every Nina and neutral winter. But people complaining now are being premature.
 

 

I figured something was up when we didn't hear from ya  But seriously, hope you feel better, man. Tis the season to be germy, unfortunately...rest up!

1 minute ago, Wxdood said:

Honestly we need a bunch of rain to wash all the salt off the roads.  It is mind blowing how much they dumped with the last couple storms.  Very bad for our vehicles.  

I feel like they overdo it sometimes...the roads look like they need lotion!

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I think many of us, including myself, have selective memories of our winters where we live. We tend to remember the snowiest highlights of each winter, while memories of warm/rain with brown ground fade away. This effectively magnifies how much snow we think we ought to see here.

Before y’all come at me, I say again that I’m guilty of this too

Plus kids here got 10 full days of sledding. I’m sure they’ll have good memories of this period.

You are absolutely right. And this brought to mind another thing: These things look different from the vantage point of tracking. Here's what I mean: I only started to actively track in 2014 (in the midst of that active 3-year period of snow events). Prior to that, there was no knowledge of ridges and troughs, ehat was  a favorable period vs a torch (although obviously you knew when it was warm, lol), the various mechanisms in place. So in the minds eye, you're not gonna remember the ebbs and flows as much, because it was like..."Awesome, the TV met said snow!" but the lags in between are less memorable because you didn't really know what was going on and just went about your life, lol

So it is indeed possible to be born here, and yet start tracking and you still learn things about your climo. I think seeing the "why" helps you see things in a bit of a different way. After watching all the other enso states play out from a tracking vantage point...this is my first strong (but not ape super) Niño...so though I'm in my early 30s and have lived here all my life, I'm definitely still learning from THIS vantage point 

Ya know...I'm not sure I could just lurk on here...particularly not during a niño winter. I just want to be in the discussions. Like...I'm interested in this stuff and of course have a passion for snow. And who else to discuss this stuff with? There's literally no other place where a bunch of people feel the same about snow.

I'd like to think I was doing better...as I hadn't said anything terrible in the main thread. But once again, one bad post and a response to it that gets all manner of likes and thank yous--all a forum-wide indictment of one of a single bad post of mine. I've been working on managing my emotional outlook of all this, and I've been making progress....but dang it I just messed up again, lol Ah well...I won't be on here much if we get a nina next year, so I ain't going nowhere  (but I do have to pick my wounds for a little bit)

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Like one. But we were unlucky, and we still got a HECS, which we still could get! But that isn’t relevant to the point I am making, which has nothing to do with whether or not I think this season will end up great or a dud or anywhere in between.

My point was that I am confused that some posters seem to think reaching climo in a Nino is good and it’s not. If we swing and miss on Nino’s, or even if we end up reaching climo in them, your average seasonal snowfall is going to be basically cut in half. And yes, sometimes a Nino doesn’t work out and you get screwed. But you don’t want that becoming a pattern. So let’s say BWI averages 20 a year and reaches 20 this year. Some people will think that’s great. It’s actually pretty bad and if it continues, BWI’s real average is going to drop to like 10 inches a year. Might even be less than that. Congrats, you are now Charlotte!

2009-2010 was amazing. I’d love to see it again even though it was once in a lifetime. But we don’t need 2009-2010 to have a successful Nino. No one is saying we need 100 inches of snow. But do we need something like 2003? Yeah, we do.

Agree. You'd much rather have the door open for a chance through what is historically our best window for snow. In the moment, seeing the torch didn't feel great and I put a panic room post here. But @CAPE is right, though...in 14 days it COULD happen. We've done it before in small windows. 

But I also agree with you--we HAVE to get above average this year. More pressure than usual for that to happen, imo And to me...in order to get the above average totals some predicted, the need for a HECS or MECS goes up given the shorter window (nobody tell me about March please, lol) But again, we have done it before...it's not over just because of the next two weeks. All we can do is watch...

Whoops, looks like I messed up again. There goes all my progress here, lol Dang emotional post in the wrong place in the moment, smh

Sorry y'all, I'll get back on the wagon.

Ah well, there goes all my progress...I done messed up in the main thread again. Dang emotional post...smh

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Punting 20 days of winter in our prime is super fun!

Yeah that hurts...the cities will basically have two weeks to score again. And if we only START tracking on 8th? That leaves about 14 more days for a big one...ack.

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean PSU said that a pool of warmer than average water in Indonesia is causing the Hadley Cell to expand.

Ah, I didn't see that part (I've been turning site blocker on and off in disgust all afternoon, lol) Alright then...warm water in Indonesia...BOOOOO!

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Assuming the "Hadley cell jet steroid" hypothesis is correct (seems very plausible but years of research would be needed and not sure any PHD candidates are working on it), getting mad at the Hadley cell for Pac Puke is like force-feeding your kid caffeine and then getting mad when they act wild.

Not sure I follow, lol If the hypothesis is correct then yeah they're causing the problem are they not? Making them public snow enemy No. 1 (unless the elephant is ultimately causing them instead)

I move that from here on we call Hadleys Badleys...they don't deserve our respect, lol

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

No you’re right. The pac jet has been on roids lately. Ever since 2016. Best theory I’ve read is the expanded Hadley cell is compressing the jet and amplifying it.  So now when the jet extensions happen it’s not just warm it’s an ungodly torch across the whole continent.

BADley cells. That's what they are...BADley. I am growing to detest those wretched things! Boo. BOOOO Hadley...BOOOOOOOO!

Ya know what...way too much bad news about next month and our future snow climo in the LR thread...and it's quickly fouling up my good mood. I was hoping for a big snow next month, but I may have to just let that go...

I think I'm just gonna enjoy what my Ravens are doing right now! At least THEY aren't affected by Badley cells (yes I said BADley) and pac jets on roids....THEY are playing well