Maestrobjwa

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

I just send snow maps and say “it might do this, it might not, I’ll update later” and leave it at that haha but yes I agree completely. I have coworkers bash weather people all the time for being wrong and they don’t know I’m a weather nerd. Have to bite my tongue a lot 

Yeah I try to urge people to give forecasters some grace because trying to get it right is much more difficult than they know, that the atmosphere is complex, and that sometimes weather does whatever the heck it wants, lol Mets are using their expertise to make the best prediction possible!

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That's it. People are anxious.. need something to look at NOW and either validate their hopes or stress the fuck over.

Man you are in a zero craps to give mode these days aren't you? Lol

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

No idea why anyone here, let alone the NWS, would give 2 shits about the 12km NAM. Esp extrapolating lol. That model is damn near useless.

Do you think they were just talking about the energy that you can see through 60 hrs...and comparing that to the GFS at the same point?

4 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Retired military worked with the some of the elite. Now working doing what I do best and the money is great. Getting ready to retire a second time and have been ask to return for a couple days a week.

Thank you for your service, sir!

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What an awesome batch of overnight runs. To make things even better, I get to be on a panel at IMD today that moderate by Dr. Louis Uccellini. 

Wow the U of KU himself??? That is awesome!

1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said:

This accumulation distribution matches the January 22/23 1940 storm pretty closely. Richmond received 21" and DC got 15". I believe that is still the biggest storm on record for Richmond. 

No idea if any part of the pattern or storm evolution is also a match, but there is at least historical precedence for accumulations like this. 

1940? Well dang Baltimore must've gotten skunked then because BWI recorded 9.8 inches on the month, lol

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I could see this being one of those where the local mets go 4-8. Then up it to 6-10. Then up it again to 10-14. I used to love watching Bob Ryan constantly upping the totals. Always made me chuckle. He was the original DC snow weenie. 

That's what I remember from 2010. I mean every broadcast it kept going up and up and up...and my mom and I were like "HERE????? "

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looking at the individual EPS members (nice WxBell maps incoming) it's pretty clear the only reasonable cause for concern is suppression. Northern stream running out too far ahead of the southern stream (ULL slowing down) would be my specific concern with what we're seeing but hopefully we've got some room.

And basically that has to do with how that Baja low rejects, right? (Nervous about that part, lol)

Just now, bncho said:

I mean...that is indeed a hold! Just gotta stay level-headed (good luck with that, lol).

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

0z comparison?

1 minute ago, Alfoman said:

Was nice while it lasted GFS 

Can't get comfortable until we are sure the models are gonna get this part right 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

It is definitely holding back a little bit.

Don't start this mess, gfs lol

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Latest blend. I think we got us a solid signal across guidance for a major winter storm lol

Don't think we've seen that much pink on an NBM since it started, lol (when did it launch, btw?)

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro AI slight tick south, seems like we're starting to converge on a solution

Might just a little early to call that, imo. It is just early Tuesday! 

Just now, Jebman said:

That's a milkshake froth! It's even batter than Mammoth during a 4 foot Sierran Blizzard with 120 mph winds!

Visibility -5 miles!!! 

Ohhh no! That throw was bad bad--I don't follow college football much but decided to turn on the last bit of this (pluse the Ray and Ed connection to Miami). Man that's gotta hurt losing like that!

Just now, DDweatherman said:

We’re going to need more than that difference wise downstream to have the implications we need. It’s a positive; but it’s not much yet. 
 

I like the height improvement and tpv more than the s/w energy changes esrly

Hey any step is a good one with how stubborn it's been

Just now, bncho said:

It's almost an entire cave...

Big step in the right direction!

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

potential EE rule here....

EE?

12 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Wow ukmet ensembles definitely increased for 18z compared to 12z!!

I feel like uncle is gonna go ape again at 0z, lol

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nervous about what? There is virtually zero chance this misses your subforum. Just because you may not get the 48" you crave, please dont ruin it for the rest of the forum. These guys have waited an eternity for a forum-wide warning type event.

Now I am somewhat nervous about suppression too--like if the models were to tick even further south the next two cycles. I'm not sure what the "floor" of the south trend is here. Can't imagine it's to the point of a complete whiff (I hope)--but just hoping to stay in solid warning criteria. But a lot of moving parts still, I know.

11 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Like I said...to this day I can't take the term paulbearer seriously because of that dude--all I knew as a tyke was that it was him, lolol

19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yep. I think it does have a better NS come in afterwards though. As a slightly bantery side note I always dreamed of becoming one of the posters that you or some other respectable mets/posters would agree with so thanks! Made my day lmao 

This is your breakout season my friend--you are ascending 

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Still a very potent storm even for northern md

Yeah you just worry about more ticks south as we go along

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Hearing really good things about 18z EURO but can’t confirm it myself. Trust the people, though.

Other thread, lol