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Maestrobjwa

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Posts posted by Maestrobjwa

    Jan 19th Storm OBS Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

    He’s looking ahead to March instead of enjoying this storm lol

    I kinda feel bad for the dude...and everytime you try and talk some sense into him he just ignores it altogether, lol I guess if some people are intent on being miserable no matter what, ya can't really stop 'em...

    Jan 19th Storm OBS Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, jayyy said:


    Soooo… do we just ignore these because it’s so close to game time? Euro and NAM both spit out the same thing near Baltimore. NAMs jack is just more expansive. Hrrr too. Interesting to say the least.

    … the EE rule says game ON.

    Since the other minds are asleep, I can't defer to them, so...Hey, if the best global along with two mesos did it, maybe they're seeing something. We shall see!

    • Like 1

    Jan 19th Storm OBS Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

    29/17

    Really looking forward to this. We haven't had a good run of deep winter in years.

    Yes indeed. I don't think we've had snow on snow since before 2016 (at least not imby, anyway). Enjoying this!

    Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, psuhoffman said:

    Don't misunderstand me... I am still optimistic we get another snowy pattern from about Mid February into March.  I am unsure early Feb honestly.  Hopefully the next round maximizes potential a bit more than this last one.  It wasn't awful but we needed a little more out of a 3-4 week good longwave pattern.  

    But the point I was trying to make is lately anytime we get a bad longwave pattern it isn't just kinda warm, its a complete TORCH.  And even in a Nino when forcing is located where we want most of the winter we are still going to be unfavorable periods mixed in.  We are never going to have a wall to wall no hostile period at all winter.   So the excuse of "its not warming its that we are still recovering from the torch" is circular thinking and makes no sense to me.  We often wont have weeks to wait for a colder airmass to slowly carve its way back into our area after a bad pattern.  The fact that warm patterns torch the continent so bad that it takes weeks to recover and have a chance of snow is part of the same problem not an excuse.  

    But how about warmth at the beginning of met winter, though? Maybe I'm being too simplistic here, but...if it's December 1st and we've had a bit of a torch until late in the month, if there was never any cold air there in the first place...wouldn't it take from late Dec. to maybe last week to change the pattern (building cold in our source regions?)

    Or are you saying the source regions should've started out colder on Dec 1st and the weren't because of...

     

    Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    If the guidance is correct though...and we get a 1-2 week period like this before things recycle back to a good pattern...

    When this happens...

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t2m_c_anom-6421600.thumb.png.1b79efac305301738bc6a209b65029df.png

    Does that mean I am going to have to hear the "everything is fine" crew blame the torch we get late Jan/Early Feb for why its too warm when we get a couple perfect track rainstorms in February?  As if to snow now we need there to NEVER be a bad pattern at all for the entire winter because we need weeks to build cold as if that is somehow not part of the problem!  

    If, if, if.....like you told me yesterday, just let it play out, lol Hopefully it'll be different since we've already had cold now (unlike to start where there wasn't any cold anywhere in our source regions from the end of Nov). And I'm still wondering why not getting much snow on the front end of a niño is a red flag...unless previous less front ends of niños were less snowy (or none at all) for a different reason? :huh:

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