Maestrobjwa

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Lol, I have kids born in the 90’s. I feel ancient. 

Dang dude...I AM born in the 90s (exactly 90' actually). I thought you were younger than that!

Just now, pazzo83 said:

it's triggering lol

there was a time when even mentioning it was close to ban-worthy on these boards

The passage of time and something worse that happened to take it's place at the top of the infamy list--helped to mitigate the ban-worthiness, lol

Just now, ravensrule said:

Jeez you’re young. 

My thoughts exactly, lol He seems like an old soul!

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Stop worrying about rain snow lines at this range. Pattern is supportive of a winter storm that’s all that matters at this range. Just for fun







.

True. And bro can ya just tell us what ya meant by March 2001? Lol I see that wasn't a ton in Philly if that's where you are.

Just now, Ji said:

March 2001 lol?

I have no idea if he was joking or not.

Just now, Heisy said:

March 2001


.

I'm gonna guess that was good for y'all up there, lol I don't think it was anything of note down here.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

The rain/snow line as depicted doesn’t work for me here. Toss

That's a psu logbook run. Definitely toss!

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

The big ones lock in early… we say for the 3rd time this year gearing up for what we’ll find out is a 3-5” snowstorm 10 days later 

Not the same setup. This is starting to look like either all boom or nothing, lol

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs up to no good. Let’s see where it goes

It's definitely started making (good) trouble in the neighborhood.

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But why is your bar a HECS?  Those are super rare. If we get a 6-12” snowstorm across the area that’s a win. 

It's not, actually. But it's certainly higher than the 3-5" fringe events we have been getting in our respective yards! And 6-12" sounds pretty nice right about now. But like you I do want a big dog since it's been so long, and because of the warning level snow drought in my area (and even yours in some cases).

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Why do you keep talking about March 2018 as a fail?  It gave us one of our biggest snowstorms since 2016!  

generally 4-8” across the population corridor with 8+ north of 70!  And had it been a couple weeks earlier that storm would have been 12+ across the whole area. 
 

That block didn’t develop until the very end of Feb.  The storm hit 20 days later after a few misses. This block is developing around Feb 15 so if the same progression repeated that storm would be March 5 and a 10-20” snow across our area!  
 

Largely because that one storm where the GL low ruined it is what sticks out in my mind the most. And wasn't that the same month we had thar windstorm while the storm clobbered NE? I know we got some nickle and dimes...and that Spring storm was rather entertaining--so you're right that wasn't a complete fail. But the big one we missed is I guess just annoyed me that much, lol

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern is locked and loaded. But now it’s time to cash it into snow on the ground. 

Do you think this is better than the blocking that we had (too late, lol) in March 2018? I ask because...seeing as only one HECS occurred in a Nina, I'm wondering whether the pattern we have setting up next week would be subject to the same stuff that messed things up in 2018. How similar/different would thos be compared to 2018?

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately wave 2 is coming in line with euro less snow so the bust option for northern MD if a south north split seems very likely. I’ve shifted my focus back to the long range. 

Same. I've been out on this one since yesterday. I'm big dog chasing now--because obviously these kind of waves just don't do it even in Baltimore right now.

I hope the rest of you enjoy your snow!

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

It could be the rapid SST warming near Japan and acceleration of the Pacific Jet leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream tracks since 18-19.

 

 

Hey Bluewave--I'm a visitor to thus forum, but, as someone in Baltimore who's been fringed by southern sliders since 2018-19 (eith Jan 2019 being the first time I remember that starting) your theory caught my attention. Areas in MD JUST south of me have done better in those kind of slightly suppressed systems, I've been wondering if this has just been dumb luck or whether something had actually changed!

So how do you think this would be a cause of that rather unusual theme (as ordinarily the northern half of the MA sub does better than the southern half).

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

It could be the rapid SST warming near Japan and acceleration of the Pacific Jet leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream tracks since 18-19.

 

 

Hey Bluewave--I'm a visitor to thus forum, but, as someone in Baltimore who's been fringed by southern sliders since 2018-19 (eith Jan 2019 being the first time I remember that starting) your theory caught my attention. Areas in MD JUST south of me have done better in those kind of slightly suppressed systems, I've been wondering if this has just been dumb luck or whether something had actually changed!

So how do you think this would be a cause of that rather unusual theme (as ordinarily the northern half of the MA sub does better than the souther half).

1 minute ago, stormy said:

At 6 am the NWS was woefully deficient with their WSW giving my area only 4 - 6 inches.

I was and am at 6 - 12.

At 3 pm, NWS woke up and raised expectations for Augusta to 5 - 10.

I think you meant to put this in the other thread.

6 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said:

before the Feb 11-12 thread was shut down, there was an undercurrent or perhaps just plain current of "this is going to be a bust."  Now I am stressed. That is my only observation, and that it is sunny out. 

Don't stress over it. In fact now that we're right up on it I'd suggest stepping away from the thread and letting whatever falls fall! That's certainly what I'm thinking about doing, lol

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

We are in rare air for around here: snow on our doorsteps and another storm on the tracker. 

AND...during a February in a nina, lol

31 minutes ago, mappy said:

I get more precip from part 2 on Wednesday than tomorrow lol. 

At least you all have that advantage up there. I'm to south for wave 2 probably, lol

P.S. Currently chowing down the Lamb ball dish at the Cava in Timonium  Now, as someone new to eating things with more green in them...I found this to be pretty good!  Now to see if it keeps me satisfied until dinner, lol

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z NAM Kuchera through 48

12z NAM 10:1 though 48

 

So basically the NAM is overdone as usual? Lol

6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Sure but I'm talking far NE crew I'm more sympathetic to the swamp dwellers around Baltimore etc. 

Who you callin' swamp dweller ya rabid anti-swampite?  Ironically I tease a cousin of mine who lives down in St. Mary's county as being in the swamp...but yet the last 8 years you'd think it was the opposite snow wise!

1 minute ago, mappy said:

<1 for me just a couple winters ago. 

That winter I think that was most of us, lol 22-23, I think I got 0.2...and it fell at like 4 am when nobody was awake to see it, haha Had to laugh at that masterful troll job! That was when I first learned to detach if the winter ever got like that!

Just now, H2O said:

I have had winters with less than 3” total

We all have given the overall tough stretch of the last 9 years before this year. But in the years where at least one decent event have happened? (2019, 2022, this year) You all have outsnowed my yard.

7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Serious question for the far NE crew the last 8 winters where you have been saying you have been screwed. Have your overall snow totals for those winters been more or less than those to the south? Are you just upset about not getting warning level snow or have you truly been getting outsnowed  every winter by Wes and H2O etc. ?

You could extend this for the crew from Baltimore city/central MD. H20, Wes, Randy, etc. have gotten more snow than both us and the NE crew since Jan 2019.

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

Weeeeeeeee

Tuesday

Snow likely after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow. Low around 28. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Well at least you all can get something out of the second batch. I'm probably too south to get that (and may be too north to get to warning level from the first batch, lol). This is seriously ridiculous...screw it I'm big dog hunting from now until this streak ends. These moderate snows we both have been getting the short end of the stick for 6 years. But if we can somehow score a big dog? I like our chances 

Meanwhile back to practicing being grateful for the snow that does fall, lol