Maestrobjwa

Just now, Cobalt said:

Feb 26-27 2004 says hi

 

Was just about to mention that (as I just Googled, lol). With as far south as things pressed last month, I don't put anything past it.

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'm not worried.  North Carolina isn't going to get a 2ft snowstorm in late February. 

I mean...we didn't think NO was gonna get a 8" snowfall either, lol Weird things happen! I mean yeah it's not the most probable but weather is weather...

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Where did the Icon end up? Or does it not run all the way through at 18z?

Only runs to 120 at 6z and 18z

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

I have one stubborn pile that is shaded more than it’s not from the mid Jan snow that’s still hanging tough. It’s near our cars so it was a growing pile every time we shoveled lol 

I believed that's called pile stuffing and that is not allowed for snowpack stats 

Just now, stormtracker said:

yup. Only uses 10:1 

So basically the only advantage SV has is the speed? Lol

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But it's 150+ hours out tho.  I def wouldn't hand wring at this stage, especially with the models all over the place

Indeed. That's the logical thing to do...but ya know, feelings and their lack of said logic .

But seriously: It's a pretty good place to be at 150+ and nothing is showing a complete miss (waiting on the Euro, of course).

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not sure the majority of us are.  At least not me.  I just read a model.   But yeah, there are a few here doing this and it's crazy this far out.

You gotta remember the reason why, though. The hand wringing is coming from those in the screw zone...not necessarily because the outcome of that run is believed, but just seeing the image can make your eye twitch...

11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I will be honest I did not think it had a chance at getting even close to organized. 

It was kinda late doing it similar to the ICON (just not nearly as good of a result, obviously)

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Some of that is this Saturday 

How's that? It's gonna be mostly rain isn't it?

Just now, Heisy said:

Gfs didn’t phase the N stream in and it still produced what it did. That’s a great sign.


CMC looks more like the euro and other models with that..




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Was the "kicker" a little less of a problem this run?

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

No one wanted to post ICON clown maps? I'll give ya a dollar 

Previous page, lol

10 minutes ago, Scraff said:

And only 5” for @Maestrobjwa Bummer. 

Some people just wake up and choose to watch things burn, lolol

3 hours ago, Ji said:

What are you doing here?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

Well I often bounce around to various forums when there's a potential threat thst we both are tracking.. I guess it would've been better to quote it and put it in our forum, but...does it matter?

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is very amplified. what a look

btw, that isn’t a SE ridge linking with the -NAO… those are height rises downstream from the amping vort

Thank you for explaining that--was gonna ask in the other thread but didn't wanna sound even more amateurish, lol Great see a more amped solution!

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry @Maestrobjwa it’s only 11.6” 

I'm not sure what you're doing here, man...I never said it HAD to be 12"+. However, of course...this run is awesome! But uh...why the trolling?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but...the Canadian had a bit of a phase, correct? I think that may be the way we can get a win of some sort (Someone may have said that earlier as well).

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Low develops off the coast.. 

Like Heisy said...that dang nina-driven kicker. Without a phase at the right time this has advisory written all over it. But it is day 8 so it's still early...

@psuhoffman I just thought about something...if you've said there's only been 20 12"+ in our history, how crazy is it that 10 of those have come in the last 32 years? We literally got one every 3-4 years...so I guess that must've been a heater! I will say, being someone born in 1990, my entire working memory through 2016 was getting one of those storms every 3-4 years, lol So it's a slightly skewed perspective that has made the last 9 years feel more unusual. But you're absolutely right--it is rare historicallyrics! Just more common for 23 years 

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Do you realize Baltimore has only had 20 12"+ stormstorms EVERY...in over 135 years of records...  We sometimes go decades without one.  Anything that rare takes a lot more than just a very good pattern...it also takes a whole lot of luck.  On top of that a large percentage of them have come in Nino years...making it even less likely in a nina, again no matter how good the pattern is. 

I have not changed my opinion of the pattern...but if we get a 6-10" snowstorm that is a win.  If we get an 8" and 4" snow during the period...that is a win.  We can't undo the past...if you are expecting this period to make up for the last 8 years or all the snow we got fringed with this winter...you are setting yourself up for disapointment.  I said its a very favorable pattern and we have a good chance at snowstorms and I still feel that way, I never said I think we will get a HECS.  

I don't know why you think I think this...I don't. I was only talking about the next threat specifically, and getting clarity on exactly what you meant. And I don't believe that 6-10" is a fail. Now, would I like this pattern to break the 6"+ drought? Absolutely! Don't need a MECS to do that, lol 6" is my bar from now until I finally get that from a storm again 

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I can two years ago when we got 1.6" of snow for the entire winter. 

Wow! That's 8x more than I got, lol

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I can’t remember a more frustrating winter

Remember when I asked you if you were ever grateful for snow when you got it? This is why I asked that. We've been nearly shutout twice in the last 5 years. Yet somehow this winter is more frustrating to you than either one of those?

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think we get a 12”+ event. That’s asking a lot in a Nina even in a good pattern. But I think there is a “decent” chance we can pull off a more widespread 6-10 type storm. I think there is a good chance we can get a 3-6 type deal or some combo of multiple events in those ranges. 

So are you kinda backing off your expectations of the pattern? Or before were you just saying that the pattern just looked like that, not that you thought it had 12+" potential in the first place?

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Stupid kicker ruining any chance at this being a major event


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Was the "kicker" present on the 12z GFS too?

Just now, stormtracker said:

See yinz at 0z

 You already saw 12z euro?

7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Not every day we get to enjoy the 12z euro, 18z gfs, and 18z euro in the span of just over an hour. 

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