Maestrobjwa

Was thinking about thos earlier...how likely are weak ninas to double dip?

Low/mid 50s is what is considered a "torch" for the winter time, though. But perhaps this time around we're looking at something in the 40s neighborhood or lower.

Things like that always weaken the resolve to not look, lol

So the CEO shooter was from Towson? Dang

Lol Hey could ya blame me? But nah not obsessively--but I have been hoping that one of these years it would finally start to cool off...and of course we're hoping that -PDO will finally relent! (I'm unclear on how the two are connected if someone could chime in on that. I just know that the warm pool has been a part of said pain in the butt).

That December didn't still average warm? I seem to remember just that one arctic Christmad weekend then warm again...

A glimmer of hope for what? Wed/Thurs? Well I've learned to ignore supposed backend snow scenarios as they don't usually work here. But...here's a glimmer of hope for the bigger picture that was shared in the general thread Cool the pool! Cool the pool!

Recency bias fron 2022-23? Lol But that seemed extreme even by nina standards.

Why do we do this every year tho? It's fantasy range...so why ride every z? Lol

Darn...I'd wish it was more than temporary (I think we all do, lol) Been hearing warm pool everyday for 8 years, smh Is it a cyclical thing?

PAUSE...So you're telling me the relentless -PDO of the last 8-9 is indeed finally weakening?

That is why just some periods of sustained cold like we had this week are my low LOW bar. I mean the difficulty of getting even that the last 8-9 years has been insane. Just let it FEEL like winter please, at the very least! And yes the "at the end of the run" false hope analysis...I find that when the overall pattern is doing something not favorable, better not to pay said end of the run much attention unless you see the desired change move up in time. Otherwise it's just wishing upon an hour 384 model run, lol

This week was cold as advertised, though, wasn't it?

Basically someone grumpily opinionated, lol

I wish folks would just not respond to him. Just don't feed whatever toxicity he's got going on, y'all.

The ficticious NYE storm...lol

Dang they had the Fall torch too? It just had to be a perfect match didn't it For all the chaos in weather, this seems kinda set in stone. I know the scientific folks will say ya don't know, but I mean...if it's never been different on the analogs...

I'd like us just once to have a good analog. Feels like every year now the top analogs are crappy...but then again when you're in a -PDO cycle how many good ones actually exist? Lol P.S. Folks are annoyed by my lols but it's in place of the crying laughing emoji I use often that's not available on here.

But the analogs say SER through and through...that would hardly be variability, would it? I know analogs technically don't HAVE to mean set in stone, but what indicates that more variability would be there?

But why are we doing pbp for something 9-10 days away?

What are you tracking, exactly?

I cannot help but see the overlap between this and sports fandom!

But why tho? If it doesn't work out just step away. Best thing I coulda done in 22-23. If it were to become clear that the pattern wasn't working, why go model run to model run? Don't torture yourself. Now of course, right now we're still trying to get the pulse of what this winter will be, so watching larger scale features and tendencies still has value for weenieism, lol But y'all, I'm telling ya...if the crappy sets in, block this and all model sites from your phone. Best way to deal with it. The less exposed you are to it, the better!

2000-2016 were down? Wow it certainly didn't feel down with all the memorable snows we got during that time even with all the usual lulls in between. Is this the proverbial "less snow but more of it coming at one time" kind of thing? And hang on...are we talking 40 years between then and 1960? Huh...do we have any periods prior to 1960 to compare to? I'm wondering if the 60s were just an anomaly...no decade before then ever snowed like that around here.

I'm probably way outta of pocket for saying this, and it may be a blatantly obvious answer, but...do you prefer cold weather or warm weather?