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Maestrobjwa

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  1. Maestrobjwa
    HM also seems to think the Modoki could be real this time: http://Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) Tweeted: modoki https://t.co/9WcA03uHhe https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1181381284276441097?s=17
  2. Maestrobjwa
    And as I asked in the Twitter thread...is the snow cover even a legit factor that influences us? Feels like it's been bandied about the last few years...but to little result, lol
  3. Maestrobjwa
    Not sure how much you can count 1941/42...The only reason for those 21 inches is because of that highly anomalous Palm Sunday blizzard. Don't want to have to rely on a redux of that! (and 1930/31...to have that tiny amount of snow to only get 10 in march doesn't seem worth the wait) So overall...that would be a recipe for mediocrity...("very backloaded" is tough to bet on...let's hope that's not the case!)
  4. Maestrobjwa
    Admittedly...I'm a visitor to this forum and actually live in the Mid-ATL (but during winter "preseason", I kinda mill around the other EC forums since the discussion is more generally applicable, lol)--so not as familiar with sne climo! I had assumed that since nor'easters "crawl" up the coast, I thought the prospect of having more fast flow in the future meant things just kinda slip by (but I am a novice, so feel free to correct me)
  5. Maestrobjwa
    And getting back to this...I have to wonder whether this means nor'easters would eventually go extinct? (Man, I hope not). I mean...does fast flow mean no coastal? (I may be oversimplifying this)
  6. Maestrobjwa
    Well shoot...we're gonna have to deal with the fast flow crap again? Kinda helped to screw up the winter on the east coast in general (with just mild to middling events at best). The heck has been causing this "fast flow"?
  7. Maestrobjwa
    Not the most logical approach...man, have you studied our history? Like going all the way back? Mid-Jan thru late Feb are the time the winter is more likely judged (and btw...if you insist on setting a "deadline" for having an event on the horizon...ya may want to extend that to at least January 15th. Remember that we don't usually get warning level events between Christmas and the second week of January, lol)
  8. Maestrobjwa
    But wait...then how do we know what kind of ENSO we're in? (And are we reaching a point where we can't rely on history/analogs as much? And if we can't...how do ya make predictions? I'm particularly thinking about last year and how a lot of people got it wrong...partly because a weak El Niño was showing yet didn't behave like one. Are we entering uncharted weather territory overall due to the changing climate? If so...woe to the folks trying to make accurate predictions, lol
  9. Maestrobjwa
    Can anybody point to a reliable source for ENSO history? (I'm looking to compare snowfall during neutral winters for my region, lol)
  10. Maestrobjwa
    My apologies...It seemed that some thought it the setup favored more activity getting closer to the coast. Could've misread that, though...sorry for derailing the thread.
  11. Maestrobjwa
    So now we have the polar opposite conditions from this time last year...lol So would we see earlier foliage as opposed to later?
  12. Maestrobjwa
    Uh-oh...smh I don't understand how we came to this. That even WEATHER has been poisoned by the divisiveness that has come with this presidency! I mean look, he messed up...but because of his otherworldly level of narcissism, he could not let it go (which led to the media not letting it go) because he can't stand looking bad even in the littlest thing. Mercy...we can't have this with weather warnings--lest people be less likely to react to a real threat!
  13. Maestrobjwa
    Lol
  14. Maestrobjwa
    Eric Webb found some humor in the situation...lol
  15. Maestrobjwa
    Maybe I might be a bit biased for my own region...lol Where I am that blend ain't the greatest (more in the "okay" category like last winter!)
  16. Maestrobjwa
    Except we really don't know where it's gonna hit yet...so ya might wanna hold off on that, Analogon! (gonna start calling ya that because I've seen somebody dissect analogues to the minute detail you do! )
  17. Maestrobjwa
    Oh stop...Man, you lucky stormtracker isn't in here...you know what's he'd tell you to do, lol
  18. Maestrobjwa
    I hope not...Could you clarify what you meant by "this isn't new"? Certainly the PAC hasn't been hostile all decade, right?
  19. Maestrobjwa
    Now was the cloud debris a result of those storms out there in TN or was it something else?
  20. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah I don't get that...did they not factor in cloudy skies in the forecast yesterday? Or were they simply basing it on what it was doing in Tennessee and such?
  21. Maestrobjwa
    That's why I don't understand why they enhanced the risk knowing the clouds could reduce the chances!
  22. Maestrobjwa
    I didn't think that we usually saw that around here (I was just asking a little while ago about why we don't see "enhanced" that often!)
  23. Maestrobjwa
    True...And just the winter forecasts in general done by even the more knowledgeable and experienced last winter...fell hard! And it was like "Uhh, we don't know why it's doing what it's doing", lol Last winter seemed to baffle more forecasters than usual (but perhaps I'm just imagining it!)
  24. Maestrobjwa
    Harder??? I mean my goodness...last winter, I don't think anybody got it right (at least not for the northeastern part of the country). I mean it didn't do what anybody thought it would...So if this winter is gonna be even harder to predict, then just throw predicitons out the window, lol
  25. Maestrobjwa
    I mean...how long is "awhile"? We had a neutral in 2014-15 didn't we?
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