Maestrobjwa

We did? What was it, a few flurries or a dusting? Lol

Hey @Bob Chill (or somebody else who may know)...I'm trying to remember...was the awful Dec 2010 nina-induced miss the last time we didn't have to deal with a hostile pac to end the month?

And again, why does it keep going bad in mid/late December every single year? Smh Can we just assume it'll do that every mid/late December from here on?

Yeah what's up with the 18z runs often appearing to look "better" anyway? Why does that happen?

Yeah, yeah I gotcha...I just don't wanna see that alleged 10% get even lower for whatever reason. There's a reason we only get 2 footers every 6-7 years and 1 footers every 3-4 years (that second one I'm starting to hang my hat on...no matter what weather chaos has ensued, that's repeated itself, lol) Overall...it's like, you know how hard it can be to get snow here. You kinda expect it...but it still sucks when it misses even if you could see it coming.

Can I vent about the hostile pac in here? Lol Seriously, of all the atmospheric obstacles we've had since 2016, I think that has frustrated me the most. Why can't it just get right???? (this ain't no possible climate change crap is it? If so, we're gonna have problems) crap Dang you PAC ...DANG YOU!

But we were never in the game for anything more than a thump o front end mix, right? Lol

Man just the thought of that happening two years in a row...*rips hair out* Thankfully it's a far away fantasy as of now, lol

Well, one thing we can bet on around here...it absolutely will not snow significantly (like more than a couple inches) the day after Christmas...nor the rest of the days until mid-January, lol It's a strange quirk, really...January 9th was the earliest--and that was the highly anomalous 1995/96 winter. But other wise? All others fell between Jan 14th and February 20th...So I never look for anything just after Christmas, or New Year's--always tends to fail the most during that period for whatever reason!

Out of the question, lol Tok many Baltimore times! (no matter how much I love snow!) But I wouldn't rule out 7-10 miles north

Seems to still be a mix of snow and rain...about 50/50

Must be that close...I think I'm starting to hear some ping-ping outside

But IF we are to run into PAC trouble, gotta wonder if this could be our last window for awhile (which, again, wouldn't be much different from what we've seen the last several years...the time between Christmas and mid January has become a null-zone, lol)

Let's say that this issue does indeed happen...do you think we recover by prime climo time (that is, Jan 15th on), or does it even cut into that?

I think that's Iso's real name.

For me, a shortened climo window is if something would cut into the Jan 15th-February 20th prime climo window. But if something just pushes things down the road to mid-January...that would be pretty much normal, lol

Oof...What is it with that? That would be a carbon copy of last winter! (where even you had a very slight meltdown at the end of the month due to the pac air, lol) Why does this keep repeating itself? Now, personally...I never expect any snow events between Christmas and mid-January (because it literally never happens down here for whatever reason...only exception was the Blizzard of 96! And I think that was linked to the La nina somehow). So, if we get into a shutout pattern, I could bear it...as long as it doesn't extend past that...because then you're cutting into prime climo with that crap!

And even in the blockbuster 2009-10 year...didn't it warm up by Christmas? (I remember a mildish rain washing away most of the snow, lol)

I wish we could have an unwritten rule about not mentioning the srefs, lol (but seriously what purpose do those things serve?)

I see...so if a winter was gonna be warmer, add in the minimum and we get average. Cold + minimum=below average...that's interesting! Now...wonder what bearing that has on snowfall totals? (I'd like to see this expanded to explore that relationship). And what happens with those teleconnections (like the AO, NAO, etc) While this says that colder winters come just AFTER the minimum, the snowier winters seem to be more split between just before minimum (1995/96) and just after (2009/10). So now the question is...where will things fall for this winter? Lol And since I'm in weather streaks mode...I will mention that we have cashed in on the last three minimums (starting with 1986/87). Now before that the results were a little more varied (but still more cash-ins than misses near solar minimums!

Ohhh yes...I'm more or less aware of some of those from previous decades (especially the 70s--I'm guessing those were the 8 years without a storm? Lol) Which is why I only emphasized the last 26 years...Just talking about the current streak we're on, that's all (since that's what is current and has been current). Of course that doesn't, with any certainty mean it'll continue, but at least for now...streak is unbroken Random flukes, I suppose! (now I will be laughing if we do get a foot this year, though...lol But trust me, my expectations are about as neutral as the ENSO state right now)

Totally get that from a statistical view...just something kinda fluky that doesn't have an explanation. (now it will be funny if we do indeed get a foot at one point this winter, lol)

Oh of course...so it could mean nothing at all. Just a current streak in a small 26 year window that hasn't yet been broken. (now I'm a streak guy, and when something is current, I'll put just a few coins of hope in it until it breaks, lol) Could always be broken anytime! (And of course WDI is just a joking term, lol)

Alright mods, this is a WDI (we're due index) post, so if this is a bit much feel free to move to banter: I've always bee intrigued by a strange trend: By the BWI numbers...Since 1993, we have never gone more than 4 years without getting at least one snowstorm that gives us a foot (so usually every 3-4 years!) This winter will mark 4 years since 2016...Trends can always be broken, of course...but until it's broken, I'll put a little hope in it! (Note: Again, this is based stricly on BWI records...obviously some folks got a foot last year...but BWI didn't, lol) (2 footer snowstorms have a similar, but longer trend: it's always every 6-7 years. 2016 was 6 years from 2010...wonder if that means we get another in 2022 or 2023? Lol)

Looks like we're on the back edge of it...but it feels like it's moving so...SLOW