Maestrobjwa

HP holds on a bit longer on the 18z...but nevertheless... Man, I hope this thing can be saved...because seeing a big slug moisture bomb coming right at us (as opposed to all those dang cutters we've been getting), and to not get anything out of it is gonna sting a bit. All that QPF!!

FWIW? It's worth nothing! Boo!! Salt in the wound, dude...lol

So now how did he do that, and what did he look at? Whatever it is...it's probably more reliable than all LR guidance, lol

Who is that?

Perhaps...but just to clarify, when I label a year "bad" I'm speaking primarily of below average (which by BWI standards anything below 20" +/- 2 inches). I just think there has indeed been a historical trend. Just like we've gotten a snowfall of at least a foot every 3-4 years since 1996...which would also mean we're due. Feels like some (not all) of our weather history likes to repeat themselves (like the 70 degree Christmases in strong El Niños led to a big snowfall that winter 3 times--including 2016). Also about to repeat itself unless this winter turns around? Winters that follow very wet years (above like 50 inches of rain) had below average snowfall. So there are trends...not caused by anything in particular (and perhaps some are coincidences--who knows?)

Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year Dude that's the entire meteorological community this winter...lol Even the most brilliant! This winter tore pretty much everybody a new rear end!

Only thing that will make this feel any better (barring a turnaround, of course is this: Next winter? We are due. Our history has more instances of 3 consecutive below average winters followed by above average winters than prolonged snow droughts that last longer than that (only twice since 1980 did we have more than 3 in a row. And even throughout all weathe records, it may have happened three or four times since 1883/84.)

He's a real person. Just seems to have a few issues...

So it was already a tough go before...but now that it's slower? Yikes...Are we already at the point of no return? Lol

Was the LR constantly wrong (except in the positive direction) back then too? It's not the early winter calls that bother me most...but the weeklies, and even patterns two weeks out that mostly flopped. And again...was the met community in general as baffled by that winter as they seem to be by this one?

That's the whole problem...we ain't got nothin' to beat it back with! I mean...are we already out of time for a save, here? (since it already looks this bad with the se ridge)

And that has been the most frustrating part of this winter up to this point: everybody is baffled and it absolutely sucks. How can we have even reasonable confidence in LR forecasting (even 2 weeks or sooner) going forward? Been absolutely useless this year--I want some answers (even if they come later after the season is over)

I'm not sure all the negative posts are about bringing other people down...just a certain mishandling of emotions. Disappointment is probably easier to handle for those who have been doing this longer. But for others (myself included)...it's a process, lol I know I've also had legit comments/questions about the modeling...but sometimes the disappointment leaks out and gets all mixed up in there. It's just this winter (and the last two)... just very little satisfaction. And it kinda builds the longer we go. All that to say...some of us gotta do better with how we handle the disappointment. Feel like there oughta be "the psychology of the snow lover" thread

Yeah no choice now...Some of the forum still hasn't hit average (or even median)...it's gonna have to be something at least somewhat substantial to close the gap--and nickel and dime doesn't usually work in March, lol

Ruh-roh...lol That model has no common sense! I mean, are they really gonna put it out there like it is now? How will it be anymore reliable?

For the cities it's only been a couple of those times (and last year doesn't count, lol 3 inches ain't a warning). Now higher elevations? Sure!

I guess I have a bit of consistency bias...that nothing has worked out all winter--and that a strong finish in March is just hard to believe. Also, we don't get a lot of warning level snow here in the last week of Feb. There are some scattered occurrences, but they are rare! And we know the story on March snow...sometimes, but harder to come by. I could be very wrong about this, of course...I just don't like the idea of having to rely on March to save winter in Central MD.

Oh heck no...I do NOT believe it. You'd think it would be a cutter by the time we get to that date, smh I'm almost convinced next week is our last chance for warning level snow (and even that hasn't trended positively today)

Hope something shows up in the medium range that can save this thing enough to NOT be as much of a mix...time to root for that 50/50! (Now, how long before we have to take such a development off the table?)

With it being 60 the day before, I do wonder about accumulations, though...But we need a shift north--right now we've only got about 11 inches on the year. And with next week's system not seeming to get any colder atm...we may need every inch we can get!!

Didn't you get the memo? We don't believe in Day 9+ anymore!

@North Balti Zen, @BaltimoreWxGuy, @nw baltimore wx Here we go again...lol Now we oughta get this further north this time, though (we just don't wanna see any south trends!)

Seeing as it could end up being our last shot (I no l trust long range "looks"), we may not have much of a choice! Yes, if it ends up being moderate, it may indeed be disappointing (particularly for those us 10 inches below average). But, what if that's our last shot?...Gotta track it all the way through!

Oh come now...ya got a foot last month! The ones with the true hurt would be central MD if it misses us...#forumdivider (And this is why we need next week to work out...lol But since wave 1 and 2 are right in front of us, that's the most tangible thing we got right now!)

Troll...lol I haven't given up on any of these...just haven't been impressed on the top end if these. Would be okay if we can get 3-5" on Saturday!