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Everything posted by mappy
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they do if its a big event that's been modeled for days. something like today, if there was anyone out chasing, it would have been locals only.
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Ha, fair enough. Happy delay to your kids!
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does howard county not split like baltimore county does? BaltCo has the Hereford Zone, then the southern part and my kid could have a day off while the southern half of the county goes to school.
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quarter inch or more. I could see places under the winter storm watch going ice storm warning by tomorrow
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LWX 4am discussion .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Clouds will be thickening Wednesday morning in advance of storm system developing over the TN River Valley and southern mid- Atlantic. Overrunning precip is expected to move into the central Shenandoah Valley and central VA Wed afternoon. With very high 850- 700 mb thicknesses, main p-type through Thu is expected to be frza west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, fzra to rain east of Blue Ridge and I-95, and mainly rain along and east of I-95. This is going to be a very heavy precip event with even the "driest" top three ensemble members from the EPS showing an inch or more of liquid and median values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches. The source of cold air is likely too far north (northern Quebec or Newfoundland) to keep the cold air in place for a long period of time, however, in-situ damming from evaporational cooling will likely help strengthen the wedge. Given the amount of precip expected, there is the potential for signifcant icing to occur across the higher elevs and deeper valleys in eastern WV and western MD. For this reason, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for areas west of the Blue Ridge and Skyline Drive with likelihood of Ice Storm Warnings needed by Wed morning. The storm system will be crossing the area late Thu night with steady precip ending, but some wrap around rain/showers and mountain snow showers lingering into Fri. There is also the potential for strong winds across the mountains Thu that will have additional impacts on trees and powerlines with ice accretion and those in the mountain areas should be prepared for extended power outages and road closures.
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LWX dropped those 1-2 snow totals, <1 for most
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Winter storm watch for places west of Winchester/Martinsburg/Hagerstown, mostly for the ice ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations in excess of one quarter of an inch possible.
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^ gross. That would be up there with the early February 2014 event (before the bigger snow mid month). Picked up .3” zr from that one and lost power for a day plus.
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It wouldn’t be a Christmas tradition if it’s not 60-70°
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Glad you’re feeling better! Paxlovid helped us too.
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Yup, gfs and euro soundings show that.
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18z gfs would be ugly for places that stay frozen. Gross. I am a fan of LWX’s first call map. It’s reasonable given the setup.
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Thanks for stopping in and offering your thoughts @MillvilleWx! I know how these usually are IMBY -- I will maybe see snow, but sleet/zr for a little bit before the mid-levels get warm. Despite being north and west of 95, I'm still just close enough to the bay that those mid-levels warm quickly. edit to add: I anticipate a 2hr delay for school
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this is why i dont pay attention to long range stuff. too many ups and downs.
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@WesternFringe
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yeah, I think it's going to be a messy Thursday morning for those of us in the northern tier. You probably more so than me, I tend to warm at the mid-levels faster than Westminster.
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I hate sleet, but something wintry would be nice.
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lol didn't snow yesterday morning if you don't count the snow at like 1am
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Had a brief sneet shower around 8am when I took the kid to school
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from LWX's 4am discussion - mix bag for most before the flip to a cold rain. places out west are probably in for a much longer icy event. Warm advection precipitation starts to reach areas along I-64 and back toward Augusta and Highland counties by the afternoon hours. Strong ascent atop the seasonably cold air mass will make for a messy winter precipitation scenario by the evening into overnight hours. A bulk of the initial activity falls on Wednesday night with 925-850 mb temperatures rising above freezing. Given sub-freezing air likely holding on at the ground, a number of spots will see a freezing rain/sleet mixture, particularly off to the west of I-95. It remains to be seen if conditions are cold enough within the urban sprawl. Significant icing is possible across the Shenandoah Valley, Alleghenies, Blue Ridge, and their mountain valleys. However, a great deal of uncertainty plagues the forecast which will help dictate the timing and precipitation types/overall intensity. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... There remains subtle spread and inherent fluctuations between different global guidance on a run to run basis. Expect fluctuations in model guidance to continue, with guidance continuing to narrow down the potential outcomes of storm track, intensity, and wintry precip duration as the ULL trough/energy associated with this storm becomes better sampled over the Pacific NW. Ensemble guidance continues to support an ULL moving through the northern Ohio Valley early Thursday and eventually stalling into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday before eventually shearing out by Sunday. How far south the ULL tracks in the Ohio Valley in turn will influence where/when a coastal low develops in the vicinity of the Mid Atlantic in this Miller B setup. Confidence continues to increase in a prolonged wintry event ongoing to start the long term at 12Z Thursday. Given the anomalous high pressure north of the region and surface ridge extending down the spine of the Appalachians, wintry precipitation (all types) is likely across the entire area Thursday morning. Given the forecast 850/925 mb temps, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain area all a possible. Areas east of the Blue Ridge will change to all rain quicker. Those locations west of the Blue Ridge, especially sheltered valleys prone to hold onto the cold air longer, will see a mixture of wintry precip through the day on Thursday into Thursday night and possible Friday. Travel impacts are becoming increasingly likely during this timeframe. As the ULL moves offshore, there is the potential for a period of upslope snow as several vorticity maxes move over the Appalachians, starting Friday into Saturday/Saturday night. This will be highly dependent on the aforementioned system and ULL pattern. Strong winds are possible areawide on the backside of the low. Temps will be below normal behind the system with high presure building in late Sunday.
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Thanks for starting a thread! Let’s try to limit banter, especially during model runs.
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Hi friend! It was yesterday and wonderful, she was amazing, and I couldn’t be more proud!
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Had no idea it was supposed to rain today lol. Did have some snow flakes late last night
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lol gfs
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Catching up after a long evening. Regardless of specifics, it’s nice to see threats on the horizon and potential for a decent snow or two. That 12z 12/19 storm was a beaut. thanks for the great discussion all!