At least Upton acknowledges guidance has been running too weak
The mixing, cold advection, and subsidence behind the departing upper low/trough will support sustained winds and gusts just below advisory levels.
NBM deterministic guidance has been running too weak with winds for the last several months, especially in cold advection and NW flow regimes. This appears to be no exception today and have raised sustained winds and wind gusts a bit above the NBM 90th percentile. Sustained NW winds 20-25 mph are likely with gusts 30-40 mph