Stormlover74

Hrrr flips us to sleet by 8pm then it pushes the sleet line back south

Nams a little better. Came south a bit

Going to be a crazy cutoff sw of ewr. 2 to 8 for my backyard

Good map

Ukie bumped north

Hrdps

28. Should be one of those overcast days in the 20s where it smells like snow

I will say I don't remember the last time the gfs was this consistent

Well yeah that one too

March 2017 bust. Nam sniffed out the flip to sleet which wasn't expected

Because the nws forecast is 3 to 5. An advisory level event

Craig Allen Update #3 A little tweaking to accommodate the models trying to figure out a)where heavier bands may set up b)where warmer air may nose in aloft and result in sleet or freezing rain c)if the 32 degree surface temp makes it up the coast to the South Shore of LI Finer details need to be ironed but I would stick with a general 4-8" for about 75-80% of the area. Heaviest will fall after dark, Friday and tapering off Saturday morning See you at 6 and 11 on CBS New York /2

Gfs is alone with the 6" line that far south. It has been consistent though. Generally its not going to pick up on that warm nose though

Maybe if it wss consistent but so far its still bouncing around

The less sleet the better. Want to be able to use the snowblower again

I like this blended map...at least the alignment. Amounts might be an inch or two too high in the southern purple areas

He has 6 to 10 way too far south and west

I know we don't really use the hdrps but its been showing this solution with a really drastic drop-off

Its Kuchera

The ukie is decent mostly 3 to 5. The heavy initial band kinda goes north of the area so amounts are lower for that reason than mixing

Its one of those storms where parts of Monmouth and li will do better than western nj where they'll mix sooner

That's why it's a watch. You put them out 48 hours in advance when 6+ looks likely. Which it did. There's no reason it can't be adjusted to an advisory.

As expected the dividing line has edged from Philly to Trenton to now near somerville. That sleet line will almost always make it to 78. It will come down to front end thump and if we can manage 4 to 5 before the pinging. Even 3 gets me to double digits for the winter so I'd be happy

Probably 4 this afternoon they'll change to warnings and advisories

OK go back