Stormlover74

Updated Upton discussion Strengthening low pressure moves from the Ohio Valley this evening to Upstate New York by late. LLJ helps push a warm front farther north, with the entire forecast area in the warm sector. A trailing cold front then reaches west of the Hudson towards daybreak. There`s enough moisture and lift for chances of showers at any given point tonight, but high res models continue to key on the main focus for showers and thunderstorms after midnight. The main line of showers and thunderstorms will enter western zones 06z to 09z, and then quickly move across the NYC/NJ metro 09z to 12z, and then across eastern zones shortly thereafter. The line will be forced by convergence of a +3 to +4 standard deviation PWAT subtropical moisture plume ahead of the front as well as deep layered lift enhanced by upper jet dynamics. Forecast rainfall amounts are generally 1/2 to 1 inch across the region with locally higher amounts possible. Much of this rain may come within the line of showers and thunderstorms. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is the main threat. The relatively fast movement of the showers and thunderstorms should limit any flash flooding threat, but WPC does have marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall from around NYC and points west. SPC has placed portions of NE NJ, NYC, and the Lower Hudson Valley in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. This is where there is some surface based CAPE progged by some models. The main threat appears to be damaging wind gusts. The environment is highly sheared with low CAPE, so there is potential for rotation, but the potential is very low. A stronger low-level inversion should limit the severe threat east of the Hudson River where instability is elevated.

Feels like the marine airmass has progressed west. Down to mid 60s, upper 50s nearby

Tornado watch for much of PA

Yeah they're up to 68 now

Very foggy out here too

Finally getting some sun. Up to 50

I don't. Last year was awful particularly August and September

yeah temps are going in the wrong direction. Was 54 earlier now 47

Plains blizzard will be very impressive. 2 days of 50 mph winds and 18-24" of snow

Kinda surprised upton is going with mid 60s here with temps hovering in the upper 40s/low 50s of course 60's are nearby so i'm guessing they expect the front to push back north

78..first shorts day

Yay more humidity because I've always wanted to live in Miami

Fire weather watch for all of NJ tomorrow. Gusts to 45 possible

76 to 48 in 24 hours

Starting to notice the smell of smoke from the wildfire in south Jersey

I just hit 72

Up to 66 now with quite a bit of sun

Some people like 90s and humidity. I'm not one of those people

Precip seems pretty widespread but so far nothing more than sprinkles

Could be enough to push us above average for the month

Already pretty heavy now

NYC had 6-7", most fell the night before

With the low tracking near us and the best precip going to our west I think some areas will be dryslotted for at least part of the day

Signs of spring are emerging but warm weather's a ways off

Happy spring. Bring on nice weather, green grass, flowers and all that crap