PackGrad05

Trends not looking great.. I blame La Nina for not getting any major cold air pushes... Our cold air surges after a storm with the northerly flow, and then recovers back up to seasonal, which just isn't getting it done... We need a system like this to move through and set the stage and then another one to take a favorable track right on its heels. We need arctic cold already in place or temperatures/dew points cold enough for the storm to generate its own cold air with wet bulb.. Neither looks possible (for now) with this system.

Temperature are the limiting factor here... Antecedent temperatures do not look great at all. We just haven't had a strong cold push all season. *IF* this pans out for central NC, it'll be another case of flake watching with marginal temps and mostly rain.

Cue up the ground temperatures comments! But this bodes well in my book. We always have a big southerly warm surge prior to a winter storm it seems.

We are still in the timeframe where models are doing big swings back and forth. Haven't seen any consolidation trends yet.

Cold air just doesn't get here in time for folks in southern Wake (which is always a huge issue)...

Still a long way out, but southern Wake already on the edge.....we love to live dangerously.

Definitely something to watch but still a little far out.. If the signal is still there by Sunday/Monday, I'll start paying more attention. Better than nothing!

That euro map makes it look like 90% of the winter storms in NC... Wake already on the southeast edge....and the NW trend has a ways to go.

That's one way to look at it... but really it is only "half" of prime climo time. The average snowfall for RDU for February/March is only slightly lower than the average snowfall for December/January... I'll start getting worried if we haven't seen anything (observation, not models), by Valentine's.

The 28/29 GFS fantasy storm would be nice.

1/19 is still a period of time to watch.. we just need a high to the north to supply some cold air.

Big flakes in Willow Spring, southern Wake! 9:37PM

Yeah I'd be surprised to see anything more than a random flurry. But any flakes on Christmas day is a win to me. It is also showing mainly central/eastern NC. Foothills do have the downslope component.

The 12Z HRRR is coming in now. Still showing possibility of flurries over central on Christmas Day. Accumulations are non-consequential, dusting if anything.

Temperatures (for NC) still look below normal to me throughout most of the next 10 days.

Remember it will take time for that dense cold air to bleed past the mountains... That's one reason why the cold chasing moisture scenario hardly ever pans out for central NC.

Yep. I do remember a similar scenario occurring 2-3 years ago and I remember Brad P. saying the same thing... then it ended up working out but it had to do more with another piece of energy interacting...

how about that last frame on the 18Z GFS? SC bullseye... plenty of time for the NW trend for us NC folks haha

The long-range GFS doesn't look bad for Christmas week. Showing some above normal temps here and there but nothing crazy... Looks like a surge of cold air toward 12/21-12/23 time period.

Didn't y'all hit 32 a couple days ago?

Raleigh is going to get really close to breaking the record for latest first freeze. December 3 is the record... Officially, RDU only got down to 33 earlier this week. I don't see anything promising through at least November 20, unless that changes.

I don't consider a season very active by the number of "major storms" or whether or not they make landfall. The formation of a large number of storms is enough to make it active. Their ultimate strength and impact could be the result of poorly timed shear, dry air, or a trough that kicks it out to sea as a result of just bad timing.

All in all, central NC fared better than I expected. Looks like the more extreme dynamics were to the south and the timing of the day also helped tremendously.

Speaking for NC, it would be a low instability until the wee morning hours on Monday. Sunday looks to be wedged in with CAD most of the day... if that eroded a little quicker, we could destabilize more. Main threat for NC (as of now) is straight-line winds as the front moves through.

A trace I believe.