PackGrad05

The NAM warm nose is due to the fact that it is over amplifying the system.  Only get a warm nose if the system is as strong as it says, which is unlikely.

High placement is not ideal for a lot of quick low level cold.  We need the high to slide east.

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

So you're saying the 6z Euro  looks good?

Based on what I saw, the 6Z Euro did not look good.  It was the most anemic with moisture out of the last 4 runs and all other models.

Just now, griteater said:

I like the idea of this meeting in the middle with the model runs today and tomorrow.  The NAM is too wet and the Euro is too dry.

I agree with that.  I think we start to see a decrease in QPF across the board with the 12Z suite.  That trend will continue for a couple runs, is my prediction.  NAM and GFS overamplifying, IMO.

https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1229745451144040450?s=20

6Z Euro (and ensembles) is drier again.  This is a trend that it keeps getting drier and drier.  NWS and local mets leaning heavily on this model given its record.  

After analyzing the overnight runs, our surface temperatures will still be an issue in central NC.  Rates will overcome that but as soon as the precip lets up or stops, they will shoot back up (except for extreme overnight hours perhaps).  
I could see this being a sloppy/wet snow on grass and raised surfaces, melting by mid-day Friday.  Better than what we have had, though.  
Originally, this was a win for eastern and southeastern NC...  But looking at the 3K nam, northern NC should be a little more excited with less mixing and temperature issues.

Local station (WRAL) still going with the possibility of a wintry mix with some accumulation bridges?  Moisture and cold air limited are their 2 reasons.

RAH discussion is in line with this.  Temperatures remain above freezing at surface until storm departs.  They even say that most of the area will dry pre-dawn limited black ice potential.  

Quote

Precipitation should clear out of central NC rapidly pre-dawn Friday
leaving sub-freezing temperatures and a light northerly breeze in
its wake until sunrise. With sustained northerly winds in the 6 to
10mph range, thinking that drying processes in the coldest areas
should limit the black ice/flash freeze potential for the most part.

Brad Panovich is doing a live stream now and just said he does not like the placement of the high, either.  He says he wants it further east and the low further west.  

National Weather Service in Raleigh is saying the same thing as of 2:50PM on Monday.  
 

Quote

The high is not in a favorable location for
the dense cold air to make it into NC very quickly...likely having
to filter across the central Appalachians and south through VA...and
so the probability of more than a rain/snow mix appears very low at
this time. 

Quote

 

 

Yeah the placement can definitely be overcome by the strength, which we have going for us.  But the cold air transport will be slow if it has to cross the Apps.  We see that time and time again with the models being too quick with the cold air.

Big issue with this system is placement of the high.  It is NOT in ideal territory.  Going to be hard to bleed that cold surface air over the mountains...always delayed.  

Interested in seeing 18Z EPS numbers, but the cut back on the ECMWF is not a good sign.  Very anemic owning to more development off the coast and not throwing much moisture inland.  

Local weather stations (Raleigh area) still going with "little to no accumulation", even with recent model data.  They are leaning heavily on the Euro ensembles and they showed the probability of 1" at 36%.  That number likely went down to 10-15% with the 18Z data based on QPF.

One thing to notice on the euro map just posted is the tight gradient of QPF in eastern NC.  Shifts in that 20-50 miles will make a big difference..  But it still looks like a very light event.  At this point I would forecast at most a slushy 1-2 inches on grassy surfaces for eastern NC...  not much elsewhere.  

WRAL is currently forecasting light wintry precip possible, mainly east of 95.  Mentioned ground temps would be too warm for any impacts.  
The recent model run of their future cast came in while they were telling the forecast and it shows even less precip for central NC (jumped SE again)..  

I think cautious is an understatement.  If you read between the lines, they pretty much think it will take a miracle, especially with the limiting factors that still need to be overcome.  They make it seem a lot less likely than all the other discussion on here.  

Based on all the recent model runs, I agree with that forecast, particularly with regards to temperatures.  The low development in tandem with the high will definitely increase cold air surge into NC, but I don't think it will be enough for central NC.  Eastern NC looks like the honey hole, as of now.

3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Outside of the one 18z run yesterday the EPS has been pretty locked in, not sure I'd bet against it at this point. Hoping to be wrong though. 

Can you elaborate on which region you are speaking about?  I assume it is Georgia based on your tag?

I don't have access to EURO but based on GFS, temperatures look like a big factor, particularly surface temperatures based on soundings I looked at on GFS and model output.  In addition, NWS RAH is forecasting a high of 46 on Thursday and 42 on Friday.  

GFS is not on board with that system, as of 6Z 2/13/20

Anyone able to post what the ECMWF showed for the 2/21 system?

Right now I'd put more "stock" in the ECMWF, especially with that mid-state wake county cut off.    Almost looks like a rain-to-snow transition which hardly ever works out for us.

I'm hoping it lasts to at least get a flurry in wake county, central NC.  Awesome for folks to the west!

Really surprised how fast this sped up..   Last night the report was that it would arrive close to midnight...  this morning it would arrive between 4-7...  It actually arrived around 1-2PM.

I think Raleigh can pretty much hang it up (for snow) until second half of February.  First half looks like toast.

Based on the precip output, most of that in central NC is sleet/freezing rain.

12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The 12z GFS is considerably weaker with the 7th system. With that said, more importantly is the overall pattern is still complete crap. The SE Ridge is not going anywhere except for quick relaxations here and there. It just isn't in the cards this year.

Weaker is fine for me, especially near the transition zone in central NC.  I don't want a real amped storm that pumps in a lot of warm air.

I don't even like the looks of that fantasy storm.  It has southern Wake rain written all over it.