PackGrad05

The soundings don't really support snow until lunch/afternoon and that's when the system is moving out...  Cold rain until the cold air is established at which point most of the QPF is gone.  

I should clarify this is for the Raleigh area.

6Z GFS a whiff for the triangle.  Maybe some deformation band flurries. That's it.  

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Might want to look again. 

I did...  I see the blues, but I'm not buying it with surface and boundary layer temperatures

12Z GFS looks like a cold rain for most east of the mountains.  

Yeah, *IF* we got a system like that, I think you could cut those clown map totals down to 25%..   1/2" realistically would accumulate on grassy surfaces in Wake..   Air temp, soil temps...  Mike Moss on WRAL was mentioning it yesterday, which is very early for WRAL, but even he said that soil temps were a big issue.  

3 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

I got measurable sleet 30 hours after 75-degree temperatures this week in Oklahoma. To be fair, we didn't have several days of 70s in a row, but still, it was in the 40s-60s most of the previous several days.

Yeah.  We have had almost 2 weeks of 60-80 degree days here...  It really feels like April/May.  Flowers/tree are budding/blossoming.  Pollen everywhere.

The ground temperatures have to be extremely warm right now.  For any accumulation chances, we would need at least a week of cold temperatures prior to a storm.

As much as I would like more winter weather, I'm satisfied with the 2 events we already had in Wake.  At least we got something.

The 18Z GFS doesn't show squat for central NC through the whole run.

Does the 12Z GFS have any support from other models for that Monday weather?

At the end of the GFS run we are already halfway through February almost haha

The GFS only goes out to February 10.  All the data I've looked at suggests that the last 2/3 of the month would be cold.  I'll start cancelling winter when the 10th-20th also looks warm.

Just now, JoshWeather said:

yes.  12 miles can mean all the difference

I know that.  I meant, is it simply surface temps that are causing that discrepancy?  

I'm in Willow Spring in southern wake and it is not sticking to my roads.   Yet, 12 miles to my northwest, roads are covered.  What difference does 12 miles make?  Is it just surface temps?  

A couple days of cold before this to lower soil temperatures..   The soil temperatures have risen greatly in the past few days.

The temperatures will only drop if the precipitation is falling at a heavy enough rate for a sustained period of time.  As soon as that lets up or stops, then temperatures go right back up.

Really surprised how much the SREF is showing for RDU.  I'm not buying it at all.  I'd cut down those amounts by 75% or more.

It is exciting because it is the first event of the season for a lot of us, but I agree with her statements.  Fun to see snow flakes flying, but I'm not cancelling any of my saturday plans because of it.  

I'm beginning to wonder if Raleigh will ever get a good snowstorm anymore...always a warm nose.

I also agree that this is a NW piedmont event.  

the 9Z sref did increase for RDU...  Which is surprising given some of the latest model trends.  I know the SREF can be overdone, though.

The line is always through Wake County.  Hilarious how that always happens.  

You remember what a warm nose did to our storm back in January?  (that was way less marginal looking than this one)

I think some wet snow is possible for the climatologically favored areas in the NW (of raleigh), but anything else is a cold rain with some flakes mixed in at times.

Both the GFS and NAM bufkits are showing something frozen...  though the NAM has more of a frozen mix.  
In addition, the SREF plumes show a little bit for RDU, but not much.

For my area, southern wake, I've seen this type of scenario a million times.  Cold rain while I strain my eyes to see some flakes mix in.   If temperatures were colder it would be a different story.   And today's 70 degrees and sunshine aren't doing any favors for soil temperatures.

Based on the track, wind field, and wind probability maps, this will be a bigger deal for central/eastern NC than Irma.