PackGrad05

Just now, BullCityWx said:

For the coastal plain of Wake? Yes. For north of 540? not much.

north of 540 is less than 30% of the county.  Much of the county was rain for the past 2 similar events.

Not sure how much better we can get for Wake.  Need that HP to trend even stronger.  Typical CAD areas favored again.

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For the triangle (Raleigh) area we need ever mb we can get as we’re not a favored CAD location. It was more of an imby post but agreed it’s enough to work if placement is correct 

Yes, for us (greater Raleigh area), you need a strong High or super dry air at the onset.  Geographically we are at the eastern extent of most of your CAD scenarios (with freezing temps).

With the model volatility (more than normal) this season, I am ignoring any models outside of 72-96 hours at this point.  

1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

Too bad temps are so borderline, this would be a great storm.

That's been the wrinkle all season.  We haven't had "torch" temperatures, and we've been cold..  but we haven't been THAT cold.  Even the last storm that produced was borderline temp problems for most of central NC.  

I'll take a few days of torch if we snap back to crazy cold afterward...  That happened 2-3 years ago.  Let's see what happens next week.

all rain (or token mix at beginning) for Wake.  Moving on to the next chance.

The only system I'm looking at is this weekend.  Anything further out is still fantasy land, especially this year with wild model swings.

With that said, I'm not even sure I'd get a dusting out of the system Saturday night/sunday.  Looks too warm for my area, but I'll watch trends today.

10 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I feel like the models are trending better for Sunday. The Para Gfs that first latched onto the Jan 28th snow might lead the trend this time. I think today we will start to see the models make corrections NW and more precipitation over spreading the region. 

True but the latest Para actually trended more northwest/less with the snow on Sunday.  Need to see the 12Z run to see if that trend continues.  

We went from potentially record cold to a POSITIVE TEMP ANOMALY on Monday..  Can't make this up.  

5 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

4-6 across the area. And temps afterwards are extremely cold for multiple days. Snow would be around a while. Perfect setup on the 12z. And looking at the H5 maps, it was close to a monster 

Yes I see now.  The map I was looking at wasn't completely updated.  Thanks.

That's odd.  The tropical tidbits page doesn't show that at all.  Good stuff.

Right I see that.  But 6 hours prior, temps are borderline (for Wake).  The system is gone 6 hours later.  So we are looking at a quick hit of less than 6 hours of snow potential.  The model doesn't show any accumulations for those time periods unless something went wrong with it.

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

GFS with a snowstorm for NC next Wed/Thurs

A rain to snow changeover as cold air surges in...  not really showing any accumulations.

Just now, CaryWx said:

Per what model?--gfs? Maybe.  Not the euro I don't think

12Z GFS shows a 1PM temp of 43 on  Monday.  for Wake.

It's more organized and wetter but wayyyyy too warm.  We are looking at temps in the 40s on Monday now.

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In my humble opinion, this isn’t a bad thing if we want snow. I know these super cold blasts usually mean suppression city. It’s not like the cold disappears from the guidance either, it just doesn’t bleed into our region to the extent it did in some previous runs. It doesn’t need to be 20 degrees to snow. It still shows a prolonged period of below normal temps and an extremely active southern jet. I think we are in as good a spot as we can get starting early next week going out through the following week at least, 

I agree but if you want snow that sticks and is actually fun to go out and play in, you need colder temperatures.  The last 2 snows I've had (last week and February 2020) were snow falling with surface temperatures around 34 and it stuck, but it was so wet and sloppy and disappeared in 4-5 hours.  
I know that falling snow and snow accumulation can help moderate surface temps, but highs in the mid to upper 30s isn't going to cut it.

I had a feeling that "historic" cold for Monday was too far out.   GFS still has us below normal, but nothing historic at all.  High temps above freezing.  
I don't have access to Euro for comparison.

Need the Euro south.  Would be another cold rain or worse (ice) for Wake!

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Wildreman, is that you?

haha I love the pattern and the signal, but I want it to get within 5 days and still be locked in.  And as I mentioned, it moderates a few days after and another cold surge coming but as strong.  

We are still 7 days out.  I expect this to moderate and be transient.  Highs in the mid-upper 30s for central NC look likely....I'm not sold on anything colder this far out.

I love how the 12Z GFS shows the coldest air of the season on Monday...  then the system that rolls through is rain.  

Superbowl weekend looks interesting on GFS, but temperature suspect...especially in afternoon on Saturday...  close to 40.

A high over the plains works if it is strong enough.  One of the guys who posts on twitter a lot, either jonathan or eric, posted a detailed description of this ahead of last week's event.

Close to 70 on February 6 (saturday)

I'm watching the short-term models for MONDAY AFTERNOON here.  Shows a possible dusting or more.