PackGrad05

The 28/29 GFS fantasy storm would be nice.

1/19 is still a period of time to watch..  we just need a high to the north to supply some cold air.  

Big flakes in Willow Spring, southern Wake!  9:37PM

2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

NWS not buying it. Not even a mention of clouds in the forecast. Down-sloping makes it almost impossible to get any snow here in the lee. 

Yeah I'd be surprised to see anything more than a random flurry.  But any flakes on Christmas day is a win to me.  

It is also showing mainly central/eastern NC.  Foothills do have the downslope component.

The 12Z HRRR is coming in now.  Still showing possibility of flurries over central on Christmas Day.  Accumulations are non-consequential, dusting if anything.

50 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said:

I am just an observer, no met.  But the appearance  to me  is the models have backed off the cold a good bit.  It does not seem to be as strong or far reaching , hence the absence of snow being projected outside the mountains. It looks like the Pacific stream has grabbed control and we have the west to east movement of the La Nina again dominating. The two or three chances between here and the 1st seem to have left the building for anything south and east of the Appl.  Somebody is going to see 3-5 inches of rain in N Georgia for sure.

Temperatures (for NC) still look below normal to me throughout most of the next 10 days.  

Remember it will take time for that dense cold air to bleed past the mountains...  That's one reason why the cold chasing moisture scenario hardly ever pans out for central NC.  

5 hours ago, eyewall said:

On  both the GFS and Euro it is cold chasing the moisture with it primarily being a FROPA. That is the kiss of death for the NC Piedmont. It almost NEVER works out. The GFS tries to develop a surface low but it is barely there.

Yep.  I do remember a similar scenario occurring 2-3 years ago and I remember Brad P. saying the same thing...  then it ended up working out but it had to do more with another piece of energy interacting...

how about that last frame on the 18Z GFS?  SC bullseye...  plenty of time for the NW trend for us NC folks haha

The long-range GFS doesn't look bad for Christmas week.  Showing some above normal temps here and there but nothing crazy...  Looks like a surge of cold air toward 12/21-12/23 time period.

1 hour ago, yotaman said:

This may be the 1st November in quite a while that we didn't have a freeze. Don't see anything in the near future to change that. Depressing.

Didn't y'all hit 32 a couple days ago?

Raleigh is going to get really close to breaking the record for latest first freeze.  December 3 is the record...   Officially, RDU only got down to 33 earlier this week.  
I don't see anything promising through at least November 20, unless that changes.

Just now, yoda said:

But no major hurricanes and 4 of those storms were crappy TS's that didn't do much at all.  Only 2 hurricanes and both were "hits"... but Isaiah was really the first to do something this season IMO

I don't consider a season very active by the number of "major storms" or whether or not they make landfall.   The formation of a large number of storms is enough to make it active.  Their ultimate strength and impact could be the result of poorly timed shear, dry air, or a trough that kicks it out to sea as a result of just bad timing.  

All in all, central NC fared better than I expected.  Looks like the more extreme dynamics were to the south and the timing of the day also helped tremendously.  

Speaking for NC, it would be a low instability until the wee morning hours on Monday.  Sunday looks to be wedged in with CAD most of the day...  if that eroded a little quicker, we could destabilize more.   Main threat for NC (as of now) is straight-line winds as the front moves through.

17 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said:

Did Wilmington get any Snow last night?

A trace I believe.

Based on RadarScope, the Raleigh area still has at least a couple hours of precip left..  You have to use Precipitation Depiction mode to really pick up the light snow bands..  It also appears to be backfilling a little near the triad.

Looks like Wake only has about another 1-2 hours of snow before the back edge is here.  They were predicting 11-12 for the cutoff.  Am I missing something?

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

RAH is talking about a cut back:

Very few if any changes this morning. Looks like a later
start to the snow across the north as the precipitation has not
quite filled in across the north this morning. The longer these
areas remain precipitation free, the more temperatures will be
allowed to rise and the lower chances for significant snowfall
amounts. Generally, expect snow accumulation to largely hold off
until after 4 PM this afternoon, with increasing chances for snow
through the evening and early overnight. However, there is still a
good bit of uncertainty with respect to amounts.

They posted that around 11AM.  No big deal.  We ALWAYS have to overcome dry air around here before the snow gets going.  That's because our cold source is usually arctic (or near arctic) air that is very dry to start with.   

The radar will fill in.  You also have to remember that snow returns are always lighter.. I switch my radarscope to precipitation depiction mode usually.

FWIW, the new run of WRAL futurecast model is now showing 2-3 inches for most of the triangle.  This is in line with the NAM.  Their futurecast is usually pretty conservative so I think that's a good sign.

The 3K NAM holds on to precipitation later into Friday morning (3-4AM) while the HRRR tends to cut it off around midnight.  This will play a big role in road conditions Friday morning.  A stiff wind and dropping temps will dry a lot of the roads before they can freeze, but all this hinges on the duration of the lingering precip.

Don't trust the HRRR this far out.  I only use it for simulated radar during the event.

I wouldn't worry about SREF means at this point.  Other models still look good and we're to the point to almost quit looking at those big models and focus on the radar and satellite images as the storm is coming together.

The NAM is fine.  If anything, it is more in line with the realistic expectations of the other models and forecasts.