PackGrad05

Yep, that tornado in Willow Spring touched down a quarter mile from my house!  Right on the other side of the trees!  I went and looked at the damage today.  Definitely tornadic looking.  

The storm that was tornado warned in JoCo moved through my area of Wake in Willow Spring.  We had very heavy gusts at my home, approximately 55-60 mph at least.  Strongest winds I've seen in a long time.  It knocked my power out for 5 hours.  
When the power came on, I saw that one local station said there was a possible tornado that moved through my area (near Highway 42 and Hilltop Rd).  I remember watching the velocities during this time on RadarScope and I didn't see any couplets, just straight-line.  However, there is the exact same cell that moved into JoCo and prompted the tornado warning, so I guess it is possible that something extremely brief touched down or at least lowered.  

On 7/22/2019 at 8:25 PM, superjames1992 said:

The heat wave was kind of lackluster here.  Saturday wasn’t even hot relative to recent days despite the excessive heat warming.

I'm in southern Wake and it was unbearable...  I don't remember Saturday but sunday and monday were horrible..  upper 90s close to 100.

I'm not worried about winter.  I've come to terms with not having a wall-to-wall cold winter in these parts.  We just need a cold spell long enough to get a decent storm.

Back to the topic, though, I'm looking forward to the cool down.  Even 90 would feel like a relief at this point.

My car and home roof was destroyed in the Willow Spring hail storm back on September 1, 2017.  So when that hail storm started coming this way, I was having flashbacks.  Fortunately, my area only got pea sized/marble sized this time.  But I saw the worst went toward the Garner/Cleveland area.  

That size hail for this general area twice in less than two years is pretty remarkable.  

Here is the definition for moderate from SPC.  I'd say it fit the bill.

Quote

• 4-MDT (red) - Moderate risk - An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail, or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.

   

I don't really feel it was a bust, at all, for NC.  There was plenty of wind damage associated with the straight-line winds.  In addition, there were probably over 20 tornado warnings for central NC, some of which have verified on-the-ground tornadoes.  

The latest briefing from NWS Raleigh shows the timing for central NC being between 1PM and 8PM.

Though, looking at the latest NAM3K and HRRR, there appears to be some convection, perhaps discrete, popping up around 9-10AM.    Anyone else seeing this?

The high-res models are all over the place with radar depiction.  HRRR, NAM, etc... all look different with timing of storms and/or discrete cells vs. lines.  

Wake right on the edge...of course.

I know it won't be a big deal, but I'd like to see some flakes falling!

FV3 is much wetter and shows Wake getting in on it too.

The 12Z Nam3K is a little more east with snow....brings it right to Wake.

Timing of this will have everyone thinking it is an April Fools Joke.   

I haven't had a chance to look at a lot of the details.  What's the issue for Raleigh?  Cold air or storm track too close to coast?  or both?

I hope this trends east so Raleigh can cash in a little!  

GFS isn't buying it right now.  NAM and FV3 are.  

Still looks west of Wake County.  I need this to trend east, please.  

Yeah decent for typical CAD areas...  Not good for central NC of course...  

I mean, where are the temperatures coming from on the NAM for SNOW?  I just don't see a good supply on any model.

06Z GFS super close to something...

06Z FV3 says game on.  (for now, probably gone later)

What is the EURO saying?

April 2 is a time frame to watch.  Nice coastal storm.  Temperatures will be the issue, obviously.

The Friday morning models aren't far from something for NC...  just need the low more south.

well, as usual, it appears the snow is gone.  bring on spring temps.  

Looks like a Wake County split.  Must be accurate.

18Z FV3 close to something for March 21/22...  GFS prefers March 25.

6Z GFS has no fantasy storms