PackGrad05

NAM still pretty much blanks Wake.  North and west, as usual.

18Z GFS was a little earlier with the arrival of the precip and maybe a touch colder?

At this point for Wake, it'll be interesting to watch temps and see if there are any road issues (bridges, etc..) that would impact commutes and/or schools.  

When does the 18Z RGEM come out?

Looking better for folks near the VA/NC line..  Looking worse for central NC, once again.

RGEM is really the only thing still showing even a minor event for triangle.  Lost support pretty much from NAM and GFS.  FV3 still holding out slightly.

16 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Funny thing about the 6z NAM, it was actually colder at the surface (..dew points) then 0z. There was just less precip to start the event. 

So we're starting to get the colder look, we need to also focus on the start time/amounts of precip. 

I Just took a closer look at the 3K NAM precip depiction.  As the precipitation moves in, you can see a "blank" spot in the shape of the wedge over central NC.  Could the model be picking up on the moisture not overcoming the initial dry air in place?  If so, how well is that normally forecasted in models?

Anyone have the maps for latest NAM models?  I saw amounts on BUFKIT for RDU, but would like to see map.

latest high res NAM looks blank for central NC.  Went really anemic.

Maps?

GFS/FV3/CMC all show potential for wintry mix at onset of precip for central/north-central NC.

FWIW, the WPC Probabilities show a 20-30% chance of Wake getting .01" of freezing rain.  5-10% chance of .10" of freezing rain.

Not a big deal, but the chances are there.  Will have to see if this increases as CAD is better forecasted.

18Z doesn't look as good as the 6Z or 12Z did.

1 hour ago, tarheelwx said:

With its performance beyond 5 days, it is ludicrous to think you’d replace any model with the FV3. It has repeatedly shown big storms for central NC in the 6-14 range that the others have not shown for the most part.  Maybe I’m just judging my mby, but it’s been terrible.  Way too cold with cold and wintry weather.  Has it performed better elsewhere?

TW 

I want to say the FV3 handled the December storm pretty well... We were tracking it for 7-10 days and it never really wavered.  

For those in Southern Wake, this winter has pretty much been a blank.  I had like half of inch of slush that was gone by mid-day and nothing with the second round later that day.

18Z GFS really wasn't sold on much..   FV3 on the other hand...

The 6Z GFS still shows some ice potential for central NC on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Sharp cutoff near southern wake?  That map is legit!

Yeah, I'm not one that usually writes off winter early, but it isn't looking good at all.  Maybe we will get surprised down the road.

RAH discussion states that another arctic front passes through tonight and will deposit the cold air for RDU.   Low near 15-16 with wind chill around 10.  
Think we get a wind chill advisory, too?

Taken literally, the 12Z 3KNAM shows about 4 hours of precipitation for Wake County.  Question still remains how much dries before it freezes on roadways.

Both the high-res NAM and HRRR show about a 3-4 hour pocket of rain moving through central NC.  There is about a 3-4 hour lag period after rain ends before surface temps reach freezing.  Whatever doesn't evaporate and dry up will likely freeze by morning.

the big question for this system is how much black ice there will be wednesday morning.  

00Z high res NAM is interesting.  Has some light precipitation out ahead of the main front for central NC.  albeit rain.

NAM3k simulated radar shows a sharp line of heavy rain moving through central NC.  Not really any show (verbatim on sim radar), but definitely the potential of black ice since the freezing temps look to set in by 11PM.  That only gives about 3-4 hours of drying time prior to any standing water freezing.