PackGrad05

I saw a meteorologist from MS post last night that by dark, people would be calling him an idiot, and he expected most of their action to take place after dark.  I can't find it now or remember who it was. 

Personally, I was surprised with the large moderate area for NC/SC.  I knew there would be a moderate area, but I was surprised at the northern extent of it.  
I think this is where experience with CAD comes into play.  It will truly be a question of how far north and west the CAD erodes during the day...   The moderate area looks to align with your typical ice/rain border in winter weather. 

is TorCon their version of sig tor parameter?  Or is it something different?

46 minutes ago, Avdave said:

IT will be trimmed back, I dont think we really get into the humid and moist airmass.  This is just like winter, we miss the meat of the storm here in the Triangle.  I rather be in Fayettenam or Lumberton to SC for this one if I want severe thunderstorms

I'm surprised they went with the enhanced for such a large area so far in advance.  Seems it would've been better to go with a large slight and then increase to enhanced as needed.   Unless they wanted to raise awareness early.

New run of WRAL future cast model shows a less widespread event for central NC.  They are hopeful trend will continue and level 3 area be trimmed back.   

WRAL just said they have noticed a trend with “storm energy” (probably CAPE) being higher east of Raleigh.   Said they are watching to see if the level 3 area is trimmed back tomorrow.    

20 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

Some of the soundings in North Carolina for Thursday look better than tomorrow's event.

What do you mean by better?  Better for creating severe weather or better as in less severe weather?

The 3K NAM doesn't show anything severe over central NC before 8PM.  (that's when it currently ends).  At 8PM, a line of storms is popping over the mountains
GFS much quicker...    Timing still up in the air.

NAM shows a good amount of 0-3km helicity over NC on Thursday...  Sig Tor Parameter around 1-2. .  Limiting factor appears to be instability...  progression of warm front and time of day will play big.

12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Indeed so, 12z NAM absolutely smashes central South Carolina on Thursday

 

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Which NAM product are you looking at?  

More fantasy snow on 6Z GFS for March 29.  

This has actually been one of the "coldest overall" winters I can remember in recent years.  Yes, we haven't had brutally cold arctic temperatures, but we also haven't had anything over 70 since Dec. 13 (until today for RDU).  It has consistently been where it is supposed to be, or a little lower at times.  

C all day easy.

I'm close to the southern edge again.  I need this to suppress more.

6 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

RAH downgraded everyone except the VA border counties to an advisory.

Yep.  And they mentioned my thinking.  Temperatures on the southern edge will teeter between 32-33 all night....risks of some slick spots in the morning will remain, particularly for northern wake.

1 minute ago, Dunkman said:

I don’t know how things are everywhere but here in west central Guilford it’s melting at the point that there will be very little left by sunset. That would almost certainly make the overnight icing inconsequential.

There is more precipitation coming.  I'm not talking about residual moisture from today.  

6 minutes ago, hickory said:

I understand what everybody is saying, but Raleigh is still saying a second wave is coming later today and could be .15-.25 additional accumulation. I still think it’s to early to call a bust for the border counties. They posted the latest graphics on Facebook. I hope it’s a bust, but still should proceed with caution in some areas. 

 

 

I've been saying this all morning.  The advisory for Wake always went until 7AM friday unless it is shortened...  Same goes for rest.  

Not a lot of talk about tonight when high res models show freezing rain returning, particularly north of 85.

1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said:

Where’s the wind that was forecasted?  There’s enough wet soil and ice on trees to cause problems unless winds stay calm.

We've had plenty of wind here in Wake.  Gusty for sure this morning.  

I'm still watching high res models for temps for Wake overnight tonight.  Could have another brief period of frozen stuff.

I can confirm that was a large outage near WTCC on 401 north of Fuquay.  I have friends who live over there.  
 

The 12Z HRRR shows overnight temps getting down to 33 in Wake with lingering precip.  I read earlier in this thread that HRRR overestimates temperatures..  So based on that, should we expect temps to dip down to freezing again tonight?  

So the next question is does anyone drop below freezing Thursday night/Friday morning?

Getting a nice glaze over the last hour or so down here in Willow Spring, southern Wake.

Just now, eyewall said:

I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now.

They have already scaled back.
This is definitely a bigger chance of impact for my area than the last 2 FZRA systems.  However, I'm expecting nothing more than a glaze to .1" in Wake, other than perhaps the extreme NW corner.  I'm completely fine with that since it is just freezing rain with no snow!