PackGrad05

If we get something, I don't think it will be something we track from Day 10.  I think it'll pop up in the 5-6 day range and we reel it in from there.  I've abandoned even looking at the Day 10 models bc they flip flop so much.

3 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z EURO with a Wacko run!

Can you provide specifics?

It's a shame there isn't a high in a good location on 2/1, 2/2....  Great low track.

Hey all.  I'll be in the Jersey City/NYC area this weekend visiting family.  Never been up there when it snowed!  Do a lot of things shut down when it snows, such as PATH train, stores, museums, etc..?  Keep in mind that I'm coming from a Raleigh, NC perspective when lots of things shut down if it snows.  

If this is the wrong place to post this, I apologize.  Thanks

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

21/22nd storm still looks good to me. Lots of moisture just south of us, right where we want it at this point!

Agreed.  I'd rather work with too much cold/suppressed than it be warm and wish for more cold..

Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting...  Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us,  probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year.  

Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5.  The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5.  

7 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Wasn't there a guy here who lived in that far south corner.  That map must make him physically ill.

That's me.  I'm used to it by now...   There are a couple more of us on here, too.  My friend in northern Wake always texts me pics of his snow and I send him back pics of my rain.  

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

I would put my location (right on the Granville/Wake line) at or greater than 5 feet from 2010 until now. I've been lucky and received big storms whereas folks in south Wake have missed out.  

That's true.  I am looking at it through south wake lens.  The gradient is ridiculous.  Noway we have been anywhere close to 5 feet.

Interesting map, but I wish it was more specific.  Shows portions of Wake County at 5 feet, and I really don't think that's true...  Most of Wake would be 1-3 feet over that time frame I would think.  

Just a reminder, it only takes one.  It still isn't January.  I think we get lucky once or twice...even if it is 60 a couple days after.  

Definitely lack of cold air supply on that run.  But it is only one run of a deterministic model and we are still a week away.

the 06GFS is a tad slower with the system, making it more of a saturday night/sunday event...  It also has the bullseye further north.  

Is anyone able to share what the EPS showed?  Or the individual members?  I'm going to be on the OH/WV border so I'm excited about my chances of seeing snow with this one..  
I want to see the euro and eps start jumping on board though.   Nice looking signal on the GFS and GEFS.

Can someone post the EPS ensemble members?

GFS still shows "some type of storm" on the 21st...  seems to trend more toward a disorganized mess.  The ECMWF doesn't show anything for that timeframe really.

FZRA is a self-limited process anyway, so those extreme amounts are not to be taken literally..   However, the signal is something to watch for.  Doesn't take much FZRA to be a big problem.

Super long range, but really nice pattern/signal around the 21st...

8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

December ain’t looking great, unless you like golf ! The mood flakes Asheville sees Monday, may be it until Jan/Feb! Happy holidays!

Based on what?   The guidance I'm looking at doesn't look too bad.  No torches.

21 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Am I reading things wrong or is there a little torch near/after Thanksgiving, then cold beginning that weekend? 

Looks like there would be some stout ridging ahead of a really deep trough that tries to push in some arctic air.  The push doesn't look as strong as it did a couple runs ago, so need to keep watching.  

Unless the pattern shifts, this may be the last winter-like thing to track for at least a week or two.  

The EURO is consistent with a little novelty snow for central NC on Tuesday evening...  GFS isn't buying it right now.  (as of saturday night)

As of this morning (Thursday), it looks like both the GFS and ECMWF have lost it.

I remember RDU went multiple days without getting above 32..  it was crazy.  Couple years ago I think.  The pond behind my house froze more solid than I've ever seen it!  (and it rarely freezes as it is)

I just want our first freeze..  Looks like we are going to be behind schedule in Raleigh.

Doesn't look too bad.  Mainly 70s with a few days of 80s thrown in.