PackGrad05

I think a lot of folks are going to see some surprise flurries in the morning.

The trends of the HRRR has been to increase QPF and throw the moisture a little further NW tomorrow morning.  Some snow falling in southern Harnett and Johnston counties, taken verbatim.

HRRR continues to build in some snow across portions of NC for a brief period Tuesday morning..  Don't know if it is enough for folks in Wake to score...at least i'm in extreme southern wake..  

11 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

We do have the latest HRRR:

 

 

Interesting.   It is on the last frame, though.  Will have to see if it continues.

Anyway for that Tuesday morning precip to magically trend into central NC?  A guy could hope, i suppose.

Doesn't seem to have any other support at the moment, but I don't have access to euro/eps.

No discussion of 12Z models?  Telling I guess.

Window is closing for this thing to make big jumps...  need to see something promising by Saturday I say.

A lot of us are frustrated because we didn't get 1 storm.  Draw a line diagonal through Wake and everyone south and east of that line was zilched on the December storm.  That's a lot of posters on this board.

6Z GFS and FV3 show sunday night's rain trying to end as a little snow on Monday. we all know how that usually works out.   They both have the other system suppressed and off the coast.

Both the 18Z GFS and FV3 show light snow for central NC on Monday.  But the Tuesday/Wednesday system is non-existent...  poof.  
What do other models show?  

I just read that the FV3 was delayed because of its cold and snow bias.  I've seen that first-hand this winter!

5 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Wait.  You're in favor of censoring which information the public has access to?  I'm going to file a Freedom of Information Act request to counter your proposal.  =)

It should be up to the individual to determine what information they want to give credence to and how they want to process it.  I don't need/want someone else filtering my weather map access because they believe I wouldn't be able to handle whatever mood swings they think I might incur.

haha, I just meant from a personal standpoint.  I just don't have the willpower to stay away.   

I would take the 12Z GFS in a heartbeat.  

This is why I almost wish we didn't have access to the models this far out...  They always do this.  
I really surprised WRAL even mentioned the possibility on their forecast last night.  Maze said he only mentioned it because people were seeing snowflakes on their phone app, but he cautioned that models switch around frequently this far out. 

I do not like the Canadian or the 00Z GFS showing the southern wake special (rain).  Hard to get excited when you know the NW trend is coming.  We are still so far away.
However, I do like that the signal is still there!  That's all I really focus on at this point.

If this one gives everyone else a score but blanks southern Wake like the Dec. storm, that would stink.  C'mon give us one more shot!

12Z FV3 showing a little snow for central NC around March 6.   GFS is suppressed.

What's Euro/EPS showing for this timeframe?

6Z GFS tried to show something on March 6...    FV3 still shows a signal for March 4/5, but it is weaker with less QPF for our area.

I see the 12Z FV3 had it back...  at 00Z or 06Z it was gone.  

We will see!

So much for the March 4/5 threat.  Looks like it has fizzled. 

FV3 still showing something for NC around the March 4/5 time frame.   GFS is not.

March has produced more snow (in inches) at RDU than December... . since 1948 or so.

Just now, FallsLake said:

Yeah, as jjwxman said this will be a minor event. If we get some light glaze on the car tops it's a win. At least we had something to track. Been such a boring winter after the December storm. 

Agreed.  Looks like northern wake has the best shot of anything.  I could see a special weather statement for Wake, but not advisory.

Advisories issues as far east as Durham county.  RAH mentions possibility of very light accrual on elevated surfaces maybe to Raleigh.