PackGrad05

This is the craziest thing I've seen.  (well, not really since I've lived in central NC my whole life).  
Local meteorologists must be going crazy....  
You also have to remember that most of these model outputs assume 10:1 and combine sleet/snow, etc...  
Looking at soundings, it really doesn't cool off enough until the end, and then barely if that.  

1Z NAM looks decent, but 3K NAM says nope...  
HRRR is a mix between the two.  The end of the run is 12Z on Thursday and most of precip will be done by then anyway.

Depending on temperatures/dew points, saturday/sunday event could be an in-situ damming

the 6z NAM was a little juicer than 3K NAM, but both seemed to jump south...  Still just having a hard time buying it with the cold chasing moisture scenario at the end of this system.  Unless there is some banding at the end.  

0Z NAM shows some token flakes and maybe a trace of snow across central NC on the tail end of the system Thursday morning.  Cold chasing moisture though.  3K gives northern wake almost an inch.

The 18Z GFS was trying to show something for Feb. 7.  Low off the coast and high pressure in a somewhat favorable position, but weak 1030

If the NAM verifies with the wedge tomorrow and temperatures in northern/central NC don't get quite as high as originally predicted, that would bode better for temperatures cooling off quicker wednesday night 

Matter of fact, the PARA increased snowfall over central NC from the last run.

GFS definitely trending in the right direciton.

WRAL showing a 15% chance of 1" of snow for Wake.  (They just relabeled the map and it is Euro Ensemble output)

The 0Z NAM was a decent track, but not cold enough except for NE NC on the back end...  

I'm waiting for the 00Z NAM to finish loading.

The high temperature forecast for Tuesday is going to be really difficult for RDU...  Weak CAD signature showing up on NAM...  could be a huge temp difference across the area.  

4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

NAM is by far the coldest model at the surface 

Yep, much better L placement for central NC.  The weenie in me doesn't want to let it go even though it looks like rain for us.

What did EPS look like?

Still don't think it is quite *over* for Wake.  UKMET showed trace - 1 inch for wake.    GFS Para showed 1-2".    Almost 1/2 of the EPS ensembles showed something.  
I want to see 12Z ECMWF and EPS

6 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

The GFSv16 is being nicer to me that the old PoS GFS.

Yes it is a good bit more south than standard GFS..  Gives Wake 1-2" across the board.

12Z GFS is still a no go except extreme NE NC toward the end..  Even a lot of virginia is all rain.  

@_jwall on twitter posted the EPS 6Z ensembles.  Roughly 20-22 out of 50 (based on estimation of geography) showed snow/mix for Wake County Thursday morning.  

12Z NAM showing a heck of a temperature gradient over central NC on Tuesday with a weak CAD signature.  70s sandhills/south and 40s/50s to the north.

Meanwhile, I'm interested in seeing what the NAM shows.  It will begin coming into range today.
Temperature wise, showing a weak CAD for Tuesday that could end up keeping those really warm temps away.  

I still think it's a little premature to rule Wake County out..   all the globals showed *something* for Wake except GFS pretty much...  The next two runs will be key.

14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It is over for NC. It will be the usual crap, 38F-42F and rain.

Is that prediction based on the 6Z suite or do you see updated info somewhere?

Trends not looking great..  I blame La Nina for not getting any major cold air pushes...  Our cold air surges after a storm with the northerly flow, and then recovers back up to seasonal, which just isn't getting it done...  

We need a system like this to move through and set the stage and then another one to take a favorable track right on its heels.
We need arctic cold already in place or temperatures/dew points cold enough for the storm to generate its own cold air with wet bulb..  Neither looks possible (for now) with this system.

Temperature are the limiting factor here...  Antecedent temperatures do not look great at all.    We just haven't had a strong cold push all season.    *IF* this pans out for central NC, it'll be another case of flake watching with marginal temps and mostly rain.