PackGrad05

I would put a lot more weight on the short-range high-res models at this point than globals.  

SREF mean increased for RDU...but QPF is still only 1 or 2 tenths..  very light.  

This will be a really interesting event to watch.  Quick hitting front.  I'm not really expecting to see any snow down in southern wake...  maybe a few flakes mixed in toward the end of the precip shield.  

the high-res NAM seems to have slowed down the frontal passage for central NC by 1-3 hours.  The only thing this really affects is the amount of time the moisture has to evaporate before freezing for the morning.  

2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Yes it was a joke.  I've never been very good at it.  I guess I'm pretty bad at it in person as well as on the keyboard. 

TW

haha sorry!  I should've picked up on the sarcasm.

No, freezing rain is when the rain freezes on contact.

This will be a freeze of whatever puddles are still around.

I wonder if Wake will get a watch or advisory out of this for Tuesday night and/or black ice on Wednesday morning.

Can't catch a break in southern Wake.  Why is there such a sharp cutoff of the precip south of 40?  Is this because of the temperature and only those areas are cold enough to support snow?

I just noticed the roads are brined in Fuquay, Angier, Willow Spring as well!

3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Also gives a full day of heating!

True, but timing of precip coming in after dark works in our favor.  We are pretty much grasping at straws at this point...but at least it is something to watch.

Looks like most of the models, including hi-res nam shows the precip coming through around 7-10PM Tuesday evening.  Limited amounts of QPF..maybe some convective bursts.. 
If it comes through that early, that will also give a lot of time for drying before it can freeze on roads.  May have some residual slick spots here and there Wednesday morning.

Is the reason those maps look so dry for central NC because it doesn't go out far enough yet?  

What's the latest trends for Sunday night/Monday?  I know the last EPS had 7/51 with snow for RDU.

Still a lot to watch, but this is the type of thing that I felt would happen in this type of pattern.  Not a long range storm to track, but things that pop up and "surprise" us within 3-4 days.

Another thing to keep in mind are soil temps.  ( I know, I know....)

Highs will be in the 50s next week...  nightly lows will help.  I just don't like rain changing to snow situations...  Ground gets all wet and saturated and snow has a hard time sticking.

At least tomorrow is something to watch.  It will be interesting to see if trends increase for a little frozen drizzle for RDU area...

The temperatures for central NC look way too warm next weekend/Monday.  Highs in 40s?  

Euro doesn't look great for Raleigh.  I'd like to see those amounts move east.

Those maps don't look great for central NC.  Looks like the event favors more NW NC and mountains again.

Looks like a cold rain for southeast wake...  must be accurate!  haha.  

In all seriousness I wish we could get the cold air to stabilize and stick around so we don't have marginal events for triangle.

This is the type of pattern where a storm pops up and we only have 3-5 days to really track it.  I prefer those because then I don't get hooked into it for 7-10 days.

Temperatures on latest model runs have backed off extremes...  More marginal and close to freezing.

We just don't get big snows in NC with very cold air.    Often times, the cold air has to be right at freezing or marginal so that the storms aren't suppressed all the way down south.

9 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

That would be a quick turnaround with a forecast high of 60 on Saturday!

Often times, cold air masses are proceeded by a strong front and the day before is characterized by a strong southerly flow moving CCW around the low bringing in warm air.  

January 20 looks like something to watch, but the temperatures are still marginal.  January 19 looks like we get a stiff southerly wind bringing in warm air ahead of the cold air mass.  I don't like the cold chasing moisture scenario.  Seems like it worked out in our favor last year or 2 years ago.  I remember Brad P saying there was noway we got snow out of that type of system, but then it evolved and we ended up getting something.

Then it does look like the pattern turns super cold.  We will see if it stays that way.