PackGrad05

Once again..  all models are wrong, some are useful.  
It is very rare to get a 6+ snowfall here in central NC.  In my opinion, the models are trending toward a more climatological solution.  A 1-2" event would still be a win for our area.  
Really the only thing that changed was the QPF.  We will see what the next run brings.

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

CMC coming in even more supressed...

Than what.  Other models, its last run, ?

Yeah I don't get the doom and gloom either.  A decent snow for Wake County is anything over an inch.  That's just reality.  This system is still shaping up to be a nice system, especially with temperatures, preceding soil temps, etc... 
Snow sticking will not be an issue so I don't think we lose anything to melting.  

The triangle is still looking good.  I'd be completely happy with 1" of snow that we can at least go out in and kids can play in.  

How's the saying go...  To get the heaviest snow you gotta be able to smell the rain sleet.

12 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

ugh, that Wake county gradient.  Is it done at 84?

haha, Yes!  I live in that part of southern wake that is blanked on the snow map!  can't make it up.  I need to move to Roxboro or Wake Forest.  

Gonna be such a tight snow/sleet line.  I think it shifts more north.

One run isn't a trend really..  Gotta keep watching.  For those with access to the ECMWF, what in the synoptics changed?

Kat Campbell says their 3D model is showing a warm nose despite the very cold surface temps.

WRAL's futurecast high res shows nothing Thursday night but mixed precip starting Friday morning.  Mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain according to their current forecast.
Points out european being more robust but american showing another round saturday.

WRAL first call map

I'd be weary of the NE trend in this situation.  We need to see the precipitation blossom as the low rides the coast, and not wait until it's in NE NC/SE VA to do it.

Allan Huffman says he has a hunch this will be a typical NE NC / SE VA system.  

This is why it is so hard in central NC. You have to thread the needle.   Too strong of a system and too far west, you get ice/rain like last weekend.  Too weak or too far east, the precip stays at the coast.  

Pretty much every EPS member from that graphic is an I-85 special, very similar looking to the last system.  
The southeast fringe of almost every graphic is likely a wintry mix.    Not looking great for Raleigh at the moment for snow.

The trends, at the current moment, are not good for central NC.  Looks almost identical to the recent system.

Mike Maze and WRAL posted something about it and shared the euro ensemble forecast.  
like someone mentioned earlier, they love and put a lot of stock in the euro ensemble.   

My forecast for Wake County, particularly southern Wake.  
 

3 minutes ago, Snowacane said:

The best storms in the Triangle over the past 20+ years have been the ones that were not forecasted. I'll never forget Fish in the early 2000's saying that we were looking down the barrel of a gun and we were supposed to have over a foot. Next day was clear and sunny.

It does seem that way.  Was that the one where he had to jump in the fountain because he lost the bet?

 

It is all about the mid-levels with this system.  Way too warm for snow for most, except at very beginning.

That sounding RDU from NAM appears to show the area below freezing for longer than anticipated.  Not good for ice.  

WRAL says power outage potential is LOW for wake.   Hope it stays that way.  
Their futurecast shows freezing rain for Raleigh until 12pm and then everything melts. 

Just now, eyewall said:

For Raleigh that will be Brief snow/sleet-->Ice-->Rain-->Dryslot-->Missed by the wrap around deform band to the NW

which one dominates?

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Gives some sense of where the freezing line may end up at it's warmest, although I suspect you could shift it west about 50 miles

Looks like anything in Wake would have a good opportunity to melt before nightfall and re-freeze.

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Awful run for us in Raleigh. Any wintry precip definitely goes to rain in that scenario. I think the fat lady is warming up.

I agree it ends at rain, but by that time the damage is done with potential heavy ice....

WRAL'S FUTURECAST OUTPUT:   Shows the LOW tracking directly over CLT.

https://twitter.com/WRALweathergal/status/1481678789562220546?s=20