PackGrad05

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Lol, 3 days out?

I think that's a smart move.  You can cover more roads and there is no threat of rain (small tonight) to really wash it away.

So the NAM is showing no snow at all for central NC.

23 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It definitely is looking more and more like it will be shite for the RDU area. I think it is time to check out of this one. Enjoy to those that get it.

It still looks like a major winter storm for our area, unless you are just looking for only snow....

Wow.  If Wake County goes from a potential for snow to temperatures in the 50s/60s, there will be a lot of confidence lost in forecasting...  
That's the problem with so many models/graphics/etc... being publicly available online and shared so much.  Folks buy in to one model solution way too soon.

Hard to keep up with the rapid pace of the thread.  Which way did the GFS trend?  Can someone post a comparison?

Fishel still posts updates on his Facebook page!  
Here is his update from 2PM today:

Quote

ONE OF MY WEATHER MENTORS ONCE TOLD ME, I’D RATHER BE RIGHT THAN FIRST!

I’ll never be the first to address a snow threat, because I know that if something looks good 5-7 days out, more than likely that’s the scenario that will not occur. The global models are all over the place today, but one trend is clear-overall a warmer solution. and the upper air features don’t look as promising. And there will likely be many more changes between now and the weekend. Bottom line, sit back and relax. We got a long way to go on this one baby. Perfect prognostication will have to wait a few days lol.

17 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Also funny that the ops have come in worse today but WRAL has been increasing the talk more today about snow here.

They've chosen their words carefully...   They keep saying, slower, more moisture, and more "winter" impact...  They have mentioned it will likely be a mix.

However, they love sharing those graphics with the "probability" of certain amounts direct from the ensembles.

That WRAL graphic is from the “European ensembles which is one of their exclusive products”.   I’m surprised they are even showing that much. When Fishel was the chief they were much more conservative until 2-3 days out.  

Brad Panovich just did an Instagram Live with Jim Cantore riding on a ski lift in Lake Tahoe...what a legend haha

They were talking about the storm and both Brad and Jim seemed to favor a very icy solution with someone getting lucky with the snow jackpot as it pivots around.

The OP runs are definitely amped.  Ensembles best to look at.

We are focused on snow, but even central NC would get sleet/ice with the cold surface temps (if the wedge is as strong as forecasted).  

4 minutes ago, 85snowline said:

Can you imagine all the meteorologist from N.Alabama, N.Ga, SC Upstate, and all of NC are already beating their heads against the wall. 

Wonder when Brad Panovich will post something???

Last I saw, he was posting from Lake Tahoe!  

Just now, RT1980 said:

Angier?  I grew up close in Coats.

Willow Spring about 5 miles north of Angier.

Love those snow maps being posted but I don't like that Wake gradient!  I'm in the southern tip!  

Fun to have stuff to track, though.

12Z GFS shows a couple close calls over the next week or so...  
Plenty of time to reel something in.

Fantasy land is fun to look at, but I'm only going to focus within 7 days.  As of now, Thursday night is the only thing within 7 days worth watching, IMO.

4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I think the 13th to the 20th period is looking very promising. 

Without looking at records, I'd wager that time period is the "snowiest" for our region.

Seems like MLK weekend and days before/after are always good ones for snow chances.  

WRAL's future cast is showing a mix or snow flurries in NC northern counties...  Wouldn't take much for it to come south.

Their future cast model is based on the Baron model.

24 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Euro 

 

What do the trends look like with this?  

Latest HRRR (02Z) and GFS still give wake 1-2 inches worth with the deformation band.  I'll take it, even if it all melts on contact.

18z 3k NAM was juicier for central NC.  

I agree with that.  They basically are waiting for more data before a WWA.

9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

NWS Raleigh has removed any mention of snow for the Raleigh zones now.

That's very surprising...especially since model consensus, including short-range hires models, show at least a 2-3 hour period of snow.  
I wouldn't even be surprised to see a winter weather advisory.

18z hrrr looks better for Wake.  
I think we get a good burst of snow for 1-2 hours

Even the GFS ensembles still try to show Wake a little love.  It could shift back south a little.  The NW trends seemed extreme.