PackGrad05

SREF Link

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Just now coming into range.

Definitely a westward trend.  The good thing is we still have a few days.  

Here are the 18Z EPS and GEFS probabilities of 1" of snowfall.

The placement of the low looks good on the NAM to me.

3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

1" of snow (fall) that will add up to precisely zero on the ground.  We had a similar event here in the triad a few years ago but the date escapes me.  Snowed hard all afternoon and got nothing but some white mulch.  

East of 52 and south of 40 is in hail mary land.  The ball is long enough, high enough but is likely going to be batted down at the last second.  

I'm putting down the pre-emergent tomorrow.  Might as well be purposeful.

Correct.  I looked at snowfall, not snow depth.

But the way this season has been, I'd love to see a snow fall, even if it doesn't stick!

The probability of 1" or greater improved on both the GEFS and EPS (12Z) as compared to previous runs...for most of central NC.

Still low, but good trends.

GFS isn't good for Raleigh, but there is still time...  and I'm waiting on the GEFS too.  

00Z EPS still has a decent chance, but not as good as yesterday's 12Z run.
Does anyone know how to view the 06Z EPS on weathermodels.com?  I have premium.

06Z GEFS trended in the right direction also and shows a greater chance.

Neither is a slam dunk of course...  at least it is something to track for once.

As others have mentioned, the 12Z EPS is showing 24 members with something for RDU.    That is up from 4 for the 00Z cycle.

GEFS also more on board.

48 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I believe I saw this is the first time RDU will be blanked since 2005-06.

I thought RDU already accorded a trace, which counts.

The 00Z EPS rebounded quite a bit from yesterdays 12Z. 25/50 members showing something vs 5/50 last night.
GEFS not on board as much.


.

12Z EPS decreased a good bit from 00Z, but not a complete wash.

12Z GEFS is still showing a good thump of snow around 2/3.  With perhaps more around 2/8-2/10.

12Z EPS looks pretty much the same as 0Z for central NC.  1" of snow is the mean.  

12Z GEFS is just as good, if not better.

The good thing is both the GEFS and EPS show "some" snow for central NC in the first week of Feb time frame.

EPS still looks interesting between 2/3 and 2/6.  Members all over the place.  

EPS has a good number of members showing something around Feb. 5 as well.  

I've said it before, but I think we will end up with an event that pops up within the 5-7 day range suddenly and is marginal (as always) but is a surprise.  It'll probably be sandwiched between two warm-ups.  That's typically the NC way in these types of patterns.

The EPS has been signaling an unsettled pattern for 25-30 time period for a while now, as I mentioned on the last couple pages.  

EPS still has "activity" around 27-30 timeframe...something to watch at least.

EPS still looks interesting for the 1/25-1/26 time period.

And tonight's "flurry" event is a perfect example of how quickly things can change.  I know it isn't really a big deal, but it only popped up in the past 1-2 days.  
 

The 12Z EPS still had some members showing snow for RDU around 24/25.  

We don't need extended cold around here.  We just need the cold and moisture to sync up at the right time.  

Most of the recent snows in central NC have barely stuck to the roads (if at all) and were melted off the grass by the next day or two.  

The 23/24 time period looks like it could be worth watching.  EPS and GEFS both show some members with some snow for NC.  Way out I know, but the only thing even remotely interesting over next 2 weeks unless something random pops up.

Climatologically, February is not that far off from January for RDU in amount of snow.  

Yes, January is the best chance, but February has produced great events.  Once we get to February 20 is when I start getting more concerned.

Being completely blanked is still on the table for sure.  But so is getting a 10" storm.

It was fun while it lasted, unless trends boomerang back the other direction.
EPS reduced probabilities dramatically...  Less than 10 members showing anything (trace or so) for RDU.