PackGrad05

EPS really likes the Feb 5-9 time period

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS still has the storm around the 5th. Not as impressive as the 6z but will be something to watch.

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Last 2 runs of EPS also show snow around that time period...  at least about 10/50 members

6z GFS has three opportunities. Fun to see. May be gone by 12Z.


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35 minutes ago, eyewall said:

And it's gone.

Worth mentioning that the 00Z EPS showed zilch for that time period.  However, the 12Z actually had a few members show something...
Grasping at straws, but at least something to watch...until dreams are crushed again.

The EPS and other models only show 4 "warm" days out of the next two weeks.  The rest of the days are pretty seasonal for this time of year.

January 29/30 isn't far from something, either.

I disagree with the the February hate.  

Over the past 30 years, RDU has averaged 2.7" of snow per January.  If you take out the 1999-2000 outlier (25"), the average is much lower.

Over the same 30 years, RDU has averaged 1.4" of snow per February. 

Not all that different in the grand scheme of things.  Once we get to March, I agree that we are toast.

Quiet around here.  Big arctic push into the US looks likely in next 10 days...  Not sure it ever really penetrates this far to the southeast though.

QPF in the southeast is off the charts over the next 10 days.  Unfortunately, it isn't cold enough.  Average or slightly below average temperatures (except for Tuesday 7/9), but that doesn't cut it for snow.  

The latest EURO, GFS, and their ensembles restrict this to the mountains outside of some novelty flakes in the foothills.    Really good agreement between all of them.

4 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

18Z GFS coming in 4-5 degrees colder during the 7th storm. upper 30's and rain for most of the board, with snow confined to basically I40 North. 

Overall better than the 12Z run, and VERY close to showing something more exciting.

Meanwhile both EPS and GEFS have backed off probabilities.  Both showing less than 15% chance of 1" of snow for central NC.  
ECMWF control run shows zilch.

Both GEFS and EPS currently show approximately 10-20% chance of 1" of snow for central NC over next 10 days.

When you change it to a trace, it is roughly 20-30% chance.

Current EPS shows 20% chance of at least 1" of snow for central NC over next 15 days.

The January 1-5 timeframe is definitely worth watching.  GFS has been on and off with a system for NC. 

EPS has some members showing something, and GEFS is starting to pick up on it also.

Need a stronger high to move that further to central NC.

HRRR wants to pop some convective cells after dark...primarily east of 95 but Wake and central NC should keep an eye on it also.

GFS has been east of other guidance for a few runs now.  

24 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Latest run now keeps the low off the coast completely

Latest run of what?  

Central NC would be rain.  The track is too far inland.  Western NC would be sitting pretty.  

Latest HRRR shows 2-3" widespread for central NC.  Also shows the deformation band pivoting through Monday morning.  Winds have died down which is a good thing.

By "well inland", do you mean west of 95?  

The latest Euro and GFS still show a good dose of rain for central NC (2-3 inches) and gusty winds.

Sustained cold is nice, but it really only takes a good shot of cold air to time up right with some moisture.  That's about as good as you can ask for around here.  

That anomaly map isn't that dire.  4-6 degrees above average this time of year is highs in mid-to-upper 50s.  With lows in 30s and 40s at night that's fine by me.  Far from a torch.

Besides this saturday/sunday, the next 10-15 days look below normal.  

We always focus on the above normal temps but never give the below normal temps much attention....unless there is something frozen with them.

A long way out but the EPS has had something the last 3 model runs around the 29/30 time period...  snow perhaps.

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m beginning to think this one might become quite interesting for us NC folks

What's ironic is that it will have more of an impact that then remnants of the one a few weeks ago.  The difference it that it doesn't come with all the "hype" that the other one did.

The 18Z 3K NAM has gusts of 50-60 over central NC Saturday morning.  

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Zero hits. 

Way more spread than 00Z members.  Lots of uncertainty.