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Blizzwalker

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Everything posted by Blizzwalker

  1. Blizzwalker
    Yes- i have also seen the larger flakes today. Was referring to all day yesterday until around midnite. All I saw was granules for many hrs-- ok, not 24, but we waited a longer time for flakes than most in the forum
  2. Blizzwalker
    Nice to get snow with actual Dendrites attached here in Middletown. Was getting tired of 24 hrs of micro-granules
  3. Blizzwalker
    Just w of Middletown -- getting a light burst of .01 mm non-dendritic granules. Not what I had hoped for but trying to appreciate it....
  4. Blizzwalker
    That nws event total map is 6 hrs old- from 4 PM. Hope next such map does not lower amounts
  5. Blizzwalker
    I was wondering more about the track of the storm as opposed to the intrusion of a warm layer. ( I know the more N track can lead to warming).
  6. Blizzwalker
    Multiple storms have recently shown a modest NW shift late in the game. Are there reasons making such a shift less likely with this storm tomorrow?
  7. Blizzwalker
    Yes, understood. But it is not just lower amounts with noaa total event map--- it is reverse gradient. Noaa had more snow NW, Nam had more snow SE
  8. Blizzwalker
    Nam has 5 inches for nw Orange co but 8 for city at 57 hrs. Noaa has 7 inches on their "event total" for nw Orange co and less as u go SE toward city. Why would that be ? Because it is Nam beyond 48 hrs ?
  9. Blizzwalker
    Substantial glaze over everything and I see trees branches and shrubs weighted down with ice. Relatively little loss of snowpack so far. Looks like at least .2 ice but just guessing. I'd say NOAA forecast was correct for up here.
  10. Blizzwalker
    Why does a storm being more amped (stronger/ further north/warmer) cause a storm soon after to be colder/ southeast ? I have heard multiple posters state that they hope the Tuesday storm is more amped so the Thursday storm will have a more southeastern ( snowier) track.
  11. Blizzwalker
    I understand there are verification scores used to compare predictive accuracy of models. I am wondering if there is data that looks at the relationship between time until storm event and the predicted placement of storm track vs the actual storm track (or placement of low pressure). So the GFS vs NAM vs EURO, etc would be compared at 8 days, 5 days, 3 days, etc in their predicted track for a given event. At each point in time, you would note the difference in mileage (20,50,100, etc) between the forecasted track and what verified as actual. Of course as the time until the event became less, you would expect less of a discrepancy...think somebody asked something similar a few weeks ago. Does anything like this exist ? I am not familiar with verification scores-- maybe that is part of the process of generating them ?
  12. Blizzwalker
    About 3 inches just west of Middletown. Snowing moderately. Looks like the forecast for here will verify-- we take the crystallized water we are granted
  13. Blizzwalker
    Dont post much but this winter has me out more enjoying the parade of storms. Below are snow squalls over the Burroughs range in the Catskills (taken from Sam's Point Preserve).
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