Yeoman

Yeah I don't get it.. I mean if fantasy day 16 storms don't pan out in late March when will it? Clearly it has under done the freezing rain threat for DC.

2026 weenie term of the year award by a landslide

He was formerly teninchjohnson

Speaking of investing your time wisely, all of those words boil down to this: Long-range forecasting is valuable for identifying threat windows in advance, but it’s useless for details, making you dumb to expect day 10+ guidance to behave like a near-term forecast.

Right mouse button finally fall off?

You’re assuming a clean, immediate pattern flip that the guidance doesn’t actually show. Cold erosion is gradual, downstream response lags the Pacific, and a strong NPAC ridge doesn’t guarantee East Coast warmth without a confirmed height rise, which isn’t locked in yet.

That take assumes the Pacific immediately overwhelms everything downstream, which isn’t how these transitions usually work. A strong NPAC ridge doesn’t automatically squash an EC trough, especially with lingering -AO influence and a trough tucked under higher-latitude ridging. Neutral NAO doesn’t equal warm rain by default. At this range, ensembles are smoothing over key timing and structural details, so declaring this dead based on a broad Pacific signal seems dumb.

Looking good in Edgewater! Must have skipped right over DC

Nevermind the fact it's 14 days away.. good lord people

Quite a few control freaks in this thread. Best not fret over something that is entirely unpredictable and will always be..

Norfolk is part of Northern VA as much as it sits on the Pacific Ocean.

Well that settles it

1/25/2000 - never forget

The GFS showed essentially the same thing for a few straight runs on Fri and then lost it.

posts in an obs thread but doesn't bother adding location