Drz1111

If I were chasing I'd head right near the border where the front is hanging up. Probably on the north slope of the Adiorondacks. Plattsburgh would normally be my target but I think an SE wind off of Champlain isn't likely to be buoyant this time of year, which could create a microscale hindrance to tornado formation near Champlain.

TBF more westerly than god knows how many threats over the last few years.

Going to be a bit breezy for the chasers out there today with all those inverted-V soundings

Plenty of video of a tornado corresponding with that TDS. Score one for dual-pol.

Looks to be a TDS with the warned circulation just west of Fort Walton Beach?

Parameters are certainly favorable for low-topped supercells with strong low-level mesos. And the offshore activity is, if anything, even more robust than what’s on land. Bit of a forecast whiff, but it happens.

No posts on what looks to be an cute little severe event this afternoon on the llano estacado? CAMs are pretty enthusiastic about generating some supercells that should be surface-based for at least a couple of hours until they outrun the best surface instability and evolve into elevated clusters. Not like there's going to be a huge tornado outbreak or anything, but its better than nothing . . .

Isn't this a perfectly adequate look for MJJ severe in the Northern Plains?

I don't have access to good Euro data, but eyeballing it based on public stuff it looks like there's a pretty big difference between the Euro and the GFS in terms of whether Friday is a viable chase day.

seems like both the Euro and GFS are seeing some troughiness out west at day 10? I can buy it - there's strong support for low heights in the Maritimes and with the wavelengths this time of year that's not inconsistent with something coming out of the four corners. We shall see.

I think the triple point back in TX looks kind of interesting. Might stay out of the hair of the MCS and has access to some juicy, highly unstable air.

Looks to me like a strong cat 2, might be done intensifying due to dry air downsloping off of the coastal mountains of Vietnam. Either way, an unusually strong storm for that stretch of coast line, normally they get shells that have been shredded by earlier landfalls.

That looks like a typical JTWC "tropical storm" bearing down on Vietnam.

Especially since it took forever to detach from that trough. Sloppy rainmaker typhoon.

I think the ll vortex is jumping to the coast b/c of the lee cyclogensis.

This post is an excellent lessons as to why you don't blackbox interpret products you don't understand.

Hurricanes can influence earthquakes - but not a 50km deep quake like what just hit Mexico City. That quake was likely triggered by the quake 'upstream' in the subducting slab several days ago, which might have increased strain deeper down and also weakened the fault.

Kingston actually reasonably protected from hits from the west by the blue mountains, which tends both to weaken approaching storms and deflect them (remember Ivan), and though elevations lower, has plenty of land to the east for late-season west carib cyclones. It's vulnerable to a hit straight from the south, but that's an unusual track likely requiring a very late season storm. One day it'll take one, but the odds are pretty low in any given year. San Juan is well-protected compared to say, Ponce, from the typical W-WNW CV track; it's most vulnerable to a storm deflecting WSW b/c of a super strong WAR. Again, possible, but relatively uncommon. Also helps that the water WNW from San Juan generally has a bit less TCHP than the water in the Caribbean or north of Hispanola.

Keep in mind that protection from cyclones is in fact one of the reasons that San Juan is located where it is. Particularly in the colonial era, protection from cyclones was critically important, so most Caribbean / SE Asia capitals are on the leeward side of their respective islands or otherwise protected from the usual cyclone track (the great exception is Santo Domingo, which is overdue for a big hit).

The windward side of Dominica is home to what's essentially an Indian reservation for the last Caribs, the indigenous people of the windwards before colonization. There's only a few thousand of them, but they're dirt poor, their housing is crap, and they just ate a cat 5. Hope things aren't as bad there as I fear.

Yeah, I think that unless you're going to a desert (or semi-desert), booking travel to a specific 'spot' for an eclipse is an extremely high-risk idea. Better to target a region where you have good mobility within the totality stripe and then make a decision night before as to where you'll be targeting. Not entirely unlike storm chasing. I planned my entire trip within 10 days of the eclipse and had a near-perfect experience. A colleague of mine booked some special camping thing a year in advance and got clouded out. Really, you're 'clear skies' chasing, not eclipse chasing.

I flew into Des Moines, with a return flight scheduled from Omaha, intending to target south of Lincoln. about 5 days ago, it became clear that was a high risk idea. I changed my return flight to Denver and changed my target zone to Grand Island. about 2 days ago, it became clear that wasn't going to work either. Luckily, a hotel opened up in Gothenburg, about 25 minutes east of North Platte. Yesterday, it became clear I was too far east. So I woke up at 4:45 and bolted west. I ended up north of Torrington, WY...and it was SPECTACULAR. Found an elevated bluff on open prairie and could see 20 miles away in every direction but North. Not a cloud in the sky. Perfect, perfect conditions. A steep temperature drop during totality. Gorgeous. Then, while waiting for traffic to clear, I bagged Medicine Bow Peak, which was always on my list. It was a very good day.

Looks to be some tornados ongoing now. LLJ FTW.

This. The cells look starved both of moisture and low-level vorticity.

Man, the HRRR loves that SE NM / West Texas zone around dusk, when the SE low level flow amps up. SPC seeing it too, of course, but that's a pretty interesting setup.