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Drz1111

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Everything posted by Drz1111

  1. Drz1111
    Deep layer shear isn't terrible tomorrow, might see some organization and severe wind. Obviously tons of moisture and good low-level lapse rates. Should be a stormy day.
  2. Drz1111
    3” of rain in a month is dryish? OK bro.
  3. Drz1111
    The Newark terminal radar showed a perfect wet downburst - just classic!
  4. Drz1111
    The cells currently popping over NYC are raining on their own updrafts, FWIW. Think we need the better bulk shear to arrive before we get severe stuff.
  5. Drz1111
    ILS 13 approach into LGA tonight. Tells you how soupy it is out there.
  6. Drz1111
    If it were me I’d warn that right-mover sup passing through central jersey.
  7. Drz1111
    Its unlikely but I'd watch that storm in Newark for a quick spin-up. It's riding the collision of two OFBs and is showing broad rotation on radar.
  8. Drz1111
    Watching these pop-up cells from the roof of my building in Manhattan, there looks to be less shear than forecast. The cells are very vertical and look to be raining over their updrafts. Maybe that's why we haven't yet seen linear organization and why convective initiation was later than originally forecast. Updrafts are nice and robust, thought. Plenty of CAPE.
  9. Drz1111
    Finally starting to see some deeper towers over Manhattan. so it looks like we finally eroded away the CIN that was around earlier in the afternoon.
  10. Drz1111
    I mean 1000kj of CAPE and some leftover CIN at peak heating, compared to 2000kj of CAPE is such a big factor that it’s not fair to say the situations are comparable. We need some mid/upper support to come in from the west in order to convect.
  11. Drz1111
    Anything that pops on a sea breeze boundary will have ~9C/KM lapse rate to stretch vorticity with, deep moisture, and some low-level spin. Tube time.
  12. Drz1111
    Parameters for tomorrow are rather favorable for landspouts if we can get any isolated development instead of line after line.
  13. Drz1111
    That's a good sign for tornadoes. You're not yet at peak heating. Fewer early storms means more CAPE when they do go off and cleaner storm mode.
  14. Drz1111
    Yup. Mesonet shows front sagging.
  15. Drz1111
    Mean storm motion 240 at 35kts? Spicy, and consistent with modeling for the last day or so. Not much margin for error chasing today.
  16. Drz1111
    The 1600Z sounding from Childress TX just shared on twitter shows basically no cap left and off the charts on every metric that you'd give a shit about. And it's an ACTUAL sounding. I've never seen anything like it.
  17. Drz1111
    I don't agree with that - that's an oversimplification when all these boundaries are interacting.
  18. Drz1111
    I don't think that's right. Its more like an outflow boundary or something. Dew is at 64 in OKC.
  19. Drz1111
    Have you looked at the 12Z soundings?
  20. Drz1111
    my wife vetoed today and I'm not entirely unhappy about that, my weather geekiness would've gotten the better of my safety. And as a inexperienced chase I would've targeted dryline. OK with 500M LCLs and 45kt storm motions? noooope nope nope nope
  21. Drz1111
    Well when you’re wrong youre wrong. Batten down the hatches boys.
  22. Drz1111
    That might be an TOG near Dover PA. Small tightening couplet.
  23. Drz1111
    Yep. There’s decent 0-1KM SRH for the cells to digest; just basically unidirectional flow above 850 with no speed shear.
  24. Drz1111
    Eh I was too negative. That storm north of Scranton is clearly a supercell. Still think these storms aren’t unlikely to organize into a line without deep shear.
  25. Drz1111
    Meh. Lots of CAPE because of the relict EML but weak deep shear down at our latitude. Multicell crap. Wouldn’t get your hopes up.
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