Drz1111

Cool, but you have issues with language and I'm clarifying for the people in the thread who don't.

bluewave you seem like a bright guy so offering this up more so you know in the future. 'climate normals' is a term of art and is different from 'normal'. 'climate normal' is just a synonym for "average" or "arithmetic mean", but applied to a specific period of time. Generally in climatology when we speak of "normal" in the sense you're using it, we mean conditions that are within 1STDEV of the mean (most climate statistics in most locations are roughly normally distributed, so this conceptually works). In other words, it is common for NY to have below average snow, or above average snow, but still within the "normal" range. A year like 1997-1998, on the other hand, was both below average and not normal. I am aware meterologists use below normal as a shorthand for below average b/c of the NWS terminology and to make it easier to communicate to the public, but it's not a rigorous way to describe it and tends to blur the difference between events that are extraordinary and events that are typical.

That's not what "normal" means.

What is crazy about the bitching on this thread is that six of the last 20 years have had less snow, YTD, than this year. We’re not even more than 1SD below the mean. This is, mathematically, a normal year, albeit below average.

Isn’t that a pretty good look for a pattern change? That’s the start of a disrupted polar vortex

Lol at the idea this is a bust and that VBV is relevant to what’s happening. It’s not summer and this isn’t the high plains.

Some of the more active updrafts seem to be "drilling down" through the inversion. IIRC there's a case study of that from an upper Midwest outbreak several years ago where conditions were otherwise quite favorable

Totally disagree with this. Cool season setups with tons of low-level shear can produce strong tornadoes even out of radar imagery that looks "ugly".

This strikes me as a warm-season plains chaser mindset, when this is a cool season Gulf Coast / Dixie Alley setup. "Widely visible tornadoes" isn't really relevant when storms are moving at warp speed and LCLs are scraping the ground.

Pretty neat that there's a legit EML for this one . . . could favor a more discrete storm mode than is typical for outbreaks this time of year.

It’s “reeks”, and if that’s the case, show your proof. Every guy posting forecasts on the internet, even guys with degrees, has their own set of pulled-out-of-their-ass model biases, and they’re mostly bullshit.

That model error has a direction based on index state. That’s just not true. The model already takes into account the upper air pattern in solving the math. The storm path is no more likely to drift south or north.

There’s no evidence to support your argument.

TDS west of philly.

Thank you for saying this. It’s a shame how moronic this board has gotten now that everyone with a pulse has migrated to twitter.

There was obvious low level rotation and strong rising motion into a low ceiling when I passed through that storm about 15 miles west of there on the way home from out East. Told my wife it might drop something as we drove by and she told me to keep my ****ing storm chasing to my storm chasing trips and to keep driving, buster.

the shear and lapse rates come in a bit too late for a really good event, no? 3 hrs earler and it would be something.

“Real” severe storm at the Battery in Manhattan. Branches blowing off trees and torrential rain. Second best storm of an active year.

One thing I do notice that's a negative is that the LL winds aren't as backed as forecast.

You're factually wrong. Look at the 12Z OKX sounding. The convective temp today is not very high.

This sounding is tasty. We're going to convect early. Also, continue to think SPC is understating shear around here.

I strongly disagree with this. Given good low level directional shear and mid-upper speed shear, any storms that stay discrete will have good chance of developing rotating updraft. NE is going to have more storm coverage but also more mergers and a quicker conversion to a linear mode. I think the tail-end cell has the best chance of producing significant severe, as opposed to the garden variety wind they’ll be getting up north.

Man, if anything popped in the sub tropics we are open for business in the midatlantic with the strong ridge in the north atlantic and the weakness over the lakes.

We gonna boom.

Severe tomorrow looks good. 0Z CAMs showing enough bulk shear to organize things, and oodles of CAPE by our standards. Heck, there’s enough low level shear that someone might see a spinny updraft.