osfan24
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Everything posted by osfan24
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But looking at just the BWI plume, for example, there are a few that are basically no snow, a couple with decent snow, and then pretty much 80 percent of them are below the mean, which is about a foot. So I'm not sure it's really being that skewed by the crazy high members when almost all members are pretty crazy high.
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Yeah, toss out a few of the ridiculous low totals and the mean is more like 16.
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Woah. Other thing that is interesting is that, other than a handful of low outputs, almost all of them are above the mean. That would be incredible.
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What is he seeing, exactly? I'm baffled by the hesitation. If you want to talk about sharp cutoffs, fine. But the GFS/CMC/Euro blended are nowhere remotely close to what he is saying. Good luck pinning your hopes to the Icon.
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I mean, I just don't understand some of the maps out there given this. I think the GFS is generally terrible but I have to admit it has been the clear leader with this storm. I'd hang my hat on a GFS/Euro blend with this one over the other models and take my chances.
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Hey, we will find out. That's what makes this fun. I just think it completely ignores the GFS, which has been leading the whole way, and the Euro, which are both much farther north. HRRR is still a bit out of range but the 7-10 area looks like it will be better suited for an ark than an igloo, but that's why he's a met and I'm just a weather fan!
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No, I was more looking at how much snow he has so far south. I'd be super worried about rain and mixing down that way.
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Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM.
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What south trend? There is no south trend. The NAMs went a bit south. No other guidance is doing that. Other guidance continues to shift north. Could it change? Sure. But I'm confused how there is a south trend right now.
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It appears that way. Very weird.
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Think you will do quite well. Would be surprised if this doesn't tick slightly farther NW over the next few runs.
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Appear to be a few KU's in that mix, mostly pretty isolated areas and confined to Southern MD and VA.
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Would like to see a better tilt on the snowfall output. Little too much east/west for my liking. But that was a really good run obviously. Hopefully, the Euro ups the ante.
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Yes, though one would think any shifts would start to become smaller from run-to-run. Loved that huge shift on the NAM. Might the GFS score a coup on this one? I'd have to eat some serious crow after I trashed it a couple days ago.
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I bet the next run of the NAM jumps far NW then as well. Seems like the SREF's always tell you what the next run of the NAM will do.
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Pretty decent shift on the Euro. I'll take a few more of those through midday tomorrow. Hopefully, it's playing catch-up with the GFS. If nothing else, this looks like either a nice hit or a painful miss here. Seems unlikely it's a complete southern slider now.
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Yeah I don't see the potential for it to be big. No blocking means it just zips along.
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Sure looks like it to me! Imagine what a slightly more negative tilt and a little more separation would do? If the GFS is right, we seem like very, very small moves from something quite significant.
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Running low on time for the kind of shift we need at this point.
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Just can't get it to climb at all. It's a killer it won't climb and wrap up a little. Just skirts ENE out to sea from OBX.
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Yeah, my bad. Was looking at 6z. It does look good. Probably a tad better than GFS.
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Yeah, even the NAM wants absolutely nothing to do with it. GFS and RGEM vs Euro, CMC, NAM. Hmmm.
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RGEM often seems as amped or more amped than the NAM. It's about as useful as the GFS.
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I agree, and I'd feel really good about where it sits on the GFS if it wasn't for the fact it's on an island by itself in both track and intensity.
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ICON and GFS vs. Euro and CMC. What could go wrong?
