jbenedet

34 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Weird latest HRRR has 6”+ there from 5pm on. But radar looks horrible up where you are. I think coating to an inch looks like it. Colossal fail for HRRR this entire system . Time to retire that model. 

Way too much of this white rain has been registering as snow on these algorithms. That’s the only reasonable explanation. 
 

Radar looks good in northern mid Atlantic but that’s decaying as it swings east, and the mid levels open back up.

Misconception to think that whole structure swings through tonight in that same state. It’s also going to speed up.

I feel like 2” is optimistic scenario here; and most likely outcome  is a coating. 

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

North Adams MA was 40!  wow  

and 

NEW HAVEN      CLOUDY    41  38  89 NE8G17    29.77F FOG

 

lol 

Plain rain.

occasional flake. 

37/35

Really warm in CT where dry slot has moved in. Temps approaching 40.

Wow.

Those areas that dry out are probably going to warm up to mid 30’s, before temps fall again in the evening 

Very early spring like.

I think part II is the focus for just about all except northern berks and southern VT, which cash in on both.

Part II will produce in most areas but she’s going to be racing east at that point, so expectations need to be low, especially with BL temps hovering at/just above freezing throughout.

BDL: 37/35

woof.

NAM just toying with snow weenies. 
 

Breaking their hearts.

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only problem is you now have the midlevel warm tongue moving north through CT now. Looks like it’s approaching Waterbury now.

Yea this is all effed down there.

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

1-4 in N ORH County?  Sell   I don't doubt the 2 areas of maxes though

Yea. I’m saying the general idea. I don’t like that for your specific area at all. 

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

that map looks exactly like this one for a different storm pick and choose lol

Kinda makes sense with that early H5 occlusion causing two qpf maxes, one west, the other east, later on Monday. Much less in between…

That early H5 occlusion gonna cause heartburn up until go time. 

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sun comes out for 5 mins. Temp climbs from 38 to 40. Goes overcast again. Temp drops back to 38. It’s Saturday…I’m not worried about a little diabatic warming. Let’s talk 2m temps tomorrow afternoon when we can actually see what BL wetbulbs advected down to.

It’s not just the sun man; be objective. 

 

Of course now all the detractors will think I’m saying dendriteland will have p-type/ratio issues tomorrow. No, I’m not…sorry guys…

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Doesn’t seem too far off from guidance so far. We’re getting some CAA aloft today so that may help dry it out and warm it up into the U30s. Pop a break or 2 and we hit some low 40s. It won’t mean much for the snow Sun night into Mon.

“It won’t mean much”

Please elaborate.

Everything matters at the margin.

Wasn’t it just yesterday that you guys got skunked on modeled snow that never came? 

5 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Outside of fake midnight highs,  nobody in NH came close to 40 yesterday but PSM 

What’s it like living in a bubble?

4 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Nobody in NH came close to 40 yesterday but PSM. 

I’m talking about today.
 

In regards to yesterday, 

Most of rockingham county, chief.

Even DAW hit  37/36 in heart of Strafford.
 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure where the idea of the NAM having a cold bias comes from...

Just paying attention to the last storm, and the one before that, and the one before that and…..

Oh yea… and we are already at the NAM’s progged highs for today…

40’s today. Feels, sounds and looks like very late march.

Short term guidance, again, lost.

18 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well well well. I actually agree with you on this one.

Damn I better reconsider my thoughts then….

I believe best chance for accums is Monday. 

NAM is warm verbatim and that’s with a cold bias.

These are dews folks; not surface temps….They are above freezing throughout the front end thump, and I don’t see this eroding quickly with 30 dews in Ontario and QC and a 1000 mb low…

Start time is also late morning, strongest push is 12 -3 pm for the front end thump. Normally wouldn’t mean much in late Jan, but every fractional degree counts with such warm BL temps and very limited dynamics.

LOL. South East Canada CP airmass vaporizing in 10 GFS runs.

Surprised to see low 40's into ALB. Warm sector making a much stronger push than guidance consensus.

ALB: 40/37

AQW: 39/33