jbenedet

GFS looked more like CMC mid levels. I do think this was a shift towards other guidance, just didn't show much in the latitude gain factor in terms of sensible weather. 

GFS is a lot slower than the EPS. 

It isn't at all buying an earlier phase, but a second vort in northern stream looks liable to hook up while over eastern conus. If not now, then in future runs.

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a note... the GFS is farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF

so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models is actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing

That look on the GFS doesn't fit anything really.

Not the MJO, not the teles; alone vs other guidance.

Sure it could be onto something, but odds are strongly against imo.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He likes to forecast the opposite of what everyone thinks and/or wants. Pretty predicatable.

That is an impossibility. 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty funny you lack reading comprehension. Literally not one person bought 0z gfs and is selling the 6z. We know exactly your call that no one outside of the NNE mountains will snow so we’ll see how it plays out. Make sure you come back at verification. 

Triggered.

and a liar. 
 

Had no idea I even made a call. lol.
 

Not only does the guy read minds, he makes up their mind for them.

Pretty funny seeing these SNE weenies wanting to sell the GFS at 6z after hugging it at 0z 

0z GEFS more phasing than the op.

18z EPS phasing > 0z GEFS

12z GFS and earlier runs were aligned with EPS and until 18z and 0z runs.

I’m a seller of the flat and weak look. The 0z canadian is OTL also. Different than GFS but doesn’t make sense.

I think the GFS lost the right idea from earlier today.

Sorry guys.

0z GEFS flaggin’ the shit out of the hang back idea of the southern stream vort.

0z GFS has a +NAO/+AO type evolution.
 

Doesn’t fit.

0z GFS was BS the way it hangs back the southern stream and doesn’t phase at all. Hard sell. The GEFS and EPS both look more amped out west with much earlier and cleaner phasing than the op.

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Still a lot of spread on the GEFS. Lots of amped coastal huggers but also still a ton of strung out whiffs. Snowfall mean and probs went way up due to the increase of a few big members in there.

For S&G's..

975/984 location right near PSM/PWM, is my bet at this point. And 975 good baseline in terms of intensity at that location.

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Still d6.  Keep that in mind.

Yeh; no kiddin'.

The teles scream amped solution. This one looks like poor timing in a good longwave pattern. 

The Northern stream looks like it will phase early, and cleanly with the southern stream over the central US. The southern stream vort is also amped, early on out west. The building PNA ridge allows the northern stream to drop right into the central plains. Kaboom.

I'm worried about warm sectoring into SE northern new england.  This thing is gonna crank. Too much of a good thing, for most.

Allow the multi-day torch to commence. 
 

Exceed average daily high by 10 am kinda day.

45 is a lock for PSM. 47 my bet. +12

I was driving through Andover MA this past weekend and saw a field of broccoli heads coming up. 

Had to triple take it….

That’s at least a month early.

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What I do love in the winter, especially now is my office room at home has east facing windows, and with the neighbor cutting down the two pine trees last year I get ample sunshine blasting in the room so it can be like 20 out and as long as it is sunny I get toasty. 

Yes that’s another good point. By this time of the year, for buildings/homes that get good sun, you’re def using less heat at 35 and full sun than 45 and clouds. And yea does a lot to improve your day to day sentiment in the heart of winter.

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

This sounds weird to say but I would almost rather have 30-35 and sunny over 45-50 and clouds. 

Not really. By feb, 35 and full sun is like 45 real feel; can even feel closer to 50 in city scapes, if wind is completely calm. 
 

Also does a lot to brighten things up—lower absolute humidity levels in winter and no vegetation maximize ISR in the biosphere, right at the surface. 

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I think we made it 2 pages without a snow map. Must be a record 

Only because the snow maps weren’t producing much at all for New England. 
 

Looks more like late November than early February. And this is before the warmup this week in the northeast which will push the pack line back to Winne.

Wouldn’t use early feb climo with snow pack and SST’s up here…

Better use a significant + surface temp bias in SNE or risk getting burned.

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Geeze, I’m only 20 miles south of you yet it looks like you live in a different country. Looks like March 31st here geese are out not a snow pile in sight. 

Did you say geese?

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I need something to break right....I feel like the last two years, last season and this one, I have had damn good seasonal efforts that just haven't amounted to anything where it counts...snowfall. I feel like I have largely had the pattern right, but it just refuses to snow. You try to point out great looks to validate the forecast and it just gets eye rolls.

That’s what makes a rat in this part of the world

Big snows will always be close in Dec and Jan, we live in New England lol. 
 

I def would not feel good about a forecast on that merit. 

The outcomes to date have been pretty damn textbook significant El Niño. 
 

Just following that seasonal forecast would have yield great accuracy results to date

That curious look for the cold shot this weekend with massive ridge in plains and trough in the northeast is going to continue to flatten out

It looks very MJO phase 6ish. Notorious lag, i know but we've been in phase 7 and will remain so into the weekend. 

Sell BN. Think good chance it turns out AN both days. Likely really nice for early feb..

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Solid stripe in there from DAW to AFN of 7-9”+

The banding was good enough for 6" to the sea coast NH down to- Newburyport MA/Lawrence. But temps a huge limiting factor throughout.  Pretty cool driving from Dover to DAW and seeing snow amounts triple in ~8 miles.

Kinda wild hearing the melting as the rates drop to light, and temps bump up a degree or two.