jbenedet

We back to brown

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the king screamer 

Queen. The one behind it is the king. 

You all can put me on mute. Don't care.

Your loss; not mine.

On 12/23/2023 at 12:48 PM, jbenedet said:

If you’re looking for significant cold this is a West of Mississippi River story. Several pieces of guidance are pointing in this direction. At this point, I think the East-central US has some reason for excitement in January; I.e. big snow potential. Not seeing this elsewhere at the moment. This is a N to AN look for the east coast, AN favored in the northeast.

 

On 12/23/2023 at 12:52 PM, jbenedet said:

Reposting, as GEPS in general alignment with the GEFS at same timeframe.

Take away this far out is some confidence building on severe cold in early to mid January out western half CONUS. UL Ridging in the east..

On 12/24/2023 at 12:44 PM, jbenedet said:

def not.
 

Point is, balance of guidance has the core of the PV towards the mountain west. 

That latest run of the GEFS looks best though for our region. But some caution on that—it’s a bit misleading— you can still see height falls greatest over the SW on that run.

CT Rhode Island SE MA up to BOSTON. BUST.

Most people live here. OOPS. 

This is trending well into ratter already for these locations; not even considering the next two cutters. 

Good luck @40/70 Benchmark

Hopefully all these people haven't been paying attention...

@40/70 Benchmark: Normal to AN snowfall forecast for 2023-2024.

How it's going: snowless December. One SECS in January while blizzards slam the Midwest. OOPS.

"I was wrong about December"

"I was wrong about January"..

"I was wrong about....." 

Wow. Appreciate the honesty.

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still shoveling @jbenedet's nearly 19" of whiff/warm from my driveway....almost as good as his forecast 38" of whiff for @dendrite a few years back.

Bro get a life. Seriously. January snowfall expectations have gone DOWN even with yesterday's storm. Probability is absolutely lost on you. Even the most basic shit.

I said to close the shades. You'd be much better off. I stand by it. Or we could all be holding on with great expectations following your BS, for what will be a "Don't blink, your snow is gone, January." Ratter.

January is running as expected. My well below normal snowfall forecast to verify. Now you're clinging onto this storm because your January forecast and seasonal forecast is trending from worse to abysmal. You're the fool pounding your chest when January --despite this last storm--looks like dogshit against your calls. With 2 major stemwinders dumping on the midwest, and cutting the warm sector to Quebec City.  Funny just a few short weeks ago you and brooklyn were celebrating those weeklies for this????  

Good to know you're still standing by your shit call of Normal to AN snowfall this winter. Can't wait for the facade of accountability "I was wrong" mea culpa. And we're supposed to think this means something.

Ratter odds are up; don't get it twisted.

“There are many ways to skin a rat”

Winter 2023-2024 SNE re-analysis

CNE will cash in. 
 

Berks best. Still likely that area down to upstate NY, to northeast PA/extreme NW jersey

Crap winter storm for the densely populated areas in New England.
 

Lots of snow obs with little to show for it.

So snow starved around here that latch onto any crap potential. 

In all seriousness this one will be fun to watch; how much background warmth and significant El Niño conditions can muck up peak climo with a decent SLP track.

Nice morning out with the dog.

32/21 PSM @8:50 am 
 

+5 T departures against guidance.

Who coulda seen that?

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Whiff, rain?

You’ve been tracking a crap storm potential for 10 days. We knew.

Enjoy mostly white rain. 
 

38 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Trend to watch today is secondary vort interaction primarily regarding what happens on the back end for the interior.  Comfortable with the idea of SE fetch being strong at 850 for a portion of overnight Sunday, to me coastal situation is pretty clear and has been for some time now.

This is an excellent point. 850 track has been trending up and in. Very tucked.

H7 and H5 goes over SNE and closes off there. The surface reflection could easily end up further north/west, collocated with the H5 occlusion on that merit alone.

The other aspect to further north/west track risk is the trailing shortwave is now the key player, and it is getting deeper with each run; while dampening the lead wave. The lead wave is now almost fully dissipated. 

Main takeaway is the evolution of this storm has changed significantly in just a day of runs; there's a lot more uncertainty (than usual) at day 3 as a result. Stronger system and tucked in is now much more likely than weak and southeast. Also with regards to timing - seems ~12 hours later as a result of the trailing shortwave being the primary feature. 

You could  use the mute option.  

But Nahhhhh.

GFY

@Damage In Tolland is a child in a man's body. 

@40/70 Benchmark spends months analyzing in agonizing detail, but is outperformed by a 3 min read of the outside world.

@ORH_wxmanWill show excitement on every storm, regardless the potential. The biggest green tag weenie, that rope-a-dopes the cohort of idiots and enables the weenie cliff-dive. A true depression driver. 

@WinterWolf Eats squirrels and is proud of it.

Circus of rejects.

You guys have the mute button. Use it.

But you don't...I wonder why?

Circus. Echo chamber for imbeciles and terrible forecasters.

Pretty damn cool the way the pacific jet just amps up with time with such consistency. Check out the area in Northern Gulf of Mexico. Significant El Niño flexing.

You see a firehouse pointed toward southeast Canada; that air coverages and sinks, filling our Canadian high with maritime tropical air. It doesn’t anchor and the depth of the cold weakens with time.

It’s why a significant -NAO can get neutered with a deep trough in the west and El Niño background.

GEFS is south.

Bigger point is the way the surface high becomes one extended all the way to Bermuda. That’s a “too warm” problem for all densely populated locations along the coast. West is best.

Just now, NEG NAO said:

But the ICON came North - - the ENSEMBLES of these models and the 12Z Euro and ENSEMBLES might make this more clearer - I think the only solution off the table right now is the soaking rainstorm scenario

I don’t look at the ICON, personally.

i referenced the CMC only to see the “what if” such a scenario played out; albeit highly unlikely.

I think the main takeaway is the significant snow totals look confined to a one region area, regardless of the evolution. It’s a fragile setup.

9 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

12z GFS is a good example of the suppression risk that occurs with heights crashing out west.

 

Still a very delicate act here to make it work.

Yea, this looks a lot more like a latitude capped storm—>early occlusion, with UL heights building over top of it due to trough in the pacific and then slide ENE. 
 

The 12z CMC does not make any sense to me; 12z GFS much closer to the actual evolution imo.

I’m def more in the camp that this is a mid Atlantic—>south snow storm at the moment. However there will be a significant longitudinal gradient. 

Where H5 closes off, in and away from the coast, sees the jack. 

The GFS track/evolution was near perfect for a significant mid Atlantic storm but look at the east surface winds ripping. And they never orient N/Northeast, instead to ENE. The surface high in reality extends from eastern Canada to Bermuda, and therefore maintains the surface wind direction off the Atlantic. This is being flagged on the ensembles, with +surface temp anomalies.

Model guidance has consistently been too cold with very short lead times this season. It’s ridiculous that GFS has LI in low mid 30’s with this wind and SST’s in upper 40’s. It’s a major issue for NYC metro. Hell even BOS will be 40F with this look.

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Did I post the 2m temps or did you? You are certifiably crazy .. Who on earth posts Day 6 2m temp anomalies before the storm, it makes zero sense.  You cannot win this argument man get a life.

There is no argument. 
 

You picked one map of two bc that fits your snow glass view. Talk to me about the EPS H5 and Pacific jet.

Good luck. 
 

“See more snow”

Yup. Got it.

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

You are showing temp anomalies Saturday for a Sunday storm? Grasp for straws much?  That map will change 100 times and is only dependent on storm track. 

Oh wait. Lemme get this straight—you were analyzing the output from one op run at day 8, and I’m the one grasping for straws with the EPS output. 
 

See more snow. Apt name. Accurate.