jbenedet

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

My dude where were you not 3 days ago when we had back to back cutters and pushed mid to upper 50s for a day each time. Why all the sudden now is this being talked about? Feel like someone got under your skin.

You’re in Lancaster PA. I’m in NNE.

I’m talking wrt my region, not yours. 
 

My dude.

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean 50s and 60s would be mild, but a "furnace" would require temperatures of 70+ in the northeast, which happens maybe once a decade in DJF winter.  Would you say we are looking at a once a decade event?

 

Furnace to me is +20. That’s near peak winter climo so it’s 55-low 60’s as high confidence attainable in SNE. Maybe a peak day or so within which challenges ATH’s closer to 70 in local spots. That’s my current thinking.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty sure it's transient, awyway.

If it isn’t transient the regional climate is effffed lol

This look on the 23rd with the subtropical jet and a developing (significant) western Atlantic ridge is ….

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

We shall see it is a rather quick pass showing up through 4-6 so Im not so sure we see more than a day or two spike close to those levels with storm action which isn't saying much because we had that not a week ago with the last 2 storms that tracked into the lakes. Ill stick with the mid to upper 40s call for now ahead of a cold front idea unless something drastically changes.

 

Yea sorry it has been a bit of a busy weekend but yes this is what I was referencing @40/70 Benchmark it is not 100% but probably the closest I have seen someone forecast this thus far. Lets see if January can still hold 1.9. Either way it was a solid forecast for back in September. Also I feel the same way Griteater I have been back and forth in thinking it actually would get to this level. I still do feel this falls just short of super status though but again I don't think threshold really matters at this point just for record keeping.

Im not sure about that final peak you may be thinking there is no lack of trade winds, in fact trades are at strong levels right now so this should start the cooling process. There looks to be a slight weakening coming up toward the end of the month which I think will end up just being a push of the subsurface cold pool further east. I’ll post TAO updates over the next few days, today's update already shows a cooler western 3.4 and 4 subsurface look and the +5 anomalies in the eastern region 3 cooling again.

We have about a week in 4-6 at high amplitude. Highest of the winter season. This is also immediately following peak ENSO conditions.
 

phase 7 is most likely destination thereafter which is also +AN.

I’m expecting a furnace in the northeast; but it won’t be reflected in guidance until we’re much closer in, around the 20th.

BOS:

60/51 

Many areas in SNE gonna push 60 before this front clears. Could be a helluva nice afternoon in southeast sections to even Boston maybe…

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

How are you missing the complete pattern shift out west. Look what happens after the warm up. 

If you want to read 384hr+ on the GEFS/EPS. Go for it.
 

The irony is, verbatim, we lose the -NAO, and the long wave ridge placement out west is approximately 750–1000 miles too far west —the northeast will be prone to cutters and warm sectoring with that look. This especially true in eastern half of New England. Doesn’t take much to see, just look under the hood of the same guidance you’re referencing. 

End of the month—as advertised—the pacific improves, the east coast worsens.

Not saying it will play out that way, but if you take off the snow goggles…that’s what it is right now.

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I mean if you somehow think going through 4-6 will not yield a warmer pattern... especially at this amplitude of mjo. I just have to say best of luck. Torch ehhh probably not but warmer than average sure and being at the lowest point of the year in averages a +10 anomaly around here would be something like mid 40s and low 30s at night.

When we start seeing mid to upper 50s even 60s regularly let me know cause then that is a straight up torch fest. I had mid 70s about 6-7 years ago for two winters in february for like 2 days. Even had thunderstorms and hail lol.

Patience.

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You bring up a real good point, is the “normal” displaced east big GOA vortex just delayed? Hard to believe we have an El Nino this strong and just simply never see a typical strong/super response. Everything about this event has been delayed. (NDJ peak).  An event of this strength dramatically alters the global heat budget and is eventually going to feedback. The laws of physics have to kick in at some point I would think, especially given the huge, unprecedented rise in the MEI over the last month, there has to be an atmospheric response in kind

The Jan 20th to end of month period looks like an El Niño induced furnace. 
 

Hang on…

Today’s 12z GFS hr 240+ just an appetizer.

Much nicer day than day prior to last storm.

Higher High—> Lower Low.

I’m expecting a bigger wind/rain/coastal flooding event in Seacoast NH.

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

a vendetta?????

Can’t handle the truth. 

The wind and hydro threat looks more impressive than the previous stemwinder

-Warmer antecedent airmass… Much higher dews.

-less snow cover; reduce chances of low level inversion. 

-Southeasterly fetch tracing back to Bermuda.

-low level jet pointed perpendicular to larger area of New England coastline. Very high wind threat looks to be in much more densely populated areas. Not a “just in Maine” story. SE MA, Boston in focus.

-Deeper low ~972; vs 977 at our latitude. 

On 1/11/2024 at 6:56 AM, jbenedet said:

 

But I see a big warmup beginning around the 20th. Not sure it can classify as a January “thaw” given how warm it’s been outside of far interior of NNE, but that’s the cliche. Might pass for a thaw after next week’s cold.
 

On 1/11/2024 at 7:45 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So what do you believe happens once the MJO progresses beyond phase 6 as the calendar flips to February?

I’m not looking out that far. Post Jan 20th increasingly looks like a torch period, a window of a week or more. 

I don’t like that the El Niño forcing calmed (relaxed) this month; while El Niño state actually intensified to major territory. I believe that means it is more likely that it makes its biggest appearance yet, as MJO 4,5,6 at end of the month. 

24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s a transient cold shot that is a much modified version of the cold over the west.  

Agreed. Not looking frigid. Not severe cold. N to BN for bulk of the week. Closer to N along the coast.
 

But a very big warmup follows.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Don’t worry…it’s unfortunately coming. 

Looks like for a week, with best snow chances for SNE of the season. 
 

But I see a big warmup beginning around the 20th. Not sure it can classify as a January “thaw” given how warm it’s been outside of far interior of NNE, but that’s the cliche. Might pass for a thaw after next week’s cold.
 

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If we had listened to you, there wouldn’t have been any snow to melt.  So keep that in mind, as you prod us winter weather/snow lovers. 

Not true, if you closed the shades as I'd told you, you wouldn't have noticed it even snowed. 

35/25 at PSM. Allow the great melt to commence.

37/27 BOS

39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Don’t lie, this will drop several inches in the mountains

It always snows Winne—> north 

Just get them storms and a normal season is attainable 

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I have 4” on the ground, I’m not worried about retaining any of it, my question was will the dynamics be different with this storm considering the cold in place down vs the previous cutters in December.

Absolutely, assuredly no. There is no depth to the cold outside your house. You will be above freezing a few hours after sunrise, max.  

Fake cold. 850s already near 0C in SNE.

torch it. 

17 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Pretty cold here to start, down to 15F; will CAD play a role in the dynamics of this system even down here?

Denial ain’t a river in Egypt.

It’s gone. It’s gonna be okay.