jbenedet

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

overcast but brightening a bit.  Could be worse

Not really. It’s May 19. 

~80% of days since 1st day of spring have been with -NAO. This is flipped from winter. 

-NAO incoming, again, beginning this weekend - good news is (right now) looks significant enough to send the worst (easterly flow) down to the Mid Atlantic and we can 60-70 in mid May behind the door, with surface HP overhead..... 

Hedge in favor of dry, seasonable temps and low dews in NNE. You guys in far southern sections--good time for a vacation.... 

Managed to take the bike out 4 days this week, including today. First time since November. 

We are passed the shit up here; but it's still only okay by New England standards, which is obviously still a low bar...hah.

59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So yeah ... GFS seems to have come around to the pivot S idea with the weekend synopsis' .... sparing us inundating cold rains and mist... but, the trade off isn't very balmy either.

 

I'll take low 60's and run with it.

21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm on the fence ...

On one hand, the GFS rages on with an amplitude bias that surpasses all other amp bias' across all guidance, that kicks in around 96 hours.  The flow is slowing ( hemisphere ) and I suspect that it's amplitude bias shifts <-  ...etc.   Lot of intuitive experience with this guidance.   Plus, the GGEM is noted ( I mentioned that myself earlier) and would make sense.  It has good continuity between 00z and 12z, where the GFS is all over the place. I  just think the GFS trips over it's own amplitude fantasies. 

On the other hand, pure experience.   New England's unique p.o.s. spring climate cannot be discounted.

Pistol to the head I suspect the GGEM is closer to right with some caveats perhaps. 

One other aspect that's seasonally heading toward the back burner, but the teleonnectors are in aggregate a warm basis for the next 10 days to 2 week.  At some point that may and probably should begin to present in the guidance. 

GFS/GEFS is coming around to GEM/EURO view for this weekend, but not without kickin' and screamin'.

20 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just need Sunday to end up on the fairer side - can you work that out ?

Looking at most guidance ex the GFS op you can see how odds favor decent weather. GEM makes most sense to me.

Even the 12z GEFS has the surface low SE of the BM by 12z Sat. Not buying bs IVT on the GFS.

Next weekend is coming around, to "okay", from dreadful - but man is the crap weather pattern fightin' hard.

21 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

they were brutal on saturday when I was doing yard work. They don't give a shit about the bug repellent I sprayed on my head 5 times.

Pfff. Bug repellent.

Do your yard work in the rain. Problem solved.

To put some objectivity to our pessimism: this year, most in our subforum will have the landscape in a cold season state fall/winter >6 months; i.e, longer than a warm season spring/summer state.

First week of November is only 6 months out….

There’s a switch out of this hellish -NAO regime next week, and it likely means the disturbance late week kicks out, faster— by very early Sat morning. I’m optimistic for the first time this spring, in “better than modeled weather”.

Friday could suck, but next weekend will likely turn out much better than current guidance consensus. 
 

March will finally be behind us.

Good weather for the gardens. 

That's all we got. 

Persistent -NAO conditions during what is now mid spring, causing model chaos with fronts always near by. Good time to not be a forecaster, and grab the popcorn. Short/immediate term forecast errors for “fair weather days” must be through the roof. 

Weather here is much better this morning than what was modeled 6-12 hrs before….Very warm morning compensating for a lame high…But mid 50’s I’ll take with what could have been…

The misery mist and low overcast is at bay—-for now….

Odd split in the guidance for lows tonight. GFS and all mesos except the RGEM showing we stay way above freezing while euro and rgem showing we go below. And it’s even stranger with the former group having seasonal cold biases….

Man. Gardener’s nightmare with a hard freeze on April 26. We do it one more time tomorrow….

The trees always know….

The landscape was brown with much anticipation of this shit…

Our AN weather in winter hasn’t translated to early spring. It’s like 6 months of mid to late March. 
 

Seeing how easily we freeze at night is a real spectacle on April 22 + after mid January taking an alignment of the stars to see a low below 35.

April just reminds us all of how bad our climo is for outdoor activities, generally…

But people are paying up to live here…Less snow but not less shit…

I’m finding my ticket out. Fentanyl weather is for the birds. Life is short.

Bad forecasts need bad measurements.

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6-8” there on PNS. 

I guess they measure in the plow piles on the sidewalks in Dover. 
 

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Funny. My trees added a coating of white overnight after losing it late yesterday afternoon. 
 

Melting now!

We’re going to get a good melt today despite the BN temps and clouds, given that the ground never froze up. Makes a big difference. 
 

Can’t melt fast enough for me though. April 5th man. I need spring.

Don’t know how anyone has been adding to totals MHT points south/east unless you have elevation.

34/35 throughout the area for lows last night.

I’ve had probably had 30” of falling snow, but no more than 3” at any point to show for it. 
 

The trees even lost their thick white coats overnight, despite the persistent light snow falling throughout.

We are now capping this event off with a flip to rain/drizzle.

Car doesn’t even need a clean off after parking at 9 a.m. 

Seeing ASH at 35/35.

We never fell below 33 so the spring plants are still springing. 
 

A true April snow event.

What + 1.5F does to clown maps. 

Even DAW didn’t drop below 34

20 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Guess my eyes are wrong! Either way about what I expected. 

1:1 ratios with snow 

snow atm profile; sleet ratios 

On 4/2/2024 at 8:03 AM, jbenedet said:

The precip rates will be impressive with the initial push Wednesday evening. But radar echoes will progressively weaken after 0-6z Thursday. Lots of “holes” developing in the echoes. 
 

For the big totals you’ll need to be stacking Wednesday, and that’s when temps are most marginal in eastern sections.

Yup. 

 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CON to Pope should be snowing

Snow. 
 

So wet.

So much white rain….

In other news, the radar looks like poopy