jbenedet

Shit storm. And the 6z euro ropes in more snow weenies on fringes just to break their fragile hearts. 

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

There you are. You are like that rat. Looking for that one crumb. 

And to think that I was going to give you credit for being right, I realized I had fallen and hit my head last night. Please just stop posting lol

You have the mental capacity of a squirrel. 

Emotions change like the wind and perceptions of forecasts that were never made.

No one can fix that but you.

And being that you’re a man child like @WinterWolfand @Damage In Tollandit’s too late. 

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Boston might hit 4" 

38/33

Rain.

What’s the over under on a sunny day tomorrow?

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He was forecasting no confluence 2 days ago. 

Oh the leader of the snow weenie pack.

Guy still lost.

CON-fluence. BS. Effin’ UL +height anoms over our heads. Has been that way for days.

Northern stream shortwave (kicker) kickin’ weenies in the nuts.

.

Just looking at the sky, wouldn’t even think a storm was coming to the northeast.
 

Star gazing night; no halo around the moon. 
 

On 2/10/2024 at 10:07 AM, jbenedet said:

Clowns will clown.

Antecedent airmass sucks. Check

Confluence over northeast gone. Check

Northern stream comes in late. Check.

 

Good luck in southern SNE.

That was my latest, but can’t help if we have a bunch of boomers with dementia in here.

Early mid level occlusions are a bitch. Tend to shunt east; and delay phasing. 

Balance is strongly in favor of disappointment unless you’re talking bowling ball theme in late winter/early spring.

Clowns will clown.

Antecedent airmass sucks. Check

Confluence over northeast gone. Check

Northern stream comes in late. Check.

Good luck in southern SNE.

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Let’s analyze Today’s 2m temp trends for Tuesday’s system lol. 

Good luck. Even your beloved GFS is slowly selling your snow.

I’m liking this event a lot less at the moment; the airmass out ahead has evolved to marginal and the northern stream which could deliver on both fronts is coming too late. 
 

The RGEM surface temps are very likely a lot more realistic than the NAM on Tues. That’s trouble. 
 

You need the trailing northern stream shortwave to hook up with this.

3 days worth of catching up for the GFS, and still behind. The NAM is even worse. 

Be careful with them GFS clown maps in SNE; bc GFS has highest QPF.

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

pretty much the same from 12z

Mid levels are north, but not by much 50 miles—ish. H7 goes over SE New England. 
 

13 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Not sure it'll mean much, if anything with this system, but toss the nam far and wide today and tomorrow. It's off the rails, not mixing the BL at all 

Eh. It bears remembering: “A butterfly flaps its wings…” small errors in the short term are amplified out in time. RE: downstream upper level heights.

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A partial phase sooner works too, A full phaser would be to much of a good thing.

This.

NAM and GFS thermals continue to suck. Cold Bias beware.

NAM never had breaking 40. 

Today’s warm sector and tomorrow 60 near BOS probably have guidance and many that follow, jumping off the suppression train.

I don’t see suppression here; instead it’s just the trailing shortwave acting more as a kicker.

If there is more phasing this comes much further north imo.

This event is lost on me so far. Still…

Looking for the perceived “wall” in the northeast; I don’t see it—not at the surface, 850 or 500. Certainly not a high enough wall for potent shortwave to overcome, with long wave spacing that has the span of the CONUS to amplify…850 cold anoms are on the back side of this; not out ahead over the northeast US or SE Canada. That’s a red flag arguing against suppression. 

There’s also a flip flop in NAO conditions as the storm makes its closest approach, neg state to positive. Less confluence; warmer. It also means faster track. With that, I believe the 12z GFS seems like the best case scenario; snow-wise. I wouldn’t benchmark that as the most likely outcome.  

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

continues the theme of less stream interaction and held back southern stream 

Good call on this one. 
 

GFS was right. I was wrong.

Still of course needs to verify but GFS is beating the competition through 6 innings. 

With this I'm gonna say the GFS op is still the outlier.

The 12z GEFS shows a clear nod to the CMC evolution.

It's much more clear in the GEFS than the op.

Safe to say don't really know where this goes from here. Uncertainty went up vs 18 hrs ago. 

Information too unreliable right now.

Wait and see mode again...

There's still huge discrepancies just on how strong the southern stream vort is, and speed of it,, pretty early on around day 4 nevermind phasing. Kinda shocked by this, actually.