jbenedet

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Tomorrow?  Good luck with that!  If you hit 60-65 it's a win.   Maybe you can squeeze out 68 as you pack everyone into the car to come home Sunday...

Lol. Don't show him this for tomorrow.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KORH

Might want to bring a sweatshirt to the games Saturday....

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Great going to newport ri tomorrow and sunday

Probably don't get out of 50's there tomorrow. Maybe luck out on Sunday and get into the mid 60's.

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looking forward to a decent weekend at soccer tourney in Marlborough Mass. sun :clouds and 70-75 FTW 

Not happening on Saturday. Mid 60's.  

Cold 850's and mostly cloudy by early afternoon. Sunday I'd go 70-75 for that location.

And that weak wave on Saturday--and that the mesos would key in on this sticking around--was a big concern I had going several days back. Looks like southern sections of the sub forum will be fighting mostly cloudy to overcast skies tomorrow afternoon. And the rest of us try to thread the needle, while still being well BN.

Then the best weather will be North on Sunday (ex Maine) as a backdoor pushes into SNE and the northern mid Atlantic and slows, allowing onshore flow off the cold Atlantic to rule the day. Looks nasty for coastal SNE, and especially the islands south of the cape.

Don't like our chances this weekend for nice weather. Looks like risk is def in favor of unsettled. Saturday best day? Sunday and Monday have several shortwaves passing near by to our south and the globals are probably underestimating the qpf/clouds associated with these. And then we also want to hope that none of these waves amplifies more than current guidance. Teleconnections also favor unsettled and BN for this weekend...

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

huge mass discontinuity on this 12z run...  After a coastal the whole conus steeps in late spring/early summer type heat.  

I also thing that there's fair chance that coastal is overdone - 

I'm also noticing a subtle trend to weaken the influence of that ULL over the Great Lakes and have that energy phase in sooner. I'm thinking this system has a better chance of maturing much earlier near the Ohio river valley and cutting off long before it gets here, and sliding ENE kinda like a further southeast/weaker version of the storm we just experienced...But that also means we stay on the cold side of this one, and suffer through one or two cold and wet days of nasty weather.  

The current depiction seems too "winter-esque" to me. I think the May sun is going to do its work in eroding that block and allowing more UL height rises as the shortwave traverses the plains...

Well looks like a forgone conclusion that the first severe weather outbreak across the SE US is this Thurs/Fri. Looks downright nasty. Euro is a beast. 

EPS and GEFS on board for a GOM to Great Lakes cutter.

Something I've noticed is if you want to avoid the undesirable impacts of a BD up here in spring, push it well south/southwest, that way the low level easterly flow is more nuanced and you have Surface HP overhead. Even with a CP  air mass the sun can then do its work, and the lack of wind further improves the sensible weather conditions. In sum if ACY is socked in clouds with strong E/NE winds, like it is today, chances are we salvage a nice day.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Haven't looked a lot down there, but I'll take Sun over Sat for up here.

I'll take both. More threading the needle...partly to mostly sunny upper 50's to low 60's. We take.

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GOM warming isn't trivial though.   

Will may be right in concept .. however, raising the SST by any amount has an impact on Delta(H) exchange rates, which is in part dependent on the air's heat sink in the total coupled system. 

Because of that, as the SSTs rise, the effectiveness on "chilling" the air mass does decline.  However, ...if a near-by over land, early season air mass is very dry at 90 F (not atypical for early season warmth in the NE U.S.) and then we're talking about the difference between 45 and 41 F early spring SST's, the idea of that being more than negligible strains believability at bit.  

There is also evidence/papers out there (refereed) that discuss evidences in deep sea biota that suggest the Lab. Current has been steadily weakening over the last 100 years.  Combining that with, or removing it, as part of GW is a monstrous task.. Nonetheless, if that trend continues decade after decade like that ...eventually the southern nose/termination waters may start to reflect that change - who knows if we are there, or if this is just some temporary thing. 

By the way , there is a ST low designated 1,000 or so naut mi WSW of the Azores if anyone is interested - pretty fantastic for this time of year. 

Good post Tip. I agree. 

I was even thinking that to get a *rough* back of the envelope idea as to how this may impact sensible weather, perhaps one could shift a given coastal location south X miles to make up for the 4F temperature differential in SST. For example 4F SST increase would be like shifting Portland ME, to cape cod, or Boston to Sandy Hook NJ. 

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats airplanes?

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's a heat map for property tax rates.

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not going to change a 45F misery mist pattern into a 70F pattern if that's what you are implying. As long as the specific heat of water is 4X greater than air, then the changes will be negligible to us in terms of sensible wx.

I'm not implying that at all. We could see backdooring events weaken in magnitude and duration however...

Without trying to spark a huge climate change debate, I am beginning to think we are at a point where we need to start thinking about these trends and how it may already be influencing our climate. The gulf of ME is the fastest warming major body of water on the planet. As such, historical analogs may be losing some utililty.

This whole week is looking like a huge victory considering what guidance was depicting for this time period last week. GEFS and EPS wants to even give most of NNE a sunny weekend and slightly AN temps. 

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I have longitude over you too. A few clouds here and there, but the theme for the day is mostly sunny.

True. If we can get some sunshine early afternoon tomorrow, we're going to squeeze in another nice day. I like the chances of near 60 up to CON.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Nice way to run a BD today. Near 50F with mid April sun is not so bad.

Yea if this was what to expect with BD's none of us would ever complain. It's nice out; can even get by without a jacket in the sun.

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are you talking about? The rest of the week is NE flow lol..You and Socks have it backwards

No it isn't. The only day with predominately NE flow is today. Midday tomorrow we flip to more southerly. Wouldn't be surprised if we all end AN both days. 850 warms up nicely tomorrow so once the sun pops we are in good shape.

I know many complain about the flipping back and forth this time of the year but I think those who are looking for an end to prolonged backdooring periods with 40's and misery mist should always welcome the torch we saw the first half of this month. In my opinion the significant and broad  damage inflicted upon the snowpack throughout the region will really help to reduce back door CAD going forward as it tilts the feedbacks in favor of the the mid to late April sun. 

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah... Pope said no yesterday . Said it's Napril so we can't get them 

On 4/11/2017 at 10:33 AM, jbenedet said:

Not going to get air mass severe t storms anywhere in NE with that air mass in place. Keep in mind it's early April. Don't have the CAPE. 

Isolated strong maybe; severe no. 

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah... Pope said no yesterday . Said it's Napril so we can't get them 

Don't misquote me. Several days ago I said, "No severe tstorms; isolated strong maybe." I stand by it.