jbenedet
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Posts posted by jbenedet
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9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:
Tuesday needs a ton of improvement... gets going to late for everyone. That’s a big ask at 3-4 day lead
I disagree. It’s already close for eastern areas. Trend has also been favorable. 72 hrs is plenty of time.
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I’d gladly take a whiff on Sunday to see what Tuesday’s wave can do with less interference. Tuesday has big potential imo; Sunday moderate at best.
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1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:
Got to slow down the Wed kicker too coming in fast behind it.
Not worried about that as much as I am the lead wave (Sunday) intensifying to the point that it will dampen heights behind it...Small risk, but it’s an important one...
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42 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:
We need a faster cyclogenesis further south.
NAM for Tues is of course OTL. 12z GFS is zoning in on the “right” evolution imo.
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I think Tuesday has the look of a (surprise) significant snow potential. Flow is slow—looks Miller B-esque. Cyclogenesis begin south of LI —just need to see more blocking on guidance which looks easily attainable given -NAO/-AO.
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Seems like Euro suffering from its “bury shortwaves in the SW” bias, given nature of this setup and big differences at H5 b/w it and the GFS early on. Either way longwave pattern does not look conducive to a wintry event for 90% of us. In terms of personal preferences, I’m excited for a big storm (rain or snow), which I still think is on the table...
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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
Details are meaningless this far out but pretty dynamic set up.
Of course. I just pointed it out bc of the significant disparity b/w surface and mid levels. Night and day.
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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
And now the GFS crushes you.
Surface evolution still anticlimactic—but H500, screams potential. Good spot at day 6/7. I’ll take.
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Just now, CoastalWx said:
I think it needs help this early, even in SE NH.
Wrt snow, yes I agree. I’m just excited about big storm potential —rain or snow.
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Next Tuesday looking much better. Starting to get excited about that one, seeing the huge improvements of the N stream and S stream shortwaves out to hr 120 over the past few runs....
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25 minutes ago, weathafella said:
The one a few days later looks better.
Longwave pattern better but flow faster. Concern with that is too progressive for a late bloomer...Obviously much more uncertainty with Tuesday but would want to see shortwave trend much stronger in coming days or will write off a big event.
To me, Friday is a wind/rain T-storm (for SNE) for most. Looks like a case where coastal isn’t pressed southeast until gets into significant climo CAD areas—Whites of NH and interior ME. Good back end snows for whites, northern greens, and interior ME probably. That’s my first guess anyway...
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Thinking most will be on the warm side of Friday’s event. Likely ends up well west with -PNA, save far interior and Maine.
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High wind watch issued for cape and islands and north shore MA. 60 mph wind gusts expected.
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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:
Nah those winds won't happen. That storm also stalled and backed in a bit. This will be nothing like it. I remember that one well. It gave us tremendous flooding. The precip will also be nothing like it. Coast and Cape will see some 50+ gusts, but nothing like 70.
True. Setup was better. But we do have a a Full moon and October SST’s vs March. SST’s are still quite warm (55-60F), so I think mixing down the 50+ mph gusts won’t be an issue along the coast where fetch is predominately easterly.
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I haven’t taken a detailed look at this event, but in general it reminds me a lot lof March 12/13 2010. Not sure how that storm was in New England but that was the worst winds in a Nor’Easter that I’ve ever experienced while I was living on Long Island. Widespread outages and gusts from central NJ to south shore of LI in the 50 to 70 mph range.
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Odd to see the 12z EPS with more or less same intensity SLP as the Euro op and GFS op at 96 hr. Imo that’s a red flag the ops are too weak given the overall set up. AO and NAO quite favorable heading into the event for a highly anomalous storm system. I think we’ll see some trends back towards the solutions we saw a few days back. Expecting some sort of middle ground solution to verify—slower track along the east coast to allow better phase interaction with PV dropping in through the Plains.
Also worth noting the HP over New Brunswick has been trending stronger for many runs now...
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3 hours ago, bluewave said:
Remnant moisture from major Hurricane Willa will get absorbed into a developing storm system in the Gulf of Mexico this week. There will be some degree of phasing with the disturbance moving across the Great Lakes. This will enhance the heavy rain and high wind potential especially with such a strong high pressure over SE Canada.
GFS looks warm core up to 38N. Given the tropical origins of this and being in latter half of Hurricane season, I’m not anticipating a run-of-the-mill Nor’ Easter type outcome. Will be interesting to see what the SLP looks like when it makes its way into the Gulf.
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12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
The outermost bands are reaching all the way up to the the Ocean City, MD area.
What surprises me most is I don’t see many talking about the moderate to major coastal flooding expected all the way up to MD. That’s incredible given that center of Florence is over 300 miles from these locations in the Mid Atlantic. We’re looking at over 500 miles of coastline with moderate to locally major coastal flooding. This and the prolific rainfall will be Florence’s legacy.
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1 minute ago, drscottsmith said:
Been following the WECT livestream since yesterday (out of Wilmington). On their radar, eye seems to be moving clearly SW, and once it passes the Oak Island area, it looks like the eye will be back over water (a fair distance offshore) for a period of time. What will this do for strengthening before a second possible landfall in SC?
Slows the rate of weakening dramatically. 0z Euro shows a minimal cane down to Eastern SC, through tomorrow a.m.
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Will Florence make “landfall” if the coast is underwater by the time he gets there?
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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:
It's cliche but it's going to be a wobble watching nowcast thing given how close it will be to the coast and models sometimes being off with precise track even at relatively short leads.
Yes. Always is. Worth noting that GFS and Hwrf trended towards the Euro op idea of paralleling the coast. That track —in general—is gaining credibility that’s all that can be said right now. Hopefully EPS narrows the posts through hr 48.
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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:
Looks to be doing just that (paralleling) out to 48 hr.
Yea. This should be very concerning bc this track really maximizes impact by slowing the rate of weakening while continuing to have enough of circulation offshore to hit 100’s of miles of coastline with significant (cat 3+) storm surge.
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I’d be very surprised if 12z euro doesn’t have Florence parallel the coast based on this look out to hr 24 with a 1026 hp pressing south out of NNE.
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GFS just took a step towards the 0z euro track that parallels the coast of SC.
November discussion
in New England
Posted
For Tuesday, Euro is trending 2 steps forward 1 step back, but it’s there nonetheless, just more ambiguous. 12z EPS shows significant threat still very much on the table imo.