jbenedet

The circulation is enormous with this - it reminds me a bit of a much further east version of the blizzard last year that ran over SE MA but buried upstate NY with 30-40". Can't remember which one it was specifically. 

24 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

One thing is that there's decent synoptic support well west with this thing so we are going to see good snows away from the center. For far eastern areas too the H7 low is very spread out so the best forcing is well NW. 

That said - it's hard to get a widespread 1-2 feet with the storm fairly far offshore. 

Yes. This. Once the storm stacks it's very asymmetrical with most of the circulation on the west side... Misleading to follow 850 to surface depiction for sensible weather impacts..

This is also why we're seeing model qpf output increase with latitude --- as the system stacks, circulation will expand hundreds of miles to the west, and lots of UL vorticity to tap into with crashing heights...

I think this is another case where the compromise is the euro is too far east early on but has best handle on the east kick later on.

This looks like a ~100 - 200 mile east and more amped version of Thursday's storm. Trough interaction with the cut-off lows early on at H5 and kick east look similar. And I think we will have another weenie band out west when this gets captured at H5. The H5 cut-off low hanging back west shows another long duration event for NNE.

The snowfall amounts could be broadly MECS level if this is the case with this bc BL temps will support much better ratios and better accums throughout; especially into Wednesday as the storm weakens but light to moderate snows persist throughout NNE. 

Yea this run should be a nuke for many.

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

All of the West side are below 970. WTF don't want

AWT

GEFS anyone? Wow. No complaints. 

Has a handful of 960-970 members over the cape. 

Mesos show TS conditions in outer banks of NC tomorrow.

WRF - NMM and WRF-ARW take the center just east of the CAPE. Would be quite a hit. Looks like low end TS Conditions for the SE MA, Cape and islands.

More of a negative tilt at hr 36 versus 6z.

Nam will be west of 6z; slightly better downstream ridging already apparent at hr 18.

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

So at this point in time where do you think the storm could potentially track? Do you have any thoughts on the Atlantic hurricane season?

Don't have much thoughts on the season. Only prediction I have is it being more active than average due to above average SST's and very weak to non-existent El Niño. 

Cape to Bay of fundy is my best guess. But low confidence. 

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if you are correct.

Those UL heights in NNE and SE Canada are already pretty impressive, and have started to trend back towards building positive UL height anomalies into most of NNE through tomorrow.

We'll see what a June sun along the east coast and GOM moisture via latent heat release can do to build that UL downstream ridge. Temps will likely overperform today and tomorrow, expecting mid to upper 70's around here today and widespread 80+ tomorrow. I'd want hedge closer to the coast with the track based on these two conditions. Still very interesting for the Cape and downeast ME.

Outer banks to Virginia Beach may need TS watch...

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Eps has members with something too.

Will have quite the slug of moisture associated with it coming out of the GOM in early June and it and will likely bear more resemblance to a weak TS/sub tropical system coming up the coast until it gets to latitude of the Mid Atlantic. Should be fun to watch. Hopefully 12z continues the trend. GEFS had a 100 mile shift west but still mostly a graze out of the Cape and downeast ME. Still plenty of time...

6z GFS and 6z NAM now hit eastern NE with a strong Nor' Easter. 989 mb in GOM  on GFS and NAM would likely be even deeper if extrapolated from its strength/position at hr 84...

Eastern NE, especially towards the cape may want to keep an eye on the second wave that comes out of the Gulf around hr 96. Could be some tropical characteristics with it, particularly in terms of moisture. It's mostly ots right now--about 100 miles SE of BM on 6z GEFS--but Trough has been trending sharper on guidance and definitely seeing a trend bringing this Northwest with time...

And then the 12z gfs laughs at me by nearly doing exactly that only with the first wave around hr 96...

Either one of those two waves next week is going to blow up and hit us pretty good is my guess at this point...

As an aside SST anomalies off the SE coast has temps closer to normal for July...

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm tending toward the GFS for the 96-120 hour synoptic evolution over the NE U.S.... The differences between it, and the Euro, are not huge, but enough so not to be quite as pessimistic.

I still see the Euro as doing some magic numbering with the depth of the mid and upper level vortex in how it gets there by D5 ... a bias of the Euro on and after D4s that it never fully has gotten away from over recent upgrades imo.  

The GFS being approximately 10 DM shallower as well as slightly more progressive overall are a bit more consistent (looking) for what feeds into that trough amplitude, but also may be more climate friendly in the numbers.  We'll see.. 

After which we'll see if the extended warm up that's been in the various signal sources for over a week has legs...  

Agreed...I'm starting the think the follow-up wave around hr 150 is the bigger system...That timeframe would also be coincident with very favorable teleconnections (climatological caveats aside). The subsequent significant warm-up also makes me think that's the one to watch.

Maybe we get the baroclinic zone from the first system to drape off the southeast coast, and weak subtropical disturbance to get picked up by the mid latitude trough diving in from the GL. It's a long shot but both the euro and gfs show some of the ingredients are there for such a situation to play out...

All things considered the players on the field are better aligned for a notable event with respect to the second system insofar as the first system remains of the nuisance variety... 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If it's going to be putrid let's make it epically bad. I want to hear my entire family pissing and moaning to me about how terrible the spring is and asking if we'll have a summer this year. 40s for highs or bust.

I'm hoping for something noteworthy outside of heavy rain/BN temps...but yea...there's no getting around at least a few days of bad weather next week. Might as well hope for something rare/fascinating from an anomalous pattern during an otherwise boring meteorological month...

If this system next week can tap tropical moisture from the Gulf or SE US watch out....I'd say chances are it does... 

Take note winter weather enthusiasts: we had a -NAO the entire month of May...and forecasts are for this to continue through the first half of June...

Now if we could manage such a stretch during winter...

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  Oh yeah, some years are worse than others. But still, when looking at average highs this time of year....it sure doesn't scream speedos and swimming pools quite yet. I will say this May is up there with some of the Mays from the 00s. The 00s had some very cold Springs here. If you take out the random 3 warm days we had a couple of weeks ago...it was a dam chilly month. 

Agreed. 

Its a catch-22 of sorts. We're in good company but there has been no easy way to escape it, outside of some threading the needle within New England itself. I was supposed to head to the Hamptons this past wknd but stayed in NH bc the weather was worse (in some cases much worse) down there...

You'd have to go south of ACY to find some summer type weather and even that's been dicey...

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seasons in seasons in New England. Some don't get it.

No disagreement there. But this pattern has been exceptional in that it has encompassed all of the northeast and most of the Mid Atlantic. 

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro is probably one of the worst things I've ever seen for next week.

Yea it's bad. I'm hoping we can get something exciting out of it---a subtropical storm/hybrid of sorts. The blocking is recurve/capture worthy... Tomorrow begins early June but the UL pattern looks like early March. Maybe we can get a subtropical system to develop off the SE coast around hr 144 when that UL jet is collocated with the Gulf Stream off the SE coast...These anomalous patterns tend to end with a bang....One can hope right?