jbenedet

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Agree about the wind field but the eyewall is looking better and better on radar. Still believe this has a decent shot at intensifying some today. 

That moat in the RFQ needs to fill in, and it is trying to do so.

If you’re quantifying intensification by central pressure falls, he’ll likely remain at/near steady state, but if you’re deducing intensification through an increasing area (size) of lower pressure than he will be strengthening. This is my point. 

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The core looks good on radar. Eyewall is now closed with a ring of deep convection starting to wrap completely around from the North. I believe we will see the reemergence of the eye this afternoon. 

Yea, but largely only aesthetic at this point. Hurricane windfield is enormous and still growing—this looks like a more impactful version of Ike. And it’s quite fitting being that today marks the 10 yr anniversary of Ike’s landfall in SE Texas.

Looking at satellite, Florence appears to be strengthening and in best shape over past 24 hrs. Outflow is healthy in all quadrants, good symmetry and, blossoming of deep convection within CDO.  All that said, as I mentioned yesterday Florence appears to be translating most/all of his intensification into greater size, which acts to impede potential increases in windspeed/SLP as the circulation is broadening much more than tightening. 

5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

That last recon pass - wow. There's like 3 cocentric eyewalls and a big stripe of hurricane force surface winds like 80-100 miles away from the center. Still obviously a decaying inner eyewall too. The center "calm" area has grown to 60-70 miles wide. The wind field has grown too big to strengthen quickly unless that big second eyewall can consolidate a bit and rob the rest of the wind maxima. Bottom line, the size is likely to continue growing, even if the max winds really don't.

Yes, in this way Florence reminds me of Hurricane Ike (when he was in the Gulf of Mexico). Latent Heat Energy being converted into increasing area rather than pressure falls close to center. Ike was a strong cat 2 before it hit Texas but was comparable to a cat 4/5 in terms of storm surge/coastal flooding

There’s also a syntopic scale gradient wind threat up into the  Mid Atlantic due to Florence’s large circulation and 1028 mb HP over ME, causing persistent onshore flow which will also likely produce coastal flooding and heavy rain well away from the center—Eastern VA, Eastern MD, Eastern NC and DE all appear at risk in this regard.

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Duration...sure, assuming it comes in quickly enough.

But I'm not sure how a case could be made against a reduced intensity at LF.

Not making a case, simply underscoring the unknowns regarding the slowdown and stall—how quickly does he decelerate and where exactly does the stall occur? 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Likely means a weaker LF, so there's that.

Def. no more than a cat 3.

Possibly. But in my view that positive is reduced in every respect—including the wind— by the increased duration. 

12z euro looks disasterous in the way that it slows down dramatically right before making LF and looks to stall at the coast with most of its circulation on land. This is in line with most of the other guidance now. A dramatic slowdown in forward speed right before landfall is being reflected on all major guidance right now. This is concerning to say the least.

I was right in the middle of that tornado warned cell in Dover; it was nasty. Definitely was inside a very weak circulation for a time but don’t think it ever tightened up enough to get classified. No damage in my immediate area but an awesome storm. 

I find it a bit odd that the NHC hasn't flagged this system with moderate to high probs for development into a tropical/sub tropical cyclone yet. I'm not sure what it's classifying it as (A Nor' Easter in  middle of Summer in the sub tropics???), but there's clearly a Mid Level circulation off the coast of North Carolina based on radar and visible satellite, and the guidance consensus track takes this over SST's that are marginally supportive of maintaining tropical characteristics as it moves north and then northwestward towards the Del Marva...

Door slightly opens for a TC to impact the east coast late next week, as a deep trough is showing up on most guidance moving across the plains, accompanied by a stronger WAR. GEFS are hinting at potential for TC development off the SE coast during that time frame. Just something to watch.

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was all about the midlevels. Same theme (different setup though) in march 2013 with the surface low way east but the midlevels were throwing forcing wayyy west into SNE. 

Yea. There was also another Nor Easter last year where the SLP ran over SE Mass but dumped widespread 30”+ in Upstate NY, near Binghamton area. That was due to a similar situarion as this with the mid level tracks being displaced well to the west. 

1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

Almost 40" of snow in 5 days? That's ridiculous.

Yea unless you live at the base of a mountain. Tell me about it.

10 minutes ago, summerthyme said:

We've gotta be at 15" now at least 

Careful you’re starting to sound like a 

2 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I was hoping for an average season here, but I never thought I'd see close to 100" of snow in few months.

Yea this is incredible. More than the past two seasons combined I’d say...

5 minutes ago, Dotb said:

I'm 41 years old, have lived in Massachusetts my whole life, and I don't remember ever getting as much snow in a 2-3 hour period as we just got, and it's still coming down hard.  If we didn't get a foot in three hours, I don't know what a foot of snow is.  Poor dog can't even see over the edges of the path I had to trudge for him to walk through, and his eyes are about 30 inches off the ground when he stands on his hind legs. 

AWT.

That’s awesome. Band has been fun up here but def not the epic rates you’re seeing in eastern MA. I think Nashua NH area got in the best of it as well.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think

Awesome. We salute you.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just did a quick FB Live... check it out

What did you just pick up in the past hr? 5”?

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You almost never see 4/hr in a widespread sense. Maybe I could consider it on a county level, but within the whole band, no.

We've had some reports of 8 and 9" in 3 hours so far, but 3.6 in 60 min was the highest report we've received.

Yea well I guess by that if you take 5 hrs and avg 2.4/hr you’re at a foot. Not quite sure why it’s unreasonable given the context. Coastal MA has a lot of catching up to do in term of those euro qpf totals. Just sayin’

We’ll see...

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It should still rip in the band. The question is whether you can pull off much more than an hour under it as it starts to pull east.

If you assume 1 to 3/hr, that gives you maybe 2-4, 3-6 in the most optimistic scenario.

There’s another band developing in behind it. Also 1-3 is kind of a wide range —no? 40 dbz is 4”+ type calibur given the context I would think...

1 minute ago, henry1978 said:

weenie so big not even stormy daniels could take it.

Nice. BOS is good for snow through 11 pm and this looks like heavy snow to the end.

Call me a weenie, if you want but I think BOS will tack on close to a foot from that band. It’s tightening up and will have some epic rates associated with it... perfect timing too in terms of limiting ISR and BL impacts...

7 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Just got out of NYC and on way back to NH (just in time). Looking over models while sitting at this gas station, a “safe” forecast for SE NH would be 14-20”. However, can’t rule out 24” lollis around here and especially to south of us. Will post more in the morning because I got to finish this drive.

I like those numbers. What were you doing in NY?

Getting light to mod OES right now. Experienced it on my ride from exeter up to  Dover.

With temps in mid 30’s nothing really accumulating at the moment.

Probably gets kicked east after 24. Not seeing the changes at H5 needed to expect otherwise...