jbenedet

This looks like one that models will never completely catch onto and just keep correcting (ticking) 850 south/east at initialization. 

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

What a garbage performance. It had rains to IZG, meanwhile I'm wondering if I have to fire up the snowblower in the morning.

Yes terrible. And it wasn’t just one or two “off” runs either. It tracked 850 low into NNH/N VT area for several days...

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

He's in HFD.

Sure. That general vicinity seems reasonable. The point I’m trying to highlight is a track E/ENE from there seems more reasonable than right up into central NNE. The GFS has been the worst in this regard. There are several ways to view this evolution—one is as a broad area of surface low pressure; the other is a series of surface lows that keep firing to the east of our ULL and then vertically stack. The surface lows follow the general track of ULL from west to east. I’m more in the latter camp. 

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well strongest pressure falls are just about over Ryan's fanny, and you would think that trend should continue down the coastal front.

Where is ryan’s back yard again? I forgot—it’s been a while...

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Why are you so concerned about the center track, best forcing inflow is North,  humpity style. You will also eventually squeeze out every tenth of precip the Atmosphere has to offer once the ULL passes over. November and all

I agree it’s not an issue for western locales. The midlevel track looks like there will be large area of warning snows for western MA and most of VT. And probably a smaller (but still quite broad area) of 12-24” within that where the banding sets up and sits.

These large cut-off lows are notoriously fickle in determining where the best surface pressure falls should be located. At times they seem to defy the laws of physics. I’m not sure why a primary would be stopped in its tracks going into western NY only to see a subsequent surface low develop near NJ and immediately track into the region that forced the redevelopment. To my mind the UL jet and baroclincity maximize surface pressure falls further southeast than the consensus—just off the coast—- but I’ve felt this way for several days and here we are...

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Historic stuff. We go extremes in all seasons the new normal?

Historic. Exactly. Such extremes often precede a very powerful storm system. As we get closer to Tuesday, my confidence continues to increase that we’ll see a big snowstorm (especially by November standards). Interior SNE is still very much in the game for this...Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see our coastal end up just inside the BM with the amount of blocking we have over the western North Atlantic. 

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still think I'd rather have the latitude further up in Maine right now. Unless the GFS is right, but seems too wrapped up.

I think we continue to see this pressed south...We’ll see...

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

South central NH Dover to Rochester to MHT has some potential w a little wiggle room south 

I’m much more bullish than that. The lead wave on Sunday is also going to help crash heights behind it...SNE should be watching as well imo.

1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Which storm threat are you talking about?

Monday/Tuesday

51 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That is close for SNH on GFS

This one is trending nicely. Good to see lower heights in the east, and the low level  cold over building over southeastern Canada. Deepest cold west, but trend is to send more of it east, sooner...

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

Well I really don’t classify a primary low running up the Hudson river valley as being a cutter, One that tracks thru MI yes, But whatever the case may be, That airmass is marginal, And the coastal areas would have trouble even if this ends up hugging.

Interior, A different story, But this won’t resolve one way or the other for several more cycles, The look at H5 has been different ea run so far with different outcomes, And the Norlun idea I think transitions more into a SLP as we move further in time.

 

Agree in general. The high confidence call is the pattern is incredibly amped. Incredibly amped patterns produce very intense systems that can “create their own cold”, if you will....And given what I outlined above, this system is likely to be to our south/east. That’s how I see this from a high level perspective right now...

29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A more amplified solution is going to want to cut further west, So it would be a warmer outcome just with that as the winds would be more out of the SSW, Now if the primary ends up further east or SE before the secondary develops, The airmass is still marginal but looks like for some it would still support some frozen precip in the interior, Where is the 1040mb high in que when you need it..............

Pattern isn’t conducive to cutters. We’ve seen many solutions with deep systems in the plains, and yet ultimately by the time they get to us they’re sliding under 40N.  Don’t fear an early bloomer with a               - - NAO.  As I see it now, issue is related to airmass and climatology. Best cold displaced to the west. For many this looks like a battle of strong dynamics vs stale airmass. Too early for details but rain to snow is highest chances for bulk of us imo. 

What a pattern next week. If you want a stalled/slow moving, intense Nor’ Easter this is the setup to get one...

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Mon-Tues has potential for where? 

This subforum. Bowling ball 

Monday/Tuesday looks like a doozie. 

3 hours ago, WxBlue said:

My snowboard is approaching to 2.5".

Our November total is now 10". Solid month.

Any updates?

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm nervous the 1-3" call for my area may bust...I had you at 2-5"....should have gone 2-5" more widespread.

Looks a little low, but not terrible. Eying it I think I’m already approaching 3”. 4-8” will probably verify broadly, away from the coast, with most areas at 5-6” sans Portland ME - east. Poor Ratios due to marginal temps are helping your forecast but the local precip max looks to be in our area. Appears to be good lift in the SGZ—seeing healthy looking aggregates. 1000 mb low doesn’t really get anyone excited but this little guy has more moisture to work with, with November SST’s, which may be contributing to the healthier looking radar returns despite the relatively feeble dynamics.

Pretty impressive radar already considering we don’t even have our consolidated coastal low yet. The returns should really blossom and fill in from now through the next 6 hrs in eastern areas. Difficult to see how I will end up with less than 6” out of this...It may be November climo but daytime ISR isn’t a seasonal issue at least...

Moderate SN currently. Rate has really picked up in past hr.

Quebec surface High quietly making its presence known on latest guidance. Surface trending colder into go time...

23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Weenie jackpot for the ORH Hills.

ORH a great spot. But best rates east imo. This will be especially tricky for north coast MA. I think it will rip there for 3-6 hrs before she pulls east. BL temps needed FTW...

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The rich get richer, it’s todays climate. Euro is off.

It is November, so there’s that—much easier to get rich with latitude right now. But where will the best dynamics be? I think Eastern MA to Downeast ME. Thinking Miller B with this. 

The 0z EPS evolution makes most sense to me. Less of an intensifying clipper event; more Miller B esque. I think that’s the major distinction in guidance right now. 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Wasn't CT jacked in the last one? That sounds like voodoo anyway. That 07-09 period I was jacked in almost every SWFE. lol

I’m talking about today’s “event” if we can even call it one...I’m expecting the BZ to get nudged a bit south in its wake.

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's def decent for N half of MA on 3k...even gets some into BOS  

 

Unusual to have back to back events jackpot the same area. My hunch is we see this come south back towards yesterday’s 12z euro.