jbenedet

I’m very interested to know how many El Niños had strong comebacks due to wholesale pattern changes vs taking the p anomalies and existing storm tracks and throwing them into peak winter climo. If —and that’s a big if—it’s most of the latter, we’re in big trouble.

I’d get excited about a comeback if the warm/wet storms weren’t so goddamn warm. 

I mean, the calendar won’t help us when it’s been 5-10 degrees above freezing, generally. You need wholesale changes. 

You overlay what has happened storm-wise (take a mean) at peak winter climo and it’s still trash.

Maybe this changes in a month, but right now the persistence forecast is near as bad as it gets for winter-weather.

16 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I thought this in October at some point we are going to go through a prolonged dry period and I thought it would be winter, but clearly not. We might be looking at a dry spring 

I mean with the El Niño backdrop it makes sense to have the high precip amounts; but we’re at record levels.

I see it differently- El Niño conditions will persist, we know that. We can’t get every 2”+ rain producer on the continent and also expect the cold interludes to consistently track the big snow producers over our heads. The p anomalies in this regard would be insane. It’s a bad bet. 

The very stormy pattern for us is when it’s warm. Very warm. That continues to be the case. That’s balanced by brief periods of seasonal cold and dry.

We can’t get every storm guys. We gonna blow every precip record away?
 

Lol.

Dry has to happen some time; unfortunately it’s with the cold.

Check out the trend in New Brunswick.

Surface HP.

But that trend is still in early innings…

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Often they come north a little more than progged…let’s hope this is one of those times, so we can get on the board with a little something.  

I mean, that would happen but confluence is building in the western Atlantic at this time. It’s going to offset that correction, imo.

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I had mentioned back a week or so that when the cold got here, That suppression of the storm track could happen.

That is def the trend.

46 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I'm hoping that this catches the Maritimes as well. We watch. 

I am skeptical; I think it’s one of these that occludes around Virginia’s latitude and slides ENE.

Worth watching though.

That’s a well timed Canadian surface HP showing up on the 6z GFS. Watch this trend.
 

Pay attention Mid Atlantic/extreme southern New England.

14 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

It's very difficult to get a weak source region to deliver anything now in the east.  Possible isn't probable and that's the view I'm taking 1h Jan.  We're missing HP in eastern Canada for any length of time outside of that Jan 6-8 period (36-48 hours or so) and that would be the only window I'd say 'maybe' at the moment for the bulk of SNE.  I don't think a coastal works there for snow though outside of the far interior.  Think you'd need overrunning into N/NE winds from the retreating HP.

 

That said, I do think it's a good thing that you've got at least some cold air this side of the pole mid Jan.  The way out of this mild pattern is gonna have to start in the west.  For me personally the game changed once you saw that massive jet extension because of the damage it did to NA snowpack buils and the sheer amount of Pac air over the continent.  At that point any way out was gonna take some time and several step changes.  This is step 1 and 2.

 

For the end month period to deliver, you'd look to see this trough slide eastward around the MLK period and seasonal rebuild of Nino induced heights out west.

I’m in general agreement with all of this. But just want to highlight surface highs can make sneaky appearances.

For one, this map doesn’t at all align with -NAO look in the western Atlantic which is forecasted in the teleconnections out ahead of the Jan 4 disturbance. 

The 6z GFS op is starting to pick up on it…

I believe that trend is real. Too much of a good thing for us northerners, maybe not for the south coast.

Heads up Mid Atlantic.

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It hasn’t been below freezing here since Xmas eve and not below 35° since Xmas day. That’s insane for mby. The ground is completely thawed…not even a hint of ice below the surface. The chickens have been eating worms out of the ground every afternoon when I let them out.

Normally with a torch or cutter there’s at least a subsurface frozen layer that remains from previous colder nights. But it is legit April mud season right now. It’s surreal when looking at the calendar.

This is kinda my point all the time; makes no sense to use calendar climo if the world around you doesn’t match it.

We have Dec 29th sun, that is all. If the landscape is similar by mid Jan, better off using Nov climo as a guide until/unless winter makes a sustained run to take us back towards mean conditions.

The 6th-7th threat looks gone to me; no way to get this up to our latitude until further notice. 

Focus is on the prior shortwave; around the 4th. 

I think this one trends south too, but it will end up a much closer threat, than the latter. Worth tracking.

My guess is first shortwave is centered around the Mid Atlantic, the second the southeast.

The snippets below are concerning the Jan 7th disturbance.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

seems like there’s something coherent across all ensembles for the 7th. GEFS perked up the southern stream. some strong members in there

No upper level ridging in the western Atlantic. Not a hiccup; it’s the sticking issue for this one, I’m afraid.
 

Congrats Asheville.

37 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

It'll generate it's own cold 

I mean it looks like a big system. Tearing a hole in the upper atmosphere has no problem yielding sufficient cold in winter, generally. That’s a given. The general tapestry at the surface looks BN in the south; N to slightly AN to the north. Common layout for Southern snowstorms.

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

overall synoptics aren't bad... BN heights over the 50/50 region, nice southern stream vort, blocking over the top, weak SW US ridge spike, and it's cold enough for snow pretty much everywhere as long as you're north of any LP that develops

Gonna be cut-off happy, me thinks. It’s generally colder so it does mean snow wherever that happens. I like south better than north right now. Gonna take some time for guidance to come around to it though. Big changes in the NAO still have to materialize.

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

overall synoptics aren't bad... BN heights over the 50/50 region, nice southern stream vort, blocking over the top, weak SW US ridge spike, and it's cold enough for snow pretty much everywhere as long as you're north of any LP that develops

Yea I’m not worried about ptype with this, as I believe it hooks up with the mid levels.

The +temp anomalies I’m seeing on guidance in the north has me thinking the real risk is in missing out is that it’s a southern snow storm—>mason dixon on south. That’s what is being hinted at. The Teles will also be primed to phasing during that window—early phase/cut-off,

Jan 6 - 930’s in the GOM. 6z GFS. 

Wonky run much?

Point remains this is the best window for a big snowstorm in the east. Pattern doesn’t look good beyond it either, which brings it into even greater focus.

Looking at the teles, my “best guess” take is the current evolution is going to change this from a  NE threat to a Mid Atlantic/Southeast snow storm. Phase of Northern Stream/southern stream likely, but much further southwest. There’s some hints showing up on this in the GEFS/EPS with T 850/T surface anomalies positive to the north with deeply negative south of mason Dixon. 

Anyway, we watch.

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yes or no to this ... I'm not personally implicating snow.  I'm saying there enhancing indication for a system there.

I will add that BL problems is endemic to the majority of D8-13 range 'signals' since 2015 really. 

Eh. Sure.

Perhaps we’re not evaluating these maps similarly. I’m doing more than just reading T values/anomalies but keying on which air masses are where. I.e., if signs indicate CP airmass just to our north/west, I wouldn’t be making the observation.

I’m in agreement that this window is best in a while, but still doesn’t look good imo. 

I’m gonna be that guy again, but current guidance shows BL warmth during that 4-6th timeframe. It’s not prohibitive to snow, but def limiting. POP also highest where surface is warmest. 
 

Still a ways away but as I see it, not enough to get excited about until/unless some big changes on the ensembles.

7 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Getting married!

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Congrats. Where in SC (specifically) you moving from?

35 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Meanwhile there is me who is moving from the Midlands of South Carolina to Brattleboro at the first of the year, so this will be my first taste of a "true winter". Of course I am hoping for snow, but sustained cold to acclimate works nicely too

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

What’s prompting the move? I’m asking because I’m strongly considering a move to the area you’re leaving.

I am still finding it remarkable how immediate term guidance has been 5-10 degrees too cold region wide on days like today. 

Wherever lucky enough to clear, 50’s achievable.

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

gaze upon the brown landscape and remember what we've lost. merry merry! 

It’s actually green more than brown.

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Doea anyone know where I can find snow depth for a specific day? Wondering how many actual white Christmas’s I’ve had since 1990. 

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/