Chris78
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Everything posted by Chris78
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Plenty of good hits in the EPS. Some flush hits, some miss south and some miss north. Good overall. Hopefully we can build on this.
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Great trends from the 12z suit. Most guidance yesterday had killed off the storm completely. I believe all has brought it back in some form or another.
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Looks like the cmc is coming north. Only out to 114 on TT but heights are higher out in front.
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Para doesnt quite get it done. But a huge jump N/W from 06z
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The one dropping in behind the initial SW at 114 Edit - That could help pull the precip field further west
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That vort dropping in from behind has the look that could be good for us
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Good enough improvement for me from 6 days out. Yesterday the GFS had killed off the storm completely.
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Probably won't get it done this run but much improved at h5 and surface
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GFS at H5 Is trying for next Monday/Tuesday.
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2018 like?
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Seems like we need to check the box on 10 things for us to snow. And if we are missing 1 of those items then it's no snow for you lol.
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Meh. Not sure that helps our snow chances. I'd rather have just cold enough than "vodka cold ".
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GFS looks like the cmc. Says what storm?
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I'm sure it will look differnt in 6 hours because there are vorts everywhere . I counted atleast 6 vorts on the map I posted lol. My takeaway is that their are plenty of opportunities starting next week. Get your sleep this week lol.
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Yea. It's says what storm??
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Whichever GFS gives us the most snow is the GFS of choice lol
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I would of thought the surface outcome would of been better with this look. GREAT look!!
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Alot to be optimistic about right now. Starting next week through the end of January ( maybe longer) should offer several opportunities for snow. Could we get Skunked? Sure but with the AO and NAO negative with true blocking I think it would take alot of bad luck not hit on atleast one. First time in many years we have blocking when it matters. @Bob ChiII would always say it takes 3 or 4 opportunities to hit on 1. I think we will get plenty of opportunities.
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GFS Para with a nice shift north. 6z and 00z for comparison.
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Smith can't move
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Looks like all 12z guidance has bumped south a bit. Probably not a bad place to 5/6 days out.
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Basically every storm the last several weeks has trended further NW than modeled. Maybe that trend stops with the blocking that's being modeled but I wouldn't count on it. It seems blocking / confluence is overmodeled a good bit.
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For 6 days out that looks pretty good to me.
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We'll be tracking our Miller A while we are shoveling our SECS.
