Chris78

GFS with a nice coastal next weekend. Temps too warm but not to far off. Too bad were not a few weeks further down the road into December.

With the looks were getting in the long range hopefully its just a matter of time till were tracking something legit. Heck 18z GFS pushes the next weekend system south of us.

This would be a good look 4 weeks from now with a SS vort and cold pressing down from the north.

Its been so long sometimes I think we forget what a legit - nao block can do lol. After the disaster of the long range models/ weeklies of last year ,Ive learned a lesson on not to put alot of faith in guidance of the overall pattern past about 2 weeks. Generally it seems like persistance wins out and patterns always take longer to flip than first advertised. It was pretty amazing that week after week thr Euro weeklies showed a great pattern developing and it just never materilized. Im also a big believer that luck and randomness play a big part in our snow totals lol

At some point were due for a - nao Dec/Jan/Feb. Its been several years. I would say the WD index is pretty high lol.

Well I hope you dont find yourself having zero fun again this year because I really enjoy your insights and overall positivity on this board lol.

I agree 100%. Prefer the college game over NBA. Go terps!

Watching a wizards game isn't the same anymore without Buchantz . When they got rid of Phil Chenier it was bad enough.

Mowed my yard yesterday for hopefully the last time this season.Mowed it one level lower than usual for the winter so it looks like my yard has more snow lol.

I counted 20 thats gives dc 1" or more.

Flipping through the individual members the eps leaves the door pretty wide open for possible outcomes. Some that look like the op but many 1 to 2 inchers with some more sizable ones sprinkled in also.

I think having almost 1/3rd of the members giving atleast 1" is very impressive for the first half of November. It really shows what a winter like pattern we are in.

Flipping through the eps members I was pleasantly surprised at how many gave us accumulating snow next week.I wasnt expecting that after seeing last nights OP run.

Cmc lol

Lol at the CMC. I'll take me 8 to 12 and like it. Don't want to post the snow map here. I'll post it over in the preseason fantasy snow thread. Edit- for next Tuesday

Alot of reaping by the end of the year lol

@showmethesnow Great write up as usual! Always enjoy reading your insights. Let's hope this is winter tipping it's hand.

Impressive cold for Mid November.

BWI : 19.7 DCA: 14.9 IAD: 24.3 RIC : 11.1 Tie Breaker SBY : 12.8 MBY : 29.7

Just coming back through northern Carroll county into Frederick county on 140 with Torrential rain. Not much lighting but the rain and wind was pretty intense for about 15 minutes.

18z GEFS has highs in the 30's to around 40 for next weekend with pretty much everyone below freezing for lows. Low 20's for lows Far N+W. Pretty Darn cold for the 1st half of November.

@NorthArlington101 GFS has been hinting around the 9th - 10th for a while now.its has cold chasing moisture around that time frame. Not out of the question that some areas could see some flakes towards the middle of the month. Heck- I had 7 inches last November 15th.

GEFS gets HL blocking going about a week from now and stays strong there after. This look in about 6 weeks please.

Atmospehieric memory for winter

The look from day 8 on is awesome. Let's hope it's winter tipping it hand.