Chris78

The one dropping in behind the initial SW at 114 Edit - That could help pull the precip field further west

That vort dropping in from behind has the look that could be good for us

Good enough improvement for me from 6 days out. Yesterday the GFS had killed off the storm completely.

Probably won't get it done this run but much improved at h5 and surface

GFS at H5 Is trying for next Monday/Tuesday.

2018 like?

Seems like we need to check the box on 10 things for us to snow. And if we are missing 1 of those items then it's no snow for you lol.

Meh. Not sure that helps our snow chances. I'd rather have just cold enough than "vodka cold ".

GFS looks like the cmc. Says what storm?

I'm sure it will look differnt in 6 hours because there are vorts everywhere . I counted atleast 6 vorts on the map I posted lol. My takeaway is that their are plenty of opportunities starting next week. Get your sleep this week lol.

Yea. It's says what storm??

Whichever GFS gives us the most snow is the GFS of choice lol

I would of thought the surface outcome would of been better with this look. GREAT look!!

Alot to be optimistic about right now. Starting next week through the end of January ( maybe longer) should offer several opportunities for snow. Could we get Skunked? Sure but with the AO and NAO negative with true blocking I think it would take alot of bad luck not hit on atleast one. First time in many years we have blocking when it matters. @Bob ChiII would always say it takes 3 or 4 opportunities to hit on 1. I think we will get plenty of opportunities.

GFS Para with a nice shift north. 6z and 00z for comparison.

Smith can't move

Looks like all 12z guidance has bumped south a bit. Probably not a bad place to 5/6 days out.

Basically every storm the last several weeks has trended further NW than modeled. Maybe that trend stops with the blocking that's being modeled but I wouldn't count on it. It seems blocking / confluence is overmodeled a good bit.

For 6 days out that looks pretty good to me.

We'll be tracking our Miller A while we are shoveling our SECS.

The normal north trend might help us out this time. Seems like confluence always ends up further north than forecasted . But temps may be an issue either way it seems

I pop in this morning after good runs yesterday and I'm like WTF happened overnight lol

That looks damn good if temps will cooperate.

Roads were very icy coming over the catoctins on the way home from work around 530 today. There was a car that went down an embankment from the ice. In Thurmont roads were fine but alot of ice on the trees. Wasn't till I was over 1000 ft in elevation that the roads were dicey. Once on the other side if the catoctins in Smithsburg roads were good again with some ice on trees. That added elevation makes all the difference with winter weather. There's been times when it's raining at home in Smithsburg but on top of route 77 there's several inches of snow.