winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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I was just taking a close look at it on the hour by hour color loop. RGEM shows a burst of heavy snow for a couple hours before it changes to the mix. Just as the sleet is about to take over, dynamics take over with the heavy precip to delay the mixing. Who knows if that's right, but it shows a good thump of snow.
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0z RGEM looks really good like the HRRR. Walt mentioned that those models tend to run a little warm, so hopefully those colder solutions are a good sign. Would like to believe we're going to get a few inches like those models show, but who knows. Still a very tough call as far as snow vs sleet.
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HRRR hasn't been great this winter. Let's hope this is an event that it's right about, but obviously we should be skeptical. This is long range for the HRRR too.
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Yeah they're showing snow now, but it's so close that we shouldn't be too optimistic yet. Tomorrow's model runs are the ones that will tell the story. Could go either way as far as getting a couple inches of snow or mostly sleet before it eventually changes to rain.
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Good to see some of the models showing a bit of a thump. Hopefully HRRR and GFS have a clue and we can get a couple inches before sleet, but I know there's the risk of it ending up more sleet. Very close call that we probably won't have a better idea on until late tomorrow. Even if it ends up being mostly sleet, that certainly beats freezing rain or rain. Glad this is looking like a decent winter weather threat.
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Euro just came in nice with 2 to 3 inches for our area. As Allsnow said it will come down to how quickly the mid level warming comes in. It'll be awhile before we figure out if we're going to pull off a couple inches of snow or if it'll be more sleet.
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Mid 40s feels good out there today. I'm going hunting this afternoon for the last time this season. Gonna be a nice afternoon to be out there.
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Some big snowflakes mixed in with the sleet under the bright echoes here.
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Yeah those bright radar echoes are mostly sleet. Oh well. At least we got a nice half inch coating of snow out there.
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Yeah we'll have to see if those heavy echoes to the west are sleet or snow.
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Looks like we could get a snow squall.
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Except the RGEM. That model has consistently showing an inch or so of snow for this area. Looks like RGEM for the win on this one. Nice to see it snowing out there with everything coated.
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Still just 29 degrees here. Temp isn't going anywhere near forecast today because it's cloudy.
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CMC looks good for next weekend's potential storm, but of course we're talking a week away. First we have to figure out what's gonna happen Wednesday. I don't care if they are front end type of storms ... I'm just glad we have interesting times ahead with the potential of getting a decent amount of snow in February. It beats very cold and dry.
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RGEM looks decent for Sunday night too. It's more likely to the north, but maybe we have a shot at getting a coating here. On Wednesday maybe we can get a light accumulation of snow/sleet before it changes to rain. I was just getting caught up on the longer range with the models. Wow GFS is a weenie's dream, lol. It does appear we'll have some chances but with precip type issues. I think we at least have a shot at a couple front end dump type of events. February looks interesting ... hopefully we can pull off a decent amount of snow. I'm glad we have an interesting period coming up.
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Only 0.02" here this morning. The evening batch of rain should be better. Hopefully a quarter to half inch for most of the area like the latest HRRR shows. We certainly need the rain.
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GFS keeps teasing us with bogus snow threats. It had a snow event for Saturday. Then Sunday. Now it's showing one for late Wednesday into Thursday next week. I doubt it's right as the other models are warmer for that potential event. You never know for sure, so we'll keep an eye on it. But I think next week is unlikely and we probably have to wait until the 2nd week of the month to have a better threat. Euro looks interesting in the long range. SnowGoose sounds optimistic that we'll see an event or two. Hopefully it's a decent pattern for mid February.
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We got lucky with over a foot of snow between those 2 snow events here during that week last February. Just goes to show that you never know. The pattern last February wasn't very good yet we got plenty of snow. I know it isn't looking great right now, but there's no way I'm giving up on winter on January 28th. It hasn't been bad to this point either with 10 inches of snow here. We just had snow on the ground for a week. Obviously we will be falling well below average in snowfall though if we don't see much in the next few weeks. Hopefully we'll see a good storm or two in February.
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I see UKMET is starting to pick up on Sunday's threat as well. The good thing is we have fresh cold air coming in Saturday, so it could be cold enough for a little accumulating snow on Sunday. What GFS shows certainly would be nice, but obviously we have a long way to go.
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Like I said it's not that big of a deal. A few people commented on how bad that OT is. When I saw that I agreed and commented about it too. Then I noticed that my post was deleted while the others stayed, so that confused me and I mentioned that to Rjay. I see you just deleted Brian's post too. It was just a few short posts, so it's not as if you had a bunch to read through.
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But other people made similar posts that didn't get deleted. Odd that just 1 of the posts (mine) got singled out, but whatever. I'm not the one that brought up the subject.
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Yeah I knew you didn't do it. You're the best. I have an idea who did it, but I'll just leave it at that lol. Not that big of a deal.
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Yeah it's something how Thursday went from looking like a significant cold shot to now a fairly mild day. It now looks as if we'll make it up to 40. But the warm first week of February that some people were talking about doesn't look likely anymore. Actually looks like a chilly week now. As long as we continue to have cold air in the long range we have a shot. Hopefully a threat will pop up for early February.
