winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Yeah for NE NJ, but our area is probably done. HRRR keeps it well north and east of Middlesex County now. We were fortunate to avoid the very heavy stuff.
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Yeah I'm a little west of you here in the northwest part of Middlesex County. I guess the heavier stuff missed my area by just a few miles.
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0.97" here so far. Glad the heavy stuff has missed my area so far. Obviously still some more downpours coming for the afternoon. Latest HRRR (13z run) says this area gets another half inch to inch.
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Yep I agree. For our area a little west of the city, it's a big question mark.
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Who the heck knows for our area. As you said we could get a half inch or a few inches.
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I see the 3km is still going with the idea of more of a run of the mill heavy rain event. 1 to 3 inches for most people. Hopefully that along with the HRRR backing down is a sign that the tri-state is gonna avoid an epic flood event. Still a major event, and obviously and we can't discount the possibility of something more dramatic.
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0z HRRR has us right near the edge of the very heavy stuff. Go west into Somerset County and amounts drop off to very little. Extremely close call for our area.
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Yeah the models are all over the place as you'd expect.
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Lets's hope. If it was the winter I'd be rooting hard to get hit by a lot of snow from an inverted trough, but we don't need any more heavy rain right now. Hopefully this will keep trending east, but who knows. Extremely difficult forecast.
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Yeah 3km is suddlenly much less bullish on anyone in the tri-state getting huge amounts. Keeps the extremely heavy stuff to the southeast off the coast. As many have pointed out, this is the type of event that is incredibly hard to predict. We won't know until tomorrow what area will get under the extremely heavy band. Hopefully it will miss like 3km NAM shows, but who knows.
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That's going to be a much-needed drying out period after friday's big rain event. Looks like high temps mid-upper 70s for our area sunday through most of next week. Maybe close to 80 a couple of the days early week. Looking forward to next week.
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Yeah we probably have some wet weather coming in for Thursday into Friday, but hopefully it'll be out of the way in time for the weekend. Euro and GFS have a dry weekend. CMC dries it out for late Saturday and Sunday. Right now I would lean towards a dry Saturday, but the models have been going back and forth. It's questionable right now.
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2.96" here so far. Yeah I'm tired of this miserable weather too. 3 days of chilly mostly light to moderate rain. Awful. I enjoyed all our storms during the summer but not this event. We did have that tremendous tropical downpour at 4:30 in the morning yesterday that gave us close to three quarters of an inch in a short period of time. That downpour was so loud that it woke me up even though we didn't have any thunder. I was half asleep but got up to look out the window briefly. I wish we could have gotten that one during the day so we could enjoy it. But other than that it has been boring miserable light to moderate rain for days. Looking forward to better weather. We should get some sunshine on wednesday. The models have been going back and forth on next weekend but right now they're showing the storm well offshore and a nice weekend. It's early but hopefully that'll hold. Longer range pattern looks warmer for early October. Would be nice to get some sunny days with temps well up in the 70s.
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.72" here. Getting into a good break now ... looks as if it's mostly over for today (just drizzle and a couple more showers). The rain never got very heavy here, but a lot of light to moderate rain. Lasted a long time so it added up to a decent amount. Probably a much more significant amount of rain tomorrow. As you said, good timing on a football weekend. We'll be enjoying a football Sunday tomorrow, so won't care much about the weather.
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0.48" here so far.
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.2" for me too. Looks as if it's gonna pick up over the next couple hours before we get into a break in the afternoon. Maybe that can get us to .50" to .75" for today. Tomorrow continues to look a lot more impressive than today.
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RGEM gives us about a half inch tomorrow but very heavy rain on sunday.
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And that's what the 3km NAM shows now. It backed down on the heavy rain for tomorrow but gives us heavy rain on Sunday.
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3km NAM not nearly as intense with the rain tomorrow morning. This run only gets a half inch up to our area after the 18z run had hit us hard with an inch and a half. But the regular NAM beefed it up and gives us a little over an inch.
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LOL I don't run on saturdays anyway. Boy you're in the mood to troll me these days, lol. The other day you got 21 weenies for the 2 posts you made where you said you were keeping track of my posts about humidity. 21 weenies. You might have set a record for weenies, lol. And I realize it's gonna be a rainy day tomorrow. But the models are all over the place on whether it will be just a light to moderate amount or much more significant. Who knows.
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Which is why I wouldn't be overconfident about our area getting a ton of rain this weekend. It might happen or it might not. Look at all the events we had this summer. Some overperformed big-time and some were big busts. The models are wildly inconsistent.
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RGEM not impressed with tomorrow's round. Dries it up and mainly light rain during the day tomorrow with round 1. Not even a half inch for me. But whether we get just a half inch tomorrow or the wetter models end up being right and it's over an inch, I don't care. Either way it's a miserable saturday with outdoor plans ruined for everyone.
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And most of that UKMET rain is sunday into sunday night. Struggles to get it north tomorrow like some of the other models. Ends up being an impressive event on some models despite not much tomorrow.
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Who knows. Hard to predict what area will be near the cutoff as far as heavy rain vs light rain tomorrow. Stormlover is right when he says it could go either way for our area.
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Yeah that's an embarrassing shift for the CMC. It went from showing heavy rain coming in dramatically tomorrow morning to now just light rain. I think JM is gonna be on the money about the confluence eating up tomorrow's rain, but we shall see.
