winterwx21

I agree. I would be very skeptical of any model run that gives us an inch or so of front end snow. With the temps and warm ground, it would probably be just a little non accumulating wet snow during the afternoon.

Yeah Euro and CMC both say we have a shot at breaking the record. Hardly any front end snow on those models.

12z Euro has hardly any front end snow for us. Maybe a slushy coating on colder surfaces at best, and then heavy rain wednesday night.

Maybe an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by rain. 12z CMC and GFS say it won't even be that much. The models also give us some rain at the end of the month, the time period in which we were supposed to be in a cold window. All you can do is laugh at this point. This winter is that bad.

Keep in mind that's a 10:1 ratio map. A Kuchera ratio map would show quite a bit less, since snow ratios won't be good with this storm.

Ugly 12z runs of CMC and EURO for the midweek storm. Both show a cutter with rain even well to the northwest. CMC doesn't even give any front end snow, while Euro gives just a little bit slightly to the northwest of NYC and then a quick changeover to rain. I think this storm is gonna end up like all our other storms in this miserable winter.

I see NAM finally woke up. The 12z run doesn't have any snow for NYC and you have to go well NW to see any accumulation. RGEM is a much better model than NAM and this was another example of that.

0z RGEM still showing all rain. Not even any snow for extreme northwest NJ on the RGEM. Even if a compromise happens between NAM and RGEM, the NYC area wouldn't get any snow. I'll be shocked if this one works out, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case the NAM is onto something.

It rains in NYC on 0z NAM, but it changes the rain over to snow and manages to give NYC a few inches monday morning. We know how unlikely that is. NAM will probably come to reality tomorrow.

This winter is so bad that getting an inch from a clipper would be thrilling at this point.

Probably NAM being terrible in its long range like usual. RGEM at hour 84 is much warmer than this. RGEM has been a much better model than NAM in recent years.

Good chance both of these events won't work out for NYC, and then just cold/dry for several days after that before a big warmup in early February. Slight chance next wednesday will work out or that we'll score something during the cold window late month, but I'm thinking it's more likely we'll get to mid February without an inch of snow for NYC. That would be off the charts horrible.

Euro also came in warmer for the wednesday storm. This 0z run doesn't have the front end dump for NYC that the 12z run had. Mostly rain for NYC and you have to go to northwest NJ to get some accumulating snow on this run.

0z Euro doesn't look good for sunday night either. You have to go way NW. Maybe a couple inches for Sussex county. What we're seeing tonight isn't a surprise ... this event hasn't looked good for awhile.

CMC pretty warm for the midweek storm as well. We'll have to see if Euro holds with the colder solution tonight.

Yeah the Euro gives even NYC a decent front end dump. I'm guessing it will trend warmer like all our other storms have, but it's a week away and at least we can say we have slight hope for that one.

It just hit 58 here! I'm going to go for a run outside with a t-shirt on. Love it!

12z Euro too warm for the NYC area sunday, but has a decent snowfall for northwest NJ.

Euro still very warm for the sunday night storm. Only extreme NW New Jersey gets a little bit of snow before changing over to heavy rain on the run. It's also showing a warm cutter for the mid next week storm.

Yeah the 0z CMC gives northwest NJ 1 to 2 inches of snow before changing to rain. All rain for NYC. Problem is there just isn't much cold air in place. NW areas could get away with that and see a little front end snow, but I doubt the NYC area can. I see the same problem for the mid next week storm. I think we're gonna have to wait until the pattern changes and we actually have cold air in place in very late January before we have a better chance, but of course we'll keep an eye on the 2 storms before the colder pattern because you never know for sure at this range.

Bump.

Maybe you should try to remember the post you made on page 17 where you said you're rooting for the major cities to get less than 5 inches of snow this winter. That sure sounded like you giving up on this winter, so you don't have any room to be criticizing other people that have been honest about how bleak the situation is this winter.

I'm not sure what you mean. The storm for late this week or late next week? I was just making the point that a week ago there were some model runs that teased us with some colder solutions for this week's late week storm (the 19th). I remember back then saying I thought it would trend warmer, and it has. Everything shows rain for this thursday. I think you misunderstood my post. So now I'm saying I think the late next week storm (day 9 storm) will trend warmer as well, since the pattern hasn't changed much yet by that point.

Early on some model runs teased us with this thursday's storm, but of course it's ending up warm. Same for the sunday into monday storm, but now all models give us rain. I'm guessing it's the same thing for the day 9 storm now, and it'll trend warmer as it gets closer like all other storms this winter. But of course we'll keep an eye on it just in case. You never know for sure with weather. The good news is that it appears likely that we're finally gonna have a cold pattern for a little while (maybe a week) late in the month after that potential day 9 storm. Hopefully finally having some extended cold will give us a better chance of scoring. It might not work out, but at least it gives me a little more hope right now.

Just hit 52 degrees here. Temps well above forecast today.